Western Conference Finals Predictions: Game by Game Picks for Spurs vs Thunder

Early in the 2025-26 NBA season, it became pretty evident that the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs were on a collision course for a matchup in the playoffs. Fortunately, the newest rivalry in the NBA will take place in the Western Conference Finals.

While Oklahoma City finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA, it lost four of five games in head-to-head matchups versus San Antonio. Those contests also showed how much bad blood there is between Victor Wembanyama and the Thunder, which adds even more intrigue to the series.

With that in mind, let’s dive into our Western Conference Finals predictions.

Game 1: Oklahoma City Thunder 113, San Antonio Spurs 109

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Oklahoma City is expected to get back wing Jalen Williams for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, an added boost for a team that’s already well-rested. Wembanyama and the Spurs have already proven they can go into the Paycom Center and win, but the extra time to prepare paired with the home-court advantage can swing Game 1. We expect it to be a tight game from start to finish, but 30-plus points from Wembanyama with Ajay Mitchell and Williams combining for 30-plus will propel Oklahoma City to a Game 1 win.

Game 2: San Antonio Spurs 117, Oklahoma City Thunder 110

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The Spurs will steal one from the Thunder; that’s one of our Western Conference Finals predictions we feel strongest about. Wembanyama has already demonstrated he can completely neutralize Chet Holmgren, and the Spurs also have the guard depth to match up with Oklahoma City. In Game 2, Wembanyama puts up 35-plus points with 5 blocks and 2 steals in one of the most dominant two-way performances of the entire NBA playoffs. Plus, Dylan Harper comes off the bench with 18 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists to help San Antonio even the series as it returns home.

Game 3: San Antonio Spurs 108, Oklahoma City Thunder 105

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In the first Western Conference Finals home game for the franchise since May 22, 2017, we’re expecting a raucous environment at the Frost Bank Center. This is another rivalry game where we see the bad blood between the Spurs and Thunder feeding into an electric atmosphere. While Oklahoma City is typically a team that avoids mistakes, the NBA Finals last year showed that they can experience some lapses and turnovers. Against a well-coached team like San Antonio, which also has the length and defensive versatility to pressure Gilgeous-Alexander and shut down passing lanes, we think the Spurs come out on top at home. San Antonio takes a 2-1 series lead in the Western Conference Finals, with Wembanyama averaging nearly 30 points, 12 rebounds and 4 blocks per contest.

Game 4: Oklahoma City Thunder 116, San Antonio Spurs 110

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In a pivotal game on the road, Oklahoma City’s playoff experience saves them from being on the brink of elimination. Jalen Williams should have shaken off the rust by now since his return, giving the Thunder the bucket-getter who can take over a game. With so much defensive pressure on SGA, Williams replicates his standout performance from the NBA Finals last year with 35-plus points, including five three-pointers made. It’s Williams’ resurgence and some clutch minutes from the bench that allow the Thunder to even the series by taking Game 4 in San Antonio.

Game 5: San Antonio Spurs 120, Oklahoma City Thunder 113

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We expect this Spurs vs. Thunder clash in the Western Conference Finals to be a regular thing for years to come. One theme of this rivalry, in our view, will be Oklahoma City and San Antonio finding ways to steal wins on the road. That’s our expectation in Game 5, this time with De’Aaron Fox leading the way with a double-double. The Spurs will have five players (Fox, Wembanyama, Harper, Stephon Castle and Keldon Johnson) put up double-digit points, and that leads San Antonio to win on the road for the second time this series.

Game 6: Oklahoma City Thunder 114, San Antonio Spurs 104

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We’re projecting San Antonio to have a shot to close out the Western Conference Finals at home in Game 6. It won’t be pulled off. While a great third-quarter performance from Gilgeous-Alexander will effectively put the Spurs away in this one, it’s going to be a breakout game from Chet Holmgren (22 points, 11 rebounds and 5 blocks) that proves to be the difference-maker early. Oklahoma City rolls to a Game 6 victory, with this being the biggest point differential in the entire seven-game series.

Game 7: Oklahoma City Thunder 111, San Antonio Spurs 109

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Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals will determine who is crowned the NBA champion this season. That’s because San Antonio and Oklahoma City are both a tier above whatever team comes out of the Eastern Conference. In this winner-take-all game, the Spurs come out sluggish out of the gate in a hostile environment and even trail by double-digits in the second quarter. Some halftime adjustments and an extremely motivated Wembanyama are a recipe for a comeback. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein won’t have any answers when Wembanyama makes his case for being the best player in the NBA right now. That sets up for a tight game in the closing minutes. Once again, Gilgeous-Alexander steps up in the clutch. We’re projecting a 40-burger in Game 7 for SGA, including double-digit points in the fourth quarter to help the Thunder clinch the Western Conference Finals.

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