What Brendan Sorsby's potential absence could mean for Big 12 race: BYU, Utah rise up to challenge Texas Tech

Taking Sorsby out of the equation cools Texas Tech's Big 12 chances a bit, but the Red Raiders under Joey McGuire have built something sturdier than a one-player ceiling. Heading into 2026, this roster still profiles like a team capable of navigating the weekly grind and emerging in Arlington with a title shot.

If not, these are the next-best choices after the potentially conference-altering news:

BYU (+600)

The Cougars lost two games last season, both against Texas Tech, and they do not play the Red Raiders in 2026 before a potential meeting in the league title game. With several impactful returning starters and nine transfers who are each expected to find a spot within the two-deep, BYU reloaded to an extent and strengthened an already potent lineup. That includes the additions of former standout California linebacker Cade Uluave, Utah State offensive tackle Jr Sia and former USC tight end Walker Lyons. The biggest question concerning a team that finished one victory shy of getting to the playoff in 2025 comes on defense, where Kelly Poppinga was promoted to coordinator following Jay Hill's departure to the Big Ten.

Utah (+750)

Despite Kyle Whittingham and Jason Beck's exit to Michigan, the Utes expect to be one of the league's best with standout offensive talent Devon Dampier, Wayshawn Parker and Byrd Ficklin returning. Morgan Scalley has been on staff since the 2008 season and is not planning on changing the Utes' physicality-first mindset as coach. A former Mountain West Co-Defensive Player of the Year during his playing days, Scalley's defenses at Utah have been fierce over the past decade, and that unit addressed roster holes in the portal with potency.

Kansas State (+1500)

Collin Klein's first season as the Wildcats' coach comes with a disclaimer — if Avery Johnson is as good as advertised as a senior under his former lead recruiter, Kansas State's offense should flourish. Klein convinced 27 transfers to join him this cycle, along with 16 early enrollees at a program in transition with its first-year staff. Most of the talent comes within a defensive unit that's expected to produce seven new starters from the portal. Former Oklahoma State star Wendell Gregory is a game-wrecker off the edge and should help the Wildcats absorb losing a pair of starting pass rushers to Indiana. Like BYU and Utah, Kansas State also misses Texas Tech on its Big 12 slate.

Houston (+1600)

There's no more talented quarterback room in the conference than what's currently in Willie Fritz's possession at Houston. Not only is Conner Weigman back after winning 10 games, but the Cougars also signed Keisean Henderson, the 2026 recruiting cycle's top-ranked player overall. NIL enhancements in recent years mean the buy-in is high under Fritz, who identified a couple of needs this portal cycle and landed big-time players, including Shadre Hurst and Anthony Boswell up front, along with linebacker Jaden Yates, who started at Ole Miss last fall. The Cougars play Texas Tech early on Friday, Sept. 18, in Lubbock.