What do 2026 Kentucky Derby weather predictions show? Will it rain?

The Kentucky Derby had five straight years of a dry track surface at Churchill Downs before last year's rain muddied 2025 winner Sovereignty and jockey Junior Alvarado.

With this year's 152nd Run for the Roses set for a 6:57 p.m. post time, will the 2026 winner suffer the same fate or will they come out clean and dry?

Here's what to know about Saturday's weather forecast and the weather history on the Kentucky Derby:

Kentucky Derby 2026 weather forecast

All signs point to a dry Saturday. Partly cloudy skies with a high around 61 degrees and low of 38 degrees with winds blowing north at 5-10 miles per hour are expected for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, according to The Weather Channel's website.

What was the 2025 Kentucky Derby weather?

Sovereignty won the 151st Run for the Roses on a sloppy track after 0.37 inches of rain fell on Churchill Downs last year. It ended a five-year streak of Derby horses running on a fast track. The high of the cloudy day was 65 degrees.

How often does it rain on Kentucky Derby Day?

According to the National Weather Service, 72 out of 150 Derby Days (48%) have experienced rain at some point during the day.

What was the hottest Kentucky Derby temperature?

Louisville reached a high of 94 degrees during the Derby in 1959. Tommy Lee won the race that year.

What was the coldest Kentucky Derby temperature?