Arsenal and Manchester City are in a tight race for the Premier League title, with the possibility of a playoff if they finish level on points. Historical context shows the rarity of such late-season showdowns between title rivals.
Key points
Arsenal and Manchester City could finish level on points
A playoff game would determine the Premier League champion
Historical context includes rare late-season title rival matches
Manchester City defeated Arsenal 4-1 in a crucial 2023 match
Goal difference is a tiebreaker in the Premier League
Manchester City face Arsenal this Sunday in the kind of Premier League title showdown fans have craved for years.
Back in 2012, City hosted Manchester United on the third-to-last matchday in a game billed at the time as the biggest in the league's 20-year history. Their 1-0 victory at the Etihad Stadium set them on course to become English champions for the first time since the late 1960s as they finished top of the standings on goal difference.
Since then, this sort of late-season meeting between the main title rivals with so much still at stake has been a rarity. Three spring to mind, all involving City.
They lost 3-2 at Liverpool in April 2014 but won all their remaining six games to clinch the league ahead of the Reds, whose infamous home defeat to Chelsea and draw at Crystal Palace proved costly. Eight years later, City's 2-2 draw at home to Jurgen Klopp's team helped them to keep their noses in front in the race over the final seven matchdays. And in 2023, City's 4-1 thrashing of Arsenal, also with seven games to follow, meant they closed to within two points of the top but with two games in hand, taking the title race out of the Gunners' hands.
But this weekend's meeting feels much more in the mould of that Manchester derby of 14 years ago, decided by a towering Vincent Kompany header. Accounting for City's game in hand, there seems so little to split the top two in the standings that this match has the feeling of a winner-takes-all contest — and there is the potential for a unique twist this time.
Q&A
What happens if Arsenal and Manchester City finish level on points in the Premier League?
If Arsenal and Manchester City finish level on points, a unique playoff game will be held to determine the Premier League champion.
When was the last time Manchester City faced a title rival in a crucial late-season match?
The last significant late-season match involving Manchester City and a title rival was in 2023 when they defeated Arsenal 4-1.
How does goal difference affect the Premier League title race?
Goal difference is a critical tiebreaker in the Premier League; if teams finish level on points, the team with the superior goal difference is crowned champion.
What historical events led to the need for a playoff in the Premier League?
The playoff scenario arises from the rarity of teams finishing level on points, with the last notable instance being Manchester City's title win in 2012 decided by goal difference.
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If we get a repeat of the 1-1 scoreline from the reverse fixture in September, this season's Premier League title may be the first in history to be decided by an extra game. Let us explain how it works.
As per official league regulations, the Premier League standings are ordered by points. The team with the most finishes tops, and the team with the fewest finishes bottom.
If two or more teams are level on points, the first tiebreaker used to separate them is goal difference (goals conceded subtracted from goals scored). The 2011/12 season was the first in which the title was decided in this way: Man City and Man United both finished on 89 points, but City were eight goals better off, so they came first and won the league.
If goal difference is also equal, the team with the most goals scored finishes higher. If points, goal difference and goals scored are all the same, then those level teams are judged to have finished in the same position, unless the teams concerned are competing for the title, European qualification, or to avoid relegation.
This is where things get really interesting for Arsenal and Man City.
What happens if Arsenal and Man City finish exactly level?
If Arsenal and Man City are level on points, goal difference and goals scored after 38 games, their positions in the table will be decided by the following criteria:
Points earned in head-to-head matches
Away goals scored in head-to-head matches.
Now, if Sunday's game finishes 1-1 (as the reverse fixture did), that presents the intriguing possibility that Arsenal and City could end the season exactly equal in terms of points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head points and away goals scored in head-to-head matches.
In that scenario, a playoff game at a neutral stadiumwill be used to decide who wins the league, with the "format, timing and venue" to be determined by the Premier League board.
When and where would a title playoff take place?
The league's board would have to decide on the logistics of such a game, but there are a few factors to consider.
First, it is assumed that the playoff would be treated like a cup final, meaning that extra time and penalties would be used to decide the winner if the scores are level at the end of 90 minutes. However, it's possible that a replay could be used if the game finishes as a draw.
Then, there is the matter of when and where to stage the game. Wembley Stadium might feel the obvious choice as England's national arena, but City might object to the idea of playing at a location that would involve less travel for Arsenal. Somewhere more equidistant between the clubs, such as Villa Park in Birmingham, might be a better option.
There is also the issue of how to fit the game in. The FA Cup final (May 16) takes place before the league finishes this season (the final matchday is May 24), but there is the possibility that Arsenal will be in the Champions League final on May 30. The Gunners may be against the idea of an EPL title playoff being scheduled in the six days between the last round of league matches and the biggest game in European club football in Budapest, so they might request a slot in early June.
The trouble with that idea is that many national teams will begin pre-World Cup warm-up camps in that final week in May, with some — including the United States, Mexico, Switzerland, Germany and Brazil — all scheduled to play friendlies on May 31. There will be several more such games in the first 10 days of June before the World Cup begins on June 11, and those national teams will be eager to have their full contingent of players as early as possible in order to make the most of their limited preparation time. A Premier League title playoff would be a big inconvenience, given Arsenal and City would obviously not want to let their best players leave for World Cup training camps beforehand.
In other words, somebody will need to compromise somewhere.
Has there ever been a Premier League title playoff before?
It is, of course, extremely unlikely that a playoff will be needed. Not only would we need Sunday's game to end in a 1-1 draw, but we'd then require the implausible scenario that both Arsenal and City end up with the same points, goal difference and goals scored.
As such, it's understandable that this sort of scenario has never happened before, either in the Premier League or the modern iterations of Europe's big-five leagues.
There was the possibility of a playoff to decide last season's Serie A title race, with Napoli heading into the final matchday leading the standings by a point ahead of Inter Milan. Both title challengers won their last games, though, so Napoli finished a point clear at the top.
There is a good chance that a Scudetto playoff will happen eventually. A new rule was introduced in 2022 that means a one-off deciding game must take place between the top two if they finish the season level on points, regardless of goal difference or head-to-head results.
