What if Ty Simpson is Les Snead’s insurance for a McVay-Stafford retirement?

Snead and the Simpsons

Let's go back a little bit. Ty Simpson's father is Jason Simpson, the UT Martin Skyhawks head football coach since 2006. According to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer, Snead and Jason Simpson have a strong relationship, and Snead advised Simpson on the decision to declare for the draft or to return to college.

"Rams GM Les Snead and UT-Martin coach Jason Simpson have a very strong relationship—to the point where Snead helped advise the family when Jason's son, Ty, was making a decision on whether or not to declare for the draft," reported Breer.

Snead spoke about the relationship during the Rams' post-draft presser.

“Jason, we’ve probably been in football about the same amount of years," Snead said. "When I was playing in the SEC, he was playing in the SEC. He got into coaching. I don't have a real personal relationship other than he's been very successful with UT Martin. Dresser Winn, who was one of his QBs has been a part of us."

"And yes, I did chat with Jason and the family. I do that with other players before the draft. It’s more the CAC, that advisory type of evaluation role that we have. A lot of times college coaches will ask you to sit down with different players as they're trying to go through the process and you're trying to give them some bullet points on what to expect.”

Winn has played on the Rams for the last three offseasons before leaving as part of their final roster cuts. Winn has never played for another NFL team. Simpson was a projected late first-round/early second-round prospect. The Rams then revealed they asked Simpson not to tell other teams about their meeting with him, confirming how much they orchestrated things behind the scenes to land him.

Why Simpson?

There's no conspiracy; Snead loves Simpson. The lingering thought I had Thursday night was why Snead decided to choose Simpson at 13. There was a clear path to select a player at 13 who can win immediately, and then trade back into the first to get Simpson. Win-win.

That second part is why I believe Snead made the move at 13. I speculate Snead told Simpson the Rams would draft him at 13, and that's why Simpson declared for the draft.

NFL insider Tom Pelissero reports that before Simpson played in the Rose Bowl with the Alabama Crimson Tide, Simpson's father Jason was making calls to judge NFL interest in his son. Pelissero reports that Simpson leaned heavily on Snead's opinion, which was that Simpson was a first-round pick. Snead said the floor for Simpson was the first round.

Why could he say that? Because Snead could guarantee it.

Simpson was offered $6.5 million from the University of Miami to transfer. Miami just played for a national title, helped get Cam Ward drafted No. 1 overall in 2024, rehabilitated Carson Beck's career last season, and is expected to be one of the best teams in football again.

The top draft pick in the second round, an area Simpson was nationally projected to be selected around, makes $13.3 million over four years and only $2.4 million in Year 1. Why would Simpson give up more short-term money, with the likelihood of being a top draft pick next season?

Because the 13th overall pick makes $25.4 million over four years, with $4.6 million in Year 1. Fully guaranteed. On a team that's a perennial contender.

So, why now?

Snead thinks this is the guy of the future. But this is the Rams. This is Sean McVay. He can win with a variety of quarterbacks. Why risk the present by not adding another instant contributor to ensure the future? McVay and Snead were in total command of the situation, and this is who they wanted for a while.

By adding Simpson, the Rams have a clear successor for Stafford, while being able to use their future first-round picks for players in future drafts or to use as trade value for other veterans. However, there's something that's been irking me about this situation.

Considering the state of the team, expected negotiations for Matthew Stafford, and the fact that the team is about to shell out hundreds of millions of dollars in contract extensions over the next 24 months, after already giving Trent McDuffie a record-setting deal, why select a quarterback now?

The Rams are adamant that Stafford could play for several more years, so this isn't a situation where Simpson's rookie deal would provide the immediate financial relief needed to extend others, as Stafford is still expected to be around. So why do you draft Simpson now, knowing Stafford is likely to receive top-10 quarterback money for several years of Simpson's rookie deal? Puka Nacua, Jared Verse, and others are likely to see record extensions, while their contemporaries will likely get top dollar, too.

This is a move you make as a general manager if you think those likelihoods aren't as likely as they seem. Covering the Rams for the last several years, I have heard Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Davante Adams make jokes and comments about their futures.

McVay already flirted with retirement in 2022, has a cushy, stress-free media career waiting for him, already has a title in hand, and has other responsibilities outside of football, including a growing family. He's also been very non-committal about being a playcaller in the future. One has to wonder if he has such a laissez-faire attitude about an element of his career for which he is universally beloved, if he wasn't already thinking about the future away from the game.

Stafford joked that by the time the 2028 Summer Olympics reached Los Angeles, he would be out of football. That was before the 2025 season, so his mindset could have changed but that's a timeline of three seasons if it hasn't.

Davante Adams even stated that he's likely retiring with Stafford.

Now, look at Snead. Has anything about his actions screamed the end? Who is the one person out of the Rams' brain trust, whose job directly relies on on-field performance and who hasn't spoken about retirement at all? Snead. Yes, the entire front office must perform, but the buck stops with Snead, and he doesn't want this train to end soon.

Now, let's look at everything Snead has done over the last year. Extended a running back, defensive back, and linebacker. Has Snead ever done that, especially in training camp, and then in the middle of the season? Snead's evolving with the times, something a man who wants to keep their job for the future does.

It's my opinion that Snead orchestrated this move for Simpson, starting back in December, because he's about to go all-in, and McVay isn't going to be around for the bill.

Overall theory

In 2021, the Rams went all-in, won Super Bowl LVI, and then suffered the worst season they ever had under McVay in 2022. Things got so bad that season, McVay almost quit football, gave up play-calling to Liam Coen for one game, and allowed his entire staff to seek new jobs as he contemplated the future.

I think that's going to happen again, but in a less dramatic way, as I think he's going to walk away. Whenever Stafford calls it quits, McVay could leave too, as long as they get a title. Snead already stated Simpson will help them go all-in again, but how do you go all-in without breaking the bank? Push the bill down the road.

I see the Rams going all-in during Stafford's final season, McVay and Stafford going out together, leaving Simpson's final year of his rookie deal and his fifth-year option to pay the bill, while the Rams use remaining resources to keep a championship defense intact. That's how they'll pay their top guys, while adding top talent, using Stan Kroenke's abundant resources to create low cap hits now, and bigger ones down the road, with void years attached to them.

This might be a bridge too far, but I also feel like Chris Shula is the heir apparent to McVay, and they're going to use his stacked defense to cover up any issues from a post-McVay/Stafford departure, such as the big bill coming due.

Simpson allows the Rams to keep most of their picks, instead of having to trade up for a passer next season; he's clearly okay with waiting his turn; he's a coach's son. You could not design a better person for this scenario. He's literally built for this.

Then, the team can capitalize on the Stafford era, before making the transition. McVay can work with a lot of quarterbacks, but you get a guy to groom, in case he isn't there. Shula and McVay are best friends, Shula has been with the Rams since McVay took the job, he knows the team, the culture, and has a strong relationship with the front office.

There are a gluttony of McVay playcallers who could run the offense, but very few who are able to run the Rams. Shula is that guy, Simpson allows Snead to pull off this move, and after Jared Goff and the (in my opinion) unconvincing explanation of McVay's lack of enthusiasm regarding Simpson's draft call, everything about this screams the emotions of a man who will not be there to see the results.

At least that's my take anyway.

This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: What if Simpson is Snead’s insurance for a McVay-Stafford retirement?