What is the Bills' 2026 strength of schedule based on projected wins?

The 2026 NFL schedule will be released in the next couple of weeks, per USA Today's Joe Rivera. The Buffalo Bills may not know when they are playing their opponents this fall, but they know who they'll be playing.

And with this in mind, it's not too early to examine the challenges that Buffalo will face with their opponents.

Traditionally, many analysts rank a team's strength of schedule by compiling the records of the upcoming opponents from the previous season. This leaves quite a bit to be desired, as teams do not have the same roster construction as the previous season. In addition, the impact of different schedules from the previous season does not directly affect future seasons.

Analyst Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analytics takes a different approach when examining a team's strength of schedule. Sharp uses every team's projected win total as the central figure in determining each team's upcoming schedule strength.

Buffalo slots in at just above the midway point in the league, projecting to have the 14th-easiest schedule, per Sharp.

Buffalo is projected to return to the top of the AFC East, with Vegas forecasting an average win total of 10.5 victories. New England's win total according to Las Vegas is 9.5 wins, while the New York Jets and Miami have two of the lowest win totals, at 5.5 wins and 4.5 wins, respectively.

How Buffalo's opponents are determined

Buffalo will place each team in their division twice. As usual, Buffalo will play home-and-away games against New England, New York, and Miami.

Buffalo will play all four teams from an AFC division. This year, Buffalo will play the AFC West.

Buffalo will also play four games against an NFC division. Buffalo will see teams from the NFC North to fulfill this part of the schedule.

The Bills will play two games against teams in the remaining divisions of the AFC. Since Buffalo finished second, the Bills will face off against the second-place team in the AFC South and AFC North.

The 17th game is against a team from a non-conference team that finished in the same divisional place as the Bills. For this final game, the Buffalo will face off with the second-place team from the NFC West.