What Maple Leafs need to happen in NHL Draft lottery to keep 1st-round pick from Bruins

What do Maple Leafs need to happen in lottery?

The Maple Leafs need to end up with a top-five pick.

The first-rounder they traded is top-five protected, which means that's the only area of the board that Toronto keeps its own pick.

If it falls outside the top-five, Boston gets the selection.

The Maple Leafs have the fifth-best lottery odds, which means their pick can fall no lower than seventh.

They have an 8.5% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick.

There's an 8.6% chance the Leafs get the second pick, and a less than half a percent chance of the third pick.

Toronto has a 24.5% chance of the No. 5 pick.

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The danger zone is the 44.0% chance of landing at No. 6, and the 14.2% chance of ending up at No. 7.

In those approximately 58.2% of scenarios, the Leafs give their pick to the Bruins.

It's worth noting: If the Leafs convey their pick this year, they keep their 2027 first-rounder. If the Leafs keep their pick this year, Boston gets Toronto's 2027 first-rounder with no protections.

But in this stacked draft class, the Maple Leafs would surely like to keep their pick.

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