What to expect from Matt Waldron

Waldron gets hit hard

It should not be surprising, nor should everyone panic, that his first outing did not impress. His 12 innings in Triple-A were great, no runs allowed and only one walk with 12 strikeouts. But there remains a big difference between Triple-A hitters and the big-league level. Waldron’s command was not sharp on top of the fact that he wasn’t getting his usual movement on his fastball. He only lasted 3.2 innings and allowed eight hits and six earned runs, walking one and striking out four. With his velocity, he has to have command and be efficient in order to be successful. He was both of those things in 2024, when he was the most effective pitcher on the San Diego Padres roster for at least half the season. In that season, he used the knuckleball the same amount as he did in his unsuccessful start for the Padres on April 17.

Velocity increased

The biggest difference, other than the result, between this version of Waldron and the one we have seen in the past is that he is slimmer and stronger. Devoting his offseason to getting in better shape, Waldron has added a significant uptick in velocity on all his pitches. Fastball velocity now averages 92.5 mph (tops at 94-95), up from 90.1 from 2025. His cutter now sits 88.8 average, up from 87. His sinker is averaging 91.9, up from 89.8 last year. His slider is now 81.8, up from 81 last season. His knuckle ball averages 80.9 and was 79.4 last season. Using a five-pitch mix, Waldron now throws his fastball, slider and knuckleball most frequently. In his one start with the Padres, he still threw the knuckler more than any other pitch, but his fastball usage was about 20% and his knuckler at 37%. The sinker and cutter are both under 10% of his offerings and the slider was thrown 25% of the time. Unfortunately, the fastball was left over the plate too often and he did not have the best feel for his knuckle ball during his outing.

Stuff is improved

Despite the lack of command and execution last Friday, his stuff is rated higher this season than in years past. According to FanGraphs, his Stuff+ has taken a jump on all of his pitches. With 100 being the average quality of a pitch for a starter in MLB, Waldron has a 98 rating on his pitches, a 111 rating on his Location+ and a 108 on his Pitching+ rating. Pitching+ is Stuff and Location combined to rate the overall quality of a pitcher’s offerings. There is no other season in his career where his stuff is rated this highly.

Hope for rapid improvement

After rushing Waldron into the rotation in order to not use the bullpen excessively, the Padres were probably not expecting a stellar performance. In his start, Waldron was also up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Jose Soriano of the Los Angeles Angels. The hitters were shut out in that game so the number of runs allowed wouldn’t have mattered in any way. At least one to two more starts need to be used to get Waldron tuned up before anyone makes any real assessment of who he will be as a starter this year. It would not be fair to make any decisions on a pitcher while he is still in his Spring Training buildup. He will also be working with Ruben Niebla and his staff to refine his stuff while building up. The Padres starters have all had at least one rocky start so far this season, it is up to the offense and the bullpen to support Waldron until he is built up to at least the beginning point of the other starters. The days where Waldron starts will be a challenge for the coaching staff to make a pitching plan that allows the team a chance to win if he is not executing well. Otherwise, bullpen games are the only option until Canning is ready or another pitcher is found. Everyone should be rooting for Waldron to improve as rapidly as possible and hope his best is good enough to hold down his spot in the rotation.