What We’re Learning About Four Key Cardinals Prospects in Memphis

Jordan is still swinging at everything and making good contact. The big jump has come in his exit velocity numbers. His max exit velocity of 113.3 MPH would rank 25th in the MLB just ahead of Jo Adell. His average exit velocity jump of 6 MPH takes him from being well below average to well above-average. Despite a high chase%, Jordan has made an above-average amount of contact thanks to an incredible 94.9% contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone.

Jordan continues to have a fascinating profile. If you had told me he was off to an amazing start, I would have assumed he had cleaned up his plate discipline or started hitting more fly balls… Instead, he has doubled down on the two things he is great at, hitting the ball hard and making a ton of contact. It doesn’t seem like a profile that will play at the major league level where he will be exploited by pitchers with better command, but it is hard to argue with the results thus far. Jordan seems like the perfect candidate to get some at-bats for the Cardinals later this summer to give him a sense of the adjustments needed to hit major league pitching and an offseason to work on improving his approach. Despite the flaws, it has been a very encouraging start to the year, and Jordan’s stock is on the rise.

Jimmy Crooks

Crooks had a solid, if unspectacular, 2025 season in Memphis. His contact rates backed up enough to create some doubt as to whether he could get to his solid power. So far, 2026 has been a mixed bag.

While Crooks is off to a great start from a results perspective having already hit 4 home runs and carrying a 156 wRC+, his contact and chase rates have both moved in the wrong direction. It is too early to worry, but you would feel a little more excited about the fast start if there were underlying changes to support the improved offense. Crooks’ elevated 33.3% strikeout rate is driven by nine strikeouts in 15 at-bats against southpaws. He has a slightly higher hard hit rate and barrel%, but despite the gaudy hitting line, Crooks has been generally the same hitter he was in 2025.

I would really like to see Crooks improve his chase rate moving forward, which should elevate his borderline unplayable contact rate. Only ten major leaguers ran contact rates in the 60s last season and none as low as 65%. There is still plenty of volatility in the data this early, so we are definitely not in the panic zone yet. The average to slightly above-average power is already there, and Crooks has a knack for making high-quality contact when he does connect. Despite his lack of speed, ZiPS projects him to run above-average BABIPs as the foundation of his offensive profile.

Leo Bernal

Unlike Jordan and Crooks, Bernal did not have prior Triple-A experience, so there is much less data in his baseline to compare to.

Bernal is having a little trouble chasing too often, but is making contact at an above-average rate. While his average and 90th percentile exit velocities are not exciting, his max exit velocity is above-average, which is a great sign, especially in such a small sample size. Despite the underwhelming .236/.295/.327 slash line, Bernal’s start from an underlying metrics perspective may be the most encouraging. Unlike Crooks, he is maintaining a solid plate approach and contact rate in his first taste of Triple-A as a 22-year-old. FanGraphs has him rated as having average raw power (50 grade), but his max exit velocity of 112 MPH hints that there could be more in the tank. Switch hitters and catchers have the reputation of taking longer to develop offensively, and Bernal is both of these. He has plenty of time to solidify himself as a core piece of the future, but you would like to see more consistent power as he settles into the Triple-A environment.

Joshua Baez

Baez was the player I was most excited to get data on coming into the year following his epic breakout in 2025. The big question we want to get answered is how his contact rates would hold as he faced more advanced pitching.

Baez is surviving, but he is showing why the Cardinals made the correct decision in letting him start the season in Triple-A despite the torrid Spring Training. His exit velocity numbers are just average so far and his contact rate has backed up significantly from the average rate he carried in 2025. After running a 59% contact rate in big league spring training, the continued low contact rate in Memphis at least warrants an eyebrow raise. We are still early enough to brush this off as an early-season adjustment period, but with Baez’s history, it is absolutely something to keep an eye on to see if he can right the ship. Triple-A pitchers have attacked Baez with over 40% breaking balls thus far (MLB average is roughly 30%) and Baez has only managed a 56% contact rate. He is doing most of his damage on fastballs with an 80% contact rate, and both of his home runs have come on heaters.

I think Baez may be pressing a bit coming off of his electric spring training. He has a reputation for good swing decisions and may just be a tad overly aggressive in the early going. I would like to see if a more disciplined approach could unlock the power he displayed in 2025.

All things considered, my opinion of these four has not changed in a meaningful way based on this small sample size. I am encouraged by Jordan and Bernal’s starts and would like to see some improved discipline from Baez and Crooks. All four could impact the Cardinals in 2026 and their performance has direct implications for the roster going forward. That matters not just for development, but for how the Cardinals approach roster decisions this season. Bernal and Crooks performing well could push one of Pedro Pages or Yohel Pozo out the door. If Baez looks ready, he could get a look in center field or make a Lars Nootbaar trade more attractive even if the Cardinals are in the playoff hunt this summer. Blaze Jordan is still getting reps at first base and third base where the Cardinals lack right-handed power. Whether they make it to St. Louis this year or not, the progress, or lack thereof, of this quartet will have a material impact on the shape of the roster moving forward.