What will be the biggest surprise in this year's 2026 NFL Draft?

Just one year ago, the 2026 NFL Draft brought a huge surprise.

Huge is no exaggeration, as QB Shedeur Sanders, projected by most, yes most, analysts to be a first-round draft selection, fell. Oh, he didn't merely fall into the early second round; he plunged, he nose dived, out of the second round, out of the third round all the way to the fifth round and the 144th overall selection by the Cleveland Browns.

In Shedeur's case, his father Deion might have not only been a reason, but the major reason for the huge fall in the draft. Deion, never cautious to think he might not actually understand a situation best, confidently said on camera, "I'm not going to let my son get down in no foolishness. It's not like who I would like for him to play for. It's a couple of teams I won't allow him to play for. This is my profession. I know what is behind the curtain." The irony is not only that Sheduer fell some 140 spots, but he ended up in Cleveland. Apparently, Deion possessed much less power than he imagined.

There have been these draft slides before, as Sanders is by no means unique in falling on draft day. When this occurs, it can sometimes be a steal for the team, as they choose the falling player. You can then often get a player very motivated to prove NFL teams erred, such as Tom Brady, or you can get a player who truly is never going to live up to their early draft projections. Bottom line? You never know who you're getting.

• Geno Smith was a very effective, mobile passing QB for West Virginia, throwing 42 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. Early projections had Smith as a top 10 pick. But word leaked out prior to the draft that Smith had not come across well in some interviews. This scared other teams off as well. Smith tumbled completely out of the first round to the New York Jets at No. 39 overall. Twelve years later, Smith is still in the league, which is a positive, while the other side of the coin is that he has played for five teams and is now back with the Jets for his sixth stop.
• After his junior season at Pitt, Dan Marino was considered the second quarterback in the 1983 draft, behind only John Elway. But when his senior season was not as good, questions rose, resulting in a rumor of drug use. Though it was never substantiated or proven at all, Marino fell, and fell all the way to No. 27 for the Miami Dolphins. In his second NFL season, he was already shattering single-season NFL passing records.
• Aaron Rodgers had grown up a San Francisco 49ers fan, played college at California, and was expected by many to be chosen first overall by the 49ers. To this day, we don't really know why the 49ers passed, and many other teams followed suit. Rodgers fell all the way to the Packers (who had Brett Favre) at No. 24 overall in the 2005 draft. That night on stage, Rodgers was interviewed and asked, "How disappointed are you that you will not be a 49er?" Rodgers, without hesitation, replied, "Not as disappointed as the 49ers will be that they didn't draft me."
• Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was far and away the best running QB in the class of 2018. So good, some NFL analysts thought he might be better in the NFL as a running back. On draft night, Jackson fell to the last pick of the first round (32) to the Baltimore Ravens. He has at times sparkled in the NFL with super-athletic plays, both passing and running. Yes, his numbers have dropped in the playoffs, but Jackson has more than proven himself to be a top NFL quarterback and is a two-time NFL MVP.

There have been others as well who fell for various reasons, such as the Commanders' OT Laremy Tunsil, WR Randy Moss, and WR DK Metcalf. Moss had been arrested and failed a drug test, which cost him a scholarship from Notre Dame and dismissal from Florida State. Tunsil was one of the most shocking of falls, when only minutes prior to the beginning of the 2016 NFL Draft, a photo of Tunsil was released showing him smoking marijuana through a gas mask. In 2007, Brady Quinn sat on stage until selected by the Browns at 22nd overall.

In last year's draft, Jacory Croskey Merritt fell all the way to the seventh round before Washington GM Adam Peters scooped him up at 245th overall. Why? Because he had only played one game in his senior season, he was declared ineligible. Had he played more of the season, JCM would have been more visible and most likely been drafted a couple of rounds earlier. While Croskey-Merritt's fall wasn't shocking, it illustrates the NFL draft's unpredictability.

So, keep in mind there are always reasons why some players fall in the draft.

This article originally appeared on Commanders Wire: 2026 NFL Draft: Which player will have a surprising fall?