What would a Keon Coleman trade even look like?

While this is a hypothetical and nothing more at this stage, let’s try to determine what Coleman could realistically get the Bills in a trade.

To do that, I’ve grabbed recent first and second-round receivers who were traded before or during their third NFL seasons and have listed what they returned to their original teams in the swap.

First-round picks

Jahan Dotson (Commanders —> Eagles, 2024): Round 3 + two Round 7 picks… Commanders also traded a Round 5 pick in the deal

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (Ravens —> Cardinals, 2022): Round 1 pick… Ravens also sent a Round 3 to Arizona

Kadarius Toney (Giants —> Chiefs, 2022): Round 3 + Round 6

Jalen Reagor (Eagles —> Vikings, 2022): Round 7 pick + conditional Round 4 pick in the next draft

Second-round picks

Jonathan Mingo (Panthers —> Cowboys, 2024): Round 4 pick

Elijah Moore (Jets —> Browns, 2023): Round 2 pick… Jets also sent a Round 3 to Cleveland

Chase Claypool (Steelers —> Bears, 2022): Round 2 pick

Skyy Moore (Chiefs —> 49ers, 2025): Round 6 pick… Chiefs also sent a Round 7 to San Francisco

Van Jefferson (Rams —> Falcons, 2023): Round 6 pick… Rams also sent a Round 7 to Atlanta

If we’re looking for the “average” net return in all of these deals, it’s essentially a Round 3 or Round 4 selection. However, that figure is pretty heavily skewed by the Round 1 pick the Ravens got by dealing Brown, a 1,000-yard receiver, to the Cardinals in 2022.

Of course, Coleman doesn’t have a 1,000-yard season on his resume, so Brown isn’t very applicable here.

Therefore, if Brown is removed from the equation, the average net return becomes a late Round 4 pick.

The Rams currently have picks in Round 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6 in the 2027 draft and are projected for a compensatory 7th. They sent their 2027 third-round pick to the Kansas City Chiefs in the blockbuster Trent McDuffie trade in March.

The Bills are slotted to have a pick in each round in the 2027 draft along with two in Round 7.

Because there have been minor flashes from Coleman — like late in his rookie season and in Week 1 against the Ravens — I would expect the Bills to be able to get more than the lowly Round 6 – Round 7 pick swap which has basically become the smallest return a player can fetch on the trade market in the modern-day NFL.

Would I expect Coleman to get the Bills much more than that? No. And if the Rams offered a 2027 Round 4 pick in exchange for Coleman and, say, a Round 5 selection, I, personally believe that’s something the Bills should consider and ultimately agree to.