Tennessee baseball's NCAA Tournament projections have slightly declined after losing two games to Kentucky, but they remain in contention for a regional berth. With seven games left, their upcoming series against No. 4 Texas is crucial for improving their postseason position.
Where Tennessee baseball landed in latest NCAA Tournament projections
Tennessee baseballās NCAA Tournament profile may have taken a slight dip after losing two games at Kentucky, but the Vols are still in position for another regional berth.
Tennesseeās season to this point has been hard to define, with series wins against probable national seeds showing its potential but questions remaining of its ability to sustain that level. With only seven games left in the regular season, Tennessee (32-17, 11-13 SEC) is putting the final touches on its postseason resume.
The Volsā best remaining chance to improve their seed will be a three-game series against No. 4 Texas (36-10, 15-8), the SECās highest-ranked team. Game 1 at Lindsey Nelson Stadium is May 8 (6:30 p.m., SEC Network+), followed by Game 2 on May 9 (6 p.m., SEC Network+) and the series finale on May 10 (noon, ESPN2).
āIt's a very balanced group and very competitive, but that's what the SEC is,ā Tennessee coach Josh Elander said of the Longhorns. āā¦ It's another really, really good opponent at home in Knoxville, and we're excited for the challenge."
Ahead of Tennesseeās penultimate SEC series, hereās where it stands in recent NCAA Tournament projections:
Tennessee baseball's NCAA Tournament profile took a slight dip after losing two games at Kentucky.
Tennessee has a record of 32-17 and is 11-13 in the SEC.
Tennessee will play their three-game series against No. 4 Texas from May 8 to May 10.
The series against Texas is Tennessee's best chance to improve their NCAA Tournament seed as they finalize their postseason resume.
Sunrisers Hyderabad defeated Punjab Kings by 41 runs in IPL 2026, moving to the top of the table. PBKS captain Shreyas Iyer highlighted dropped catches as a crucial factor in their third consecutive loss.
Gio Lopez shares his thoughts on playing under Bill Belichick at UNC
Kansas City Chiefs Make Major Roster Changes for 2026 Season
Nine Alle-Kiski Valley softball teams to learn WPIAL playoff fates Thursday.
Michigan State Basketball Lands No. 6 in CBS Sports Preseason Rankings for 2026-27
Steelers will not play in London in 2026 as Jaguars protect home game
See every story in Sports ā including breaking news and analysis.
The Vols were a consensus No. 2 seed before the Kentucky series, but most projections now consider them a No. 3 seed.
D1baseball and Baseball America both have Tennessee headed to Atlanta as the No. 3 seed in a regional hosted by No. 2 overall seed Georgia Tech. USA TODAY, meanwhile, projects the Vols to Los Angeles as the third seed in No. 1 overall seed UCLAās regional, and On3 also has the Vols headed to L.A. but instead playing at Southern Cal.
The Tennesseanās Aria Gerson still has the Vols as the second seed in the Chapel Hill regional, hosted by North Carolina.
All those projections include at least 12 SEC teams, and Baseball America added a 13th with Vanderbilt as the last team in.
Even a so-so finish to the season should be enough for the Vols to make the NCAA Tournament. They moved off the bubble a few weeks ago after spending time there earlier in the season, and with 11 SEC wins they are just three away from the magic number of 14 (no team with a 14-16 or better SEC record has missed the tournament since 2017).
Splitting their final two weekend series, or even just avoiding two sweeps and performing well at the SEC Tournament, would likely be enough to punch their ticket to a regional.
Tennesseeās RPI stands at No. 35 nationally after a May 5 win over Presbyterian, with the potential for a boost with upcoming Quadrant 1 opportunities against Texas (No. 3 in RPI) and Oklahoma (No. 20). The Vols are 10-8 in Quad 1 games and 1-5 in Quad 2.
Tennessee is tied with Kentucky for 11th in the SEC standings with six games to go. If the conference tournament began this week, the Vols would be the No. 12 seed and play Vanderbilt, the No. 13 seed, in the first round with a five-game path to the title.
āWe donāt really try to look at that too much,ā Vols first baseman Levi Clark said.
To earn a first-round bye with a top eight seed, Tennessee would have to make up two games on one of three squads tied at 13-11 in conference play (Alabama, Arkansas and Florida). Ole Miss and Oklahoma are also ahead at 12-12 in a tie for ninth.
Emmett Siegel covers Tennessee baseball for Knox News. Email: emmett.siegel@knoxnews.com; X: @EmmettSiegel_
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: How many wins Tennessee baseball needs to make the NCAA Tournament