Where Ty Simpson gets drafted, teams who could shake up NFL Draft and more

Josh Edwards: Cardinals in Round 1. "The buzz has been that Arizona is most interested in Simpson. They pick at No. 34 overall, so there is a train of thought to support the idea of trading back into the first round for the fifth-year option. Who are the teams ahead of them that have an argument to take the player? The Rams probably would not draft a quarterback of the future at No. 13 overall after making other big moves to improve the roster this season. The Jets and Browns? They may be more interested in the 2027 draft class. Pittsburgh makes sense, but the team's offseason moves suggest they are more interested in maximizing this year's potential than in worrying about the future. Arizona is the obvious team, but Atlanta was not obvious the year they took Michael Penix Jr."

2. Who is the safest prospect in this class and why?

Wilson: IOL Vega Ioane, Penn State. "Vega Ioane is the cleanest prospect in this class because there's almost no projection required -- what you see on tape is exactly what translates on Sundays. He plays with a consistently low pad level, absorbs bull rushes, resets with a well-timed punch, and is rarely off-balance or out of position. What separates Ioane from other interior offensive linemen, even those likely to go in the first round, is attention to the technical details and consistency in both pass protection and the run game.  There's no boom-or-bust projection with Ioane; just a high-floor player with plug-and-play ability for the next decade."

Renner: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame. "The athlete will translate exceptionally well to the NFL. He doesn't need a great situation to produce."

Edwards: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State. "Safest is a relative term. I think the possibility exists that Downs is not consistently viewed in the same tier as Kyle Hamilton, considering there is so much turnover among the All-Pros at the position. However, there is no scenario in my mind that Downs is an outright failure."

3. Which highly regarded prospect is most likely to be overdrafted?

Wilson: EDGE Arvell Reese, Ohio State. "Arvell Reese is the easy answer and it's not because his 2025 tape at Ohio State was anything less than insanely impressive. The issue: what's his best position at the next level? He's probably the best athlete in the class, but right now, he's a much better off-ball linebacker than edge rusher. That said, he was dominant at times coming off the edge for the Buckeyes last fall, but compared to Micah Parsons and Abdul Carter, two off-ball linebackers in college who moved to edge rusher in the NFL, Reese isn't yet in the same category. It doesn't mean he can't or won't be, it just means that, right now, there's a lot of projecting what his future looks like at the next level. And if a team considers him primarily an off-ball linebacker, is he worth, say, a top-3 pick?"

Renner: EDGE Keldric Faulk, Auburn. "My board says, Keldric Faulk. I see a nice run defender who could potentially push the pocket in time. I don't see a high-end pass-rusher ready to be developed that would warrant a 1st-round selection."

Edwards: OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia. "There is a wide range of opinions on Freeling. Those who are willing to bet on the frame, athletic potential and linear progression as a young prospect who finished the season playing his best football. However, if you evaluate the full body of work, it's not the profile of a top-20 overall pick."

4. Which player has a real chance to crash the top 10?

Wilson: IOL Vega Ioane, Penn State. "The board doesn't lend itself to a guard going inside the top 10 but I think Vega Ioane is that special. I've also heard that teams selecting high have discussed taking him because he's such a clean prospect. I know that Giants fans aren't pumped about the idea of taking another tackle with a top-5 pick, and I'd imagine a guard wouldn't go over well either. But I can tell you that New York's o-line would be a lot better with Ioane (even over, say Francis Mauigoa) and Jaxson Dart would be the biggest beneficiary. The same could be said for the Browns, too, who currently have the No. 6 pick; do you want to try to project what Monroe Freeling or Kadyn Proctor or Caleb Lomu looks like at left tackle … or just take the slam dunk in Ioane?"

Renner: OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama. "I've been saying Kadyn Proctor since I first watched his season-long tape in January. The Alabama tackle has rare tools and rare tools tend to be what people chase in the top-10."

Edwards: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State. "Tyson has not been a staple in top-10 overall projections since questions emerged about his durability, but the talent has always been that of a prospect worthy of consideration in this range. The Browns, Giants, Commanders, Saints and Chiefs all have an argument to take a receiver, plus others could trade up to do so as well."

5. Which top prospect carries the biggest red flag that teams can't ignore?

Wilson: DL Caleb Banks, Florida. "Injuries are always the great equalizer on draft weekend. Caleb Banks is dominant when he's healthy, but he's struggled to stay on the field, both at Florida last season and during the combine this spring. That said, he was a force during all three Senior Bowl practices, reminding everyone of the type of talent he has. If NFL teams don't clear him medically, he could certainly slip."

Renner: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State. "It has to be Jordyn Tyson for me. The injury history is scary enough that I dropped him considerably on my final board. The hamstring injury was so severe this fall that he never ran a pre-draft 40. The tape may still be worth the risk. That's how good it was."

Edwards: DL Caleb Banks, Florida. "There was a thought to include Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy because of the reporting on his knee, but Banks' stock has been the most validating of a potential drop. There is an easy case to be made that he should be taken in the first round and yet it is almost a foregone conclusion that is not where he will go."

6. Which team is most likely to make a move that reshapes the first round?

Wilson: Cowboys. "I love the idea of the Cowboys moving up inside the top 10 to land Caleb Downs. I think he's a culture changer in the locker room and, as his defensive coordinator Matt Patricia put it at the Ohio State pro day last month, "a defensive eraser." Here's the problem: Dallas has picks No. 12 and 20, and doesn't select again until No. 92. But packaging 12 and 92 would likely get them to pick No. 9 and maybe even No. 8. I get the sense that the Saints would be more likely to trade down from No. 8 than the Chiefs from No. 9. But if the Cowboys could grab Caleb Downs, keep their other first-round pick, and get the best edge rusher or cornerback at No. 20, those are two big reasons to believe this team would be the favorites to win the NFC East next season."

Renner: Cowboys. "Will the Cowboys risk it all for the next version of Micah Parsons? It turned out well when the Texans traded up to #3 overall with the Cardinals for Will Anderson. History could repeat itself if Arvell Reese is on the board."

Edwards: Jets. "I put arguably too much thought into this question. The Cowboys are the most likely to move up, but for the rights to select a player who would have been taken in that range anyway. The Jaguars do not have a first-round pick to make the type of move they did a year ago. After considering the 49ers, I settled on the Jets. New York can trade up from No. 16 overall without sacrificing picks into the future."

7. Which team is a sneaky candidate to target a quarterback earlier than expected?

Wilson: Jets and Rams. "I don't think it's much of a surprise that the Cardinals could take a QB either at pick No. 34, or by trading back into Round 1. And after Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, the next quarterback might not hear his name called until Day 3. Knowing that, it would be something of a surprise if the Jets, for example, targeted a QB at No. 44. Carson Beck is my QB3 and I think he's a Day 2 prospect but some teams I've spoken to think he's more likely to fall to Round 4. And if the Rams took Garrett Nussmeier (who is my QB4) at No. 61, many of us would quietly nod our heads thinking the same thing: "Sean McVay will definitely make this work" – even if Nuss is more likely to be a late Day 2/early Day 3 selection. Put another way: I don't expect a run on QBs on Day 2. That said, I could also see 10 quarterbacks drafted by Saturday evening."

Renner: Eagles. "Given Jalen Hurts' escalating cap hits and the offense's struggles in two of the past three seasons, the Eagles might look to add depth to their quarterback room. Tanner McKee has been a great backup, but he's entering a contract year himself."

Edwards: Buccaneers. "The Buccaneers could conceivably draft an heir apparent to Baker Mayfield, who is entering his final year under contract, but Todd Bowles has a lot on the line to compete this season. The problem is that general manager Jason Licht has job security and may prefer to take the quarterback."

8. Which contender should trade its first-round pick for a proven veteran?

Wilson: Panthers. "For "bringing this thing full circle" reasons only, The Titans trading for A.J. Brown would be funny … at least for a few seconds. Back on Earth, I'm intrigued by the Panthers shipping their 19th overall pick to Philly for Brown. And while I don't think the Jets would do it because it would only be a matter of time before Brown grew frustrated with his situation, I theoretically like the idea of New York giving up the 16th pick for him."

Renner: Chargers. "The Chargers are an interesting team for this because I don't see them finding the pass-rushing help they're looking for at pick 22. It's too bad Maxx Crosby is in the division because he'd be well worth giving up that pick."

Edwards: Rams. "There are not many teams I would condone making such an aggressive move. Several of the perennial contenders have deteriorating rosters and need young talent, whereas there are some young teams (Chicago and New England) who showed up to the party early and should not rush their progression; Houston and Washington are cautionary tales. The Seahawks have four picks so they can't afford to give up any more. The Rams have a roster ready to compete immediately and the aggressive nature to trade for another veteran."

9. Which prospect will be the biggest steal on Day 2?

Wilson: CB Treydan Stukes, Arizona and WR Germie Bernard, Alabama. "I'll give you two players, and I had a chance to talk to both in the weeks leading up to the draft: Arizona CB Treydan Stukes and Alabama WR Germie Bernard."

Renner: S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. "If Emmanuel McNeil-Warren falls to the second round, he could easily have a similar kind of impact as a rookie to what Nick Emmanwoori had for the Seahawks last year. An elite box safety prospect in my eyes."

Edwards: IOL Connor Lew, Auburn. "The decision boiled down to either Louisville wide receiver Chris Bell or Lew. In addition to the injury, Bell still needs some development, but all the athletic traits are there. Lew was playing like a first-round player in the right scheme prior to his injury. He is on track to be available for training camp after suffering a torn ACL during his final season."

10. Which Day 3 pick will be the most productive as a rookie?

Wilson: RB Kaelon Black, Indiana. "I fully expect the Seahawks to take a running back no later than Round 3 (they have pick No. 96), but for the sake of discussion, let's say they find their way into a fifth-round pick (currently, the only Day 3 pick they have is in the sixth round, No. 188) and take Indiana's Kaelon Black. He would be my vote for a rookie with a chance to be incredibly productive. He was a combine snub but had a great season for the Hoosiers, ran a 4.45 40 at his pro day, and is one of the hardest running backs in the draft class."

Renner: RB Kaytron Allen, Penn State. "Kaytron Allen will work his way into a rotation wherever he ends up. There's a reason Penn State stopped giving the ball to Nick Singleton this year despite his incredible physical tools. It's because Allen just gets the job done. He'll at least be a solid short-yardage and goalline back."

Edwards: WR Kaden Wetjen, Iowa. "When considering impact performers this late in the draft, it is often a running back or a special teams contributor. For instance, Chimere Dike was incredibly impactful for the Titans last season because he was productive in the return game. Wetjen has versatility as a punt and kick returner."