Which April trends are real or fake?

TL;DR

As April ends, the Philadelphia Phillies are assessing player performance trends. J.T. Realmuto shows signs of improvement, while Aaron Nola's struggles raise concerns about his future.

Key points

April marks a turning point for player evaluations.
J.T. Realmuto is showing signs of improvement.
Aaron Nola's struggles raise future concerns.
Realmuto's stats lag due to a small sample size.
Nola's performance reflects both bad luck and potential decline.

Philadelphia PhilliesJ.T. RealmutoAaron NolaChicago Cubs

Apr 14, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) enters the field with catcher JT Realmuto (10) before the game against the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images The calendar has flipped to May, which means we aren’t allowed to say “it’s still only April!” any longer. That’s fairly obvious when one actually reads the calendar, but by this point in the season, some of the things that are happening on the field may actually be how the season is going to happen for players. That troublesome two weeks at the beginning of the month? We’re now near 150 plate appearances at this point. Maybe there is something to the noise that their data is putting out. We can start to investigate a little further to be able to give a more definitive answer about questions that may have trailed some of the players on the roster. Let’s look at a few things that have popped out for the Phillies. ***J.T. Realmuto is back to being an upper echelon catcher*** When the team re-signed J.T. Realmuto over the winter, most of the discussion was about giving that much money to a player that was in decline. Almost everything about Realmuto’s season in 2025 was down – offense, defense, speed, all of it. Yet being arguably the best option on the free agent market for a position the Phillies didn’t really have much depth in, it made sense to bring him back, even if the price caused a brow or two to furrow. At this point, Realmuto is about 15 games behind his contemporaries in the statistical realm, so a lot of his counting stats are going to lag behind the players at the top of the list when sorting numbers, but there are some things to like, some things to continue to worry about.

Q&A

What are J.T. Realmuto's current stats compared to last season?

Realmuto's 2026 stats show a batting average of .250, OBP of .319, and SLG of .344, compared to .257, .315, and .384 in 2025.

How has Aaron Nola performed in April 2026?

Aaron Nola has a 6.03 ERA in April 2026, indicating continued struggles following a poor 2025 season.

What factors are affecting Aaron Nola's pitching performance?

Nola's performance is impacted by a high BABIP of .343 and an increase in barrels allowed, suggesting both bad luck and potential decline.

Is it too early to judge J.T. Realmuto's performance this season?

Yes, it's considered too early to make definitive judgments on Realmuto's performance due to his limited plate appearances and ongoing recovery from injury.

***2025***

***2026***

*AVG/OBP/SLG*

.257/.315/.384

.250/.319/.344

*wRC+*

*avg. EV*

90.0 mph

88.9 mph

*bat speed*

72.0 mph

74.0 mph

*FRV*

-5

The offense is still in the territory where one might be concerned. The bat speed at this point looks to have returned after a down season in 2025, but a drop in exit velocity might concern. The thing to remember with Realmuto though – he’s only had 72 plate appearances. His missing several games with a back injury means the sample size is still very small. The gains he’s made to being one of the better defensive catchers in the game are great, but again, small sample size.

***Verdict: Too early.*** I’m not sure that Realmuto will ever get back to the halcyon days of his being the BCIB. Age never loses when she plays the game, and he is a 35 year old catcher who regularly plays 130-135 games a season. However, the defensive numbers may be a bit stickier and could give the team some real value if he can hold up through the summer. We’re so used to seeing Realmuto play through nagging injuries, but it seems more and more that those injuries are lingering longer. Calls for his to have less playing time will likely fall on deaf ears, but as we have said each year for *forever*, saving some innings on his body would go a long way.

***Aaron Nola is cooked***

Nola’s 2025 season was marred with ineffectiveness and injury. When he was off the mound, the team needed to come up with innings to cover his absence. When he was on the mound, some wondered if that absence could somehow be extended. The numbers he produced were easily the worst of his career, yet optimists could handwave it away with a simple blame of injury. It was easy to think this, that the injuries and innings were taking their toll. This season began with his having a good showing in the World Baseball Classic, hopefully a good omen for the season to come and a cause for optimism for the coming season.

Sadly, in April, Nola showed that maybe 2025 is the new norm. Or is it?

There are lots of various pitching models out there that grade the stuff of a pitcher. How reliant you are on them to tell you a story might cloud your judgement of Nola and his path forward from here. At this point, his numbers over the 2025 season and the start to his 2026 would paint the picture of a rotation workhorse that is starting to see the innings totals begin to take their toll. Nola’s baseball card numbers showed a pitcher with a 6.03 ERA, not a whole heck of a lot of that unlucky and more questions about his future with the team. Dig a little deeper and the picture does look a little bit rosier.

He’s striking out about the same amount of hitters that he usually does. His control isn’t the control we’ve come to know from Nola, but it also isn’t in the red yet. There is a tinge of bad luck surrounding his game (.343 BABIP), and the Phillies’ defense does stink, but there have been a lot of weak contact from him (6.1%, the highest of his career) that is finding the holes in the field, suggesting maybe the baseball gods are against him. He’s getting barreled more often and that’s entirely a him thing, but there is a bit of luck involved.

It’s the stuff that is a bit more encouraging. Using Stuff+, he has a really good pitch (knucklecurve, 121 Stuff+), two decent pitches (both fastballs, sinker and four-seam, 105 each), one that is slightly below average (cutter, 90) and a pitch that is pretty rough (changeup, 66). The results don’t exactly trend with those numbers as a few of those, at least by wOBA, are getting destroyed.

The fastballs have been steadily getting worse by the season, somewhat expected considering he’s reliant on location when using them. It’s the secondaries where there have been good results when hitters hit them. The changeup and curveball have been effective and probably should see an uptick in their usage.

Another issue with Nola has been how he has fared with left handed hitters. The difference between lefties (.909 OPS) vs. righties (.688 OPS) has been stark. Left handers are crushing his fastball right now, posting a .654 wOBA against the pitch even as he uses it a third of the time when they are in the box. A key to his having a better season moving forward would be a better pitch mix when facing left handed hitters.

***Verdict: Fake (but it’s really close)*.** Expectations for Nola moving forward probably should be ratcheted down quite a bit, if they haven’t been already. The days of his being an co-Ace are long gone, as are the days of his being a #2 or even a #3. If he can still settle into a #4 role, using his stuff in a better manner as he did on Monday night, the team might be able to use that well.

***The Phillies badly need another outfielder***

Check your preseason Phillies Bingo card. Did you have Brandon Marsh as a possible All-Star candidate?

The national narrative surrounding the team is that their outfield is bad and needs an upgrade (or two). In his most recent article where he decided to try and trade Mike Trout to the Phillies, Keith Law used that line to describe the team’s current outfield state.

Which April trends are real or fake?

TL;DR

Key points

Q&A

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