TL;DR The New York Yankees are currently the favorites in the AL East, with the Tampa Bay Rays trailing closely. Other rivals like the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Red Sox have struggled, raising questions about their potential to challenge the Yankees.
BOSTON, MA - APRIL 23: Willson Contreras #40 of the Boston Red Sox reaches down to tag out José Caballero #72 of the New York Yankees after getting a high throw to first during the third inning at Fenway Park on April 23, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images) | Getty Images Willson Contreras #40 of the Boston Red Sox reaches down to tag out José Caballero #72 of the New York Yankees after getting a high throw to first during the third inning at Fenway Park on April 23, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
By any account, the Yankeesâ superlative play as of late has made them the favorites in an AL East division that looked hyper-competitive coming into the year. The Rays are close in New York âs rearview mirror, but the heavy hitters that everyone expected to compete with the Yankees in the division this year, the Orioles , Blue Jays , and Red Sox, have all gotten off to starts that range from âsluggishâ to âborderline apocalypticâ. To wit, FanGraphsâ projections put the Yankeesâ median win forecast for the season a full ten wins higher than that of any of their division rivals.
But weâve seen this movie before. The Yankees have gotten out to pretty great starts in most of their recent seasons, but they havenât always been able to seal the deal in the division. So, even with the Yankees looking strong, which of their division rivals do you think has the best chance to re-emerge in the coming weeks?
Tampa Bay has pole position, or at least, they do among the chase pack in the division. The Rays are just two games back, staying close to the Yankees even as New York went on their eight-game win streak. I wouldnât say the Rays have the strongest roster in this division, not by a longshot, but theyâve won games thus far and perennially find ways to wring the most out of their 26 players.
And then, there are the Sox, Jays, and Oâs, all of whom have starrier rosters than Tampa but havenât been able to get out of their own way in 2026. Per FanGraphsâ
