Who will draft Ty Simpson? How odds dictate betting strategy for polarizing Alabama quarterback

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Depending on who you talk to, Alabama's Ty Simpson is the best quarterback prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft class, an overhyped backup QB who shouldn't be selected before Saturday, or somewhere in between. Current speculation has some team trading into the late portion of Round 1 to select Simpson -- unless the Steelers take him at No. 21. DraftKings odds have Simpson at -250 to be selected No. 25 or later and -130 to be a Round 1 pick, which should give you a projected window from the NFL betting market on where he could go on draft night, which he will attend in person.

DraftKings also has a futures betting market allowing bettors to predict which team drafts Simpson, and here's where I believe things get interesting. The Cardinals are favored at +115, with the Jets just behind at +175. On the surface, this makes a lot of sense, as those are clearly the teams with the biggest need at quarterback. The Rams, who could be in the market for Matthew Stafford's heir apparent, are next at +400, followed by the Browns at +750 and Steelers at +850.

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Which team will Ty Simpson be drafted by? Full DraftKings odds

Ty Simpson draft betting strategy

The market is being too precise with Simpson's draft window in projecting him to go No. 25-32. If he does fall like many other supposed fringe first-round quarterbacks have fallen in past years, there's a betting opportunity at a big payout trying to hit a lottery ticket play on a non-obvious team selecting Simpson.

Hendon Hooker had some first-round speculation before landing in Round 3. Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder also had some first-round buzz before landing in Round 3. Jacob Eason supposedly had potential to be a first-rounder, then landed in Round 4. The list goes on and on.

Hooker and Eason are two interesting data points as they joined teams with clearly established starters, leaving some potential to hit a longshot bet. That opens up possibilities much further down the board for Simpson in a market that is relying too heavily on him matching up with one of the most QB-needy teams.

Take the Bears, who have the longest odds on the board at +15000 along with the Chiefs. Chicago could certainly stand to upgrade at QB2 behind Caleb Williams, and the team has picks 57, 60 and 89 on Day 2. I don't see selecting Simpson as entirely out of the question, which those odds imply. You can make that case for many teams.

If I'm betting into the Simpson market, the only teams I'm ruling out are those with the shortest odds, as I see the range of possibilities for him being too wide to play anyone under +1000.

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Pick to draft Ty Simpson: Dolphins

I see +1500 at DraftKings as a solid value for Simpson, though I was able to lock Miami in at +2500. The Dolphins have a few things going for them where I'd make them much closer to the favorites.

The first is the sheer number of picks they have in the draft. If Simpson is destined for that No. 25-32 range, the Dolphins have a pick squarely in that range at No. 30.

The new Dolphins GM, Jon-Eric Sullivan, was with the Packers in 2020 when they had the No. 30 pick, which they traded to the Dolphins to get to No. 26 and take another quarterback who garnered polarizing opinions in the pre-draft process in Jordan Love -- and that was with Aaron Rodgers sitting atop the depth chart after an MVP season. That decision worked out, and the Dolphins have plenty of ammunition in this draft (11 total picks) to make a similar move and have Simpson develop behind Malik Willis.

I don't think that's the most likely scenario, but the Dolphins are also well-positioned to take advantage of a Simpson slide by virtue of four third-round picks (75, 87, 90, 94). They have a depth chart full of needs, but if their preferred players at other positions for that range aren't available, taking a QB2 with potential makes a lot of sense. They are also one of a few teams who have had Simpson in for a top-30 visit.

There are multiple paths to hitting on the Dolphins as Simpson's landing spot depending on whether he fits the mold of an actual late first-round pick or a mirage who falls in the draft. Their GM comes from an organization who defied expectations by drafting a QB early with one of the best starters in the league in place, and the Dolphins have brought Simpson in for a top-30 visit. I'd bet them down to +1000 as a value play, while I'd also consider any team at +5000 or longer in a slide scenario.