Who will win 2026 Masters? Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young on top as Scottie Scheffler leads chase pack

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AUGUSTA, Ga. -- The 2026 Masters appeared to be headed for a straightforward conclusion after 36 holes. Rory McIlroy held a six-shot lead after an unbelievable run to close out his second round, doubling up the field at 12 under. He was in full flow, visibly freed up from the weight of expectation that long slowed him down at Augusta National.

But as quickly as he took that massive lead, he squandered it on Saturday, as it took just 12 holes in the third round for him to disappear from the top spot on the leaderboard. McIlroy's struggles in the third round were shocking, not because he has never struggled before, but because he finally seemed to have moved on from the ghosts of Masters past.

He steadied the ship with birdies on the 14th and 15th holes to reclaim the solo lead but gave one more away on the 17th after his latest errant tee shot. After posting a 1-over 73 on a day when low scores were available, he opened the door for several contenders at Augusta National.

Chief among them is Cameron Young, who now owns a share of the 54-hole lead after a career-best 65 in the third round. Young blended tremendous ball-striking, quality putting and a little luck to make his charge up the leaderboard, and now, he's contending for his first major championship from a position of power.

Young has long been considered a potential star, but for years, he has struggled to cross the finish line. After winning twice in the past nine months, including at this year's Players Championship, he's proven he has the game and the mental fortitude to win.

That will be put to the test on Sunday when he faces final pairing pressure at the Masters for the first time, but as McIlroy noted after his round, those two played together in the first two rounds, which should make it a comfortable pairing for both of them.

Despite falling back, McIlroy is a 3/2 favorite to successfully defend his green jacket, per FanDuel. Young is 5/2 with the co-leaders clearly ahead of the contenders looking up at them.

Who can catch the leaders at Augusta National?

Sam Burns (-10): We haven't seen Burns play at this level in quite some time, and he's never finished better than T29 at the Masters. Sometimes, though, everything just clicks for a player at Augusta National. Given his strength on and around the greens, if he's finally unlocked the ability to get reads right and judge speed properly, he could be a threat. The biggest question for Burns is whether the ball-striking can hold up, but so far, he's been terrific tee-to-green this week. Odds: 6-1

Shane Lowry (-9): A former major champion, Lowry authored the shot of the week with a hole-in-one on the 6th, making him the first player to make two aces in his Masters career. Perhaps most importantly, that helped push him into the top five, and he continued to swing the club beautifully to get in with a 68 and put himself in contention. Lowry's history of holding leads on the PGA Tour isn't great, but as a chaser, he can be dangerous because of his ball-striking and short-game ability. The concept of McIlroy and Lowry, best friends on the PGA Tour, chasing one another to the finish is enticing. Odds: 13-1

Justin Rose (-8): Rose simply knows how to get around Augusta National. That's a phrase usually reserved for past champions, but he deserves the recognition despite never slipping on the green jacket. Perhaps this Sunday could be the day that he sheds the runner-up label he's achieved three times. Last year, he shot a final-round 65 to get into the playoff against McIlroy, and he might have to replicate that performance to have a shot at finally capturing that Masters win. Odds: 22-1

Jason Day (-8): Another of the wily veterans hanging around the first page of the leaderboard, Day did not do anything particularly spectacular on Saturday but was still able to post a 68 to get into the top five entering Sunday. A year ago, Day earned a top 10, which is why he is in the field this week. Now, he's got a chance to improve upon that finish and, if he finds a little extra gear on Sunday, perhaps he can capture his second major and first green jacket.

Scottie Scheffler (-7): Ranked fourth on the odds board despite sitting T7 on the leaderboard, Scheffler was not on anyone's mind entering the weekend despite the world No. 1's immense pedigree and skill. He got off to a flying start in Round 1 at 3 under through as many holes before failing to make a birdie the rest of his round. A Friday 74 seemed to further confirm that he would be a non-factor, but Scheffler put on one of the greatest ball-striking displays you'll ever see at Augusta National in the third round to post a 65 and get right back into the mix. Scheffler could've easily posted the lowest round in Masters history on Saturday with how well he hit the ball. If he can maintain that quality of ball-striking, which has strangely eluded him much of this year, a four-shot deficit is certainly not too much for him to overcome. Odds: 10-1

2026 Masters picks: Who will win?

Cameron Young: The New Yorker is finally blending a smart, patient approach with the raw talent that made him an immediate, budding star. He appears ready to finally hoist his first major championship as long as he brings the same mindset into Sunday as he utilized on Moving Day. -- Robby Kalland

Justin Rose: The magic of Augusta National works in mysterious ways, and if the golf Gods are, in fact, merciful, Rose will be a Masters champion by Sunday evening. It was a methodical, professional third-round 69, exorcising demons of a year ago where a Saturday 75 was the main flaw in his third runner-up finish at Augusta National. -- Patrick McDonald

Rory McIlroy: As selected in 2025 and again at the start of the week, McIlroy has done nothing to dissuade my belief. He played as poorly as he possibly could yet remains in pole position. Jack Nicklaus, who has been in McIlroy's ear since 2025, warning him about the dangers of double bogeys, blew a five-shot lead during the third round in 1975, scoring a 1-over 73 before winning his fifth green jacket by a stroke. McIlroy blew a six-shot lead on Saturday with a 1-over 73 of his own. -- Adam Silverstein