Who will win the FA Cup? Assessing the odds for Wembley and the last four

Chelsea strolled past Port Vale 7-0 at Stamford Bridge, whilst Leeds United edged past West Ham via penalties in what felt like one of the longest games of football in recent history.

It was a cup weekend that proved hard to call. With the final four confirmed, here’s how each team’s odds stack up to lift the trophy on 16th May.

Manchester City – 1/2

Finalists in the last three FA Cup finals, trips to Wembley are almost getting boring for Manchester City.

Having won the League Cup comfortably before the March international break, Pep Guardiola’s side will be back in the capital to take on Southampton with hopes of putting their loss to Palace 12 months ago right.

City reached a record-extending eighth straight FA Cup semi-final by thrashing Liverpool in a game defined by Haaland’s brilliance and the supporting cast of Ryan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo.

If this is to be one of Guardiola’s last seasons in England, he’ll want to wrap it up in style. While the Premier League title might be out of reach, his side are clear favourites for the Cup.

Chelsea – 5/2

Chelsea made light work of League One strugglers Port Vale in the last round. The game was almost over before it started, with the Blues taking the lead after 64 seconds en route to a 7-0 thrashing that never looked in doubt from the opening exchanges.

Liam Rosenior has taken the competition seriously, fielding full-strength sides at every stage after beating Charlton, Hull and Wrexham earlier in the competition. But it will be Calum McFarlane taking charge instead after the Blues opted to sack Rosenior after just three months in charge.

They finally face Premier League opposition in Leeds as they look to lift the trophy for the first time since Antonio Conte’s side beat Manchester United in 2018. That drought feels longer than it should for a club of Chelsea’s stature and resources.

Leeds will provide a sterner test than anything they’ve faced so far in the competition, but Chelsea’s squad depth and Wembley experience could prove decisive in a tight semi-final.

Leeds United – 9/1

Whilst Premier League survival might be the number one priority for Leeds United, if you offered them the FA Cup, many fans at Elland Road wouldn’t care less about their league position.

The chance to end decades of hurt and lift a major trophy would eclipse the potential pain of relegation for supporters who’ve watched this club yo-yo between divisions, not lifting the trophy since 1972.

Daniel Farke’s side almost threw the quarter-finals away at West Ham, squandering a 2-0 lead before winning on penalties at the London Stadium.

That pattern of fragility has defined their season, but they’ve also shown they can frustrate the big boys when the occasion demands it. The Yorkshire outfit have taken points from Liverpool and Manchester United whilst remaining unbeaten against Chelsea in two games already this season.

Fans will be encouraged by finally ending their goal drought in recent weeks, with hopes that Dominic Calvert-Lewin can recreate the form he showed earlier in the campaign.

At odds of 9/1, they represent genuine value as an outside shout for punters willing to gamble on cup magic. Their ability to raise their game against top opposition gives them a fighting chance at Wembley.

Southampton – 20/1

Everyone loves an underdog, and the magic of the FA Cup was in full force as the Saints marched in and knocked out Arsenal on the South Coast.

Tonda Eckert’s side could easily have folded when Viktor Gyökeres equalised for the Gunners, but the home crowd rallied to ensure a late winner provided some light in what has been a poor 12 months for the club.

Fifty years on from their last FA Cup victory, Southampton must stop City from reaching the final for a fourth successive season if they wish to repeat their 1976 success. That said, no second-division side has won the cup for over 45 years.

The task is monumental. City’s quality, experience and sheer firepower make them overwhelming favourites, but Southampton have already proven they can handle pressure moments in this competition.

It might not be their only visit to Wembley either, with the Championship play-off places hanging perilously in the balance. That dual objective could prove a distraction, or it could provide momentum that carries them through both competitions.

What Southampton possess is belief forged through their Arsenal victory. They’ve already knocked out the competition’s most successful club. Why not the team that’s dominated English football for the past decade?

The FA Cup has always been about moments that defy logic and expectations. Wimbledon’s Crazy Gang beating Liverpool’s Culture Club in 1988 remains the competition’s most iconic upset. Crystal Palace’s victory over Manchester City last season showed that on a given day at Wembley, anything becomes possible when belief meets opportunity.

This year’s semi-finals offer their own narrative potential. Two matches at Wembley will determine who lifts the trophy on 16th May.

City might be favourites, but the FA Cup has a wonderful habit of writing its own stories that bookmakers and predictions can never fully account for. That’s why we watch. That’s why it matters. And that’s why, come the end of the month, anything could happen beneath the famous arch.