Who will win the Kentucky Derby? With no dominant favorite, odds are sure to shift

The top five choices on the official morning line all trained in Florida, though some, including Further Ado, made their final starts elsewhere. But wherever the horses are coming from, including two from Japan and one from the United Arab Emirates, choosing a winner will be a challenge. At this point, it’s not even certain who will wind up favored. That’s among the story lines worth watching in the days leading up to Saturday’s race.

Who will be favored? And does it matter?

Kentucky Derby entrant Commandment works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday in Louisville, Ky. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

No one knows, and no.

The morning line favorite at 4-1 is Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher, who has started more horses (65) in the Derby than anyone and has two victories, with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. Renegade was impressive in winning his last two starts, the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay and the Arkansas Derby.

But while deserving of top billing, Renegade is hardly a standout, especially after he drew the No. 1 post position, considered a disadvantage. Either of the 6-1 co-second choices, Commandment or Further Ado, could wind up being favored at post time.

As for whether it matters, history offers conflicting results. From 1980 to 1999, no favorite won the Derby. From 2000 to 2018, there were 10 winners, including six straight from 2013 to 2018. But no favorite has won in the last seven years.

Is this the year a California horse wins?

Kentucky Derby entrant So Happy works out at Churchill Downs on Monday in Louisville, Ky. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

It would be a surprise. When Journalism and Baeza finished second and third, respectively, last year, it stretched California’s drought to five years, which doesn’t sound like much except in comparison to the previous nine years, when six horses from the state captured the Derby.

Bob Baffert trained three of those winners — American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018), who both went on to capture the Triple Crown, as well as Authentic (2020). Doug O’Neill had I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016) and Art Sherman won with California Chrome (2014).

There are five chances this year, though all five are at least 15-1 on the morning line. The leading contender is Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy, who is trainer Mark Glatt’s first Kentucky Derby starter. He will be a sentimental choice for many after Glatt’s wife of 25 years, Dena, died in February.

Baffert has Potente, who beat So Happy in the San Felipe before finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby, and Litmus Test, who has been a non-factor in two starts since winning last fall’s Los Alamitos Futurity. O’Neill will start Pavlovian, who was a close second in the Louisiana Derby, and Jeff Mullins is back with his first Derby starter in 21 years, the long shot Intrepido, a disappointing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.

Which horse is getting the most buzz?

Kentucky Derby entrant Chief Wallabee works out at Churchill Downs Tuesday in Louisville, Ky. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

Chief Wallabee didn’t race as a 2-year-old, one of four such horses in the Derby along with The Puma, Emerging Market and Potente. It used to be those horses were automatic throwouts in the Derby, but Justify ended a drought of more than 135 years when he won, and Mage followed with a victory in 2023.

All four horses who didn’t debut until they were 3 have a legitimate chance Saturday, but the one getting the most buzz in Louisville has been the one who hasn’t won a stakes race. In just his second start, the Fountain of Youth, Chief Wallabee lost by a neck to Commandment, and a month later, in the Florida Derby, the margin was a half-length to the same horse (with The Puma in between them).

The thinking, though, is Chief Wallabee gained experience in those races and has room for improvement. Plus, he is trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, who combined to win last year with Sovereignty. (Baffert was the last trainer to win the Derby back-to-back, in 1997-98; Victor Espinoza was the last jockey, in 2014-15.)

Hoping to improve Chief Wallabee’s focus, Mott will have the colt race in blinkers for the first time in the Derby. The son of Constitution has trained well while wearing them. He might be overbet because of the buzz, but there’s no doubt he’s dangerous.

Further Ado also has impressed observers in Louisville, as has Emerging Market, who will be trying to win the Derby in just his third career start, something no horse has done since Leonatus in 1883 (though it should be noted few have tried).

Will this be the last Derby run two weeks before the Preakness?

A horse heads to the track for a workout at Churchill Downs on Tuesday in Louisville, Ky. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

It can’t be ruled out. With three of the last seven Derby winners skipping the second leg of the Triple Crown, equaling the number for the previous 60 years, speculation has increased that the Preakness (and Belmont) could be moved back at least a week. Modern horses rarely run races just two weeks apart.

“I’m all for moving it,” Cox said. “I get history and I’m a big fan of history, but … I think the health and the welfare of the horse comes first over tradition.”

Brown believes a change is coming at some point, and his thinking has evolved on whether that’s a good thing.

“The more I think about it and the more I evaluate my own crops of horses year to year, it's pretty obvious that the horses benefit from more time in between races,” he said. “… I guess we have to take a step back and look at what's best.”

A switch would not be popular among traditionalists, but as Brown said, “Most change is uncomfortable for whatever we do within our industry or life or what have you. Do we want to deal with some temporary discomfort of change, but it's better for the health of the horse and for the industry and such? I'm definitely more open-minded to it now.”

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.