Why Ai Ogura’s Yamaha move is Honda’s cruellest lesson

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While negotiations between the Motorcycle Sports Manufacturers Association (MSMA) and MotoGP’s commercial rights holder continue to stall – delaying the cascade of rider market announcements already lined up for 2027 – Ogura’s move to Yamaha, first reported by Motorsport.com a few days ago, can now be considered a done deal.

The deal is surprising from every angle. The entire paddock had assumed that the rider from Kiyose would remain in Trackhouse colours, the team that backed him before he became Moto2 world champion in 2024. However, Yamaha played its hand superbly to secure one of the most intriguing riders on the grid, making him the first full factory-backed Japanese rider for the Iwata manufacturer.

Just over a month ago, Ogura’s future seemed all but sealed with Justin Marks’ team. Both parties had agreed to extend their relationship, with Aprilia – represented by Massimo Rivola – also on board. But Yamaha’s speed and determination during the United States Grand Prix to sign him triggered a sudden shift, leaving Trackhouse powerless to retain him.

In his second season in the premier class, Ogura has shown more than enough talent to be regarded as a safe bet for the coming years. That worked in his favour, as did the wider market context.

After signing Jorge Martin, who will be his new neighbour in Yamaha’s factory garage, the manufacturer also spoke to other candidates for the second seat, including David Alonso, Dani Holgado and Luca Marini. The first two opted for Honda and Gresini Ducati respectively. The age gap between Marini (29) and Ogura (25) ruled out the Italian, who must now look for one of the few remaining vacancies.

At the same time, Ogura’s signing completes a stinging slap for Honda, which nurtured the #79, developed him through its feeder programmes, and promoted him through Moto3 and Moto2 – only to now see Yamaha reap the rewards of that investment. The situation becomes even more painful considering that Ogura previously turned down a Honda offer to step up to MotoGP with LCR, choosing instead to remain in Moto2. The lack of a competitive Asian rider – failed to meet expectations – eventually led Honda to shut down the Idemitsu pathway, another failed project.