Why Arsenal are still the favourites to win the Premier League

2) Arsenal have a strong record in big games

Arsenal need to view the game at the Etihad as an opportunity rather than a threat. A win would all but seal the title.

Arsenal’s recent league meetings against City have been encouraging. They are unbeaten in their last five against them in the Premier League (won two, drawn three), having lost 12 in a row before that run. While their League Cup final defeat was alarming, it wasn’t as if they were completely blown away. City played well, but Arsenal were a long way off their best.

What’s more, Arsenal’s broader record in high-profile fixtures under Arteta is impressive. Across the last three and a half seasons, if you look at fixtures between sides currently in the top six, Arsenal have lost fewer matches than any of their rivals (eight of 39) and accumulated more points than anyone else. If there is a pattern, it’s that Arsenal have tended to stumble in fixtures they are expected to win, rather than against direct rivals.

3) The run-in favours Arsenal

A home game against Bournemouth looked favourable on paper, so predicting future fixtures should always be treated with caution. That’s what happens in sport. And, as we’ve just said, Arsenal have had a tendency to drop silly points in the past.

That said, the run-in still favours Arsenal. Using the Opta Power Rankings to assess opponent strength, their remaining fixtures carry an average opponent rating of 90.4, compared to 92.0 for City.

Relative to the rest of the league, Arsenal have the fourth-easiest run-in. Avoiding defeat at the Etihad could be enough to keep control, particularly with three of their remaining matches at home.

4) Their underlying numbers are strong

A lot has been made of Arsenal’s lack of creativity from open play, and those criticisms are valid. Against Bournemouth, they generated just 0.19 expected goals from open play, their lowest total in a home league match since recording 0.17 against Crystal Palace in October 2025.

However, their overall expected goals total against Bournemouth was 2.32, with 2.13 of that coming from set-pieces. Their penalty (0.79) inflates that figure to some extent, but the ability to consistently create high-quality chances from dead-ball situations remains a real strength. The balance between their chance creation in open play and set-plays is stark and far from ideal, but chances from set-pieces do still count.

More broadly, Arsenal’s underlying numbers remain really strong. They still have the best defence in the country. Stripping the numbers down to 2026 alone, they are the only Premier League side conceding less than one expected goal per game (0.76). Even during this recent dip, they have not been conceding many high-quality chances. That Bournemouth’s 1.19 xG was the sixth-most Arsenal have conceded in a game all season speaks to that.

At the other end, they continue to generate enough opportunities to win matches more often than not. They have “won” the expected goals battle in 11 of their 13 league games this year. Those numbers should carry them over the line.

5) The Opta supercomputer still backs them

Fair enough, “because our model says so” is not the most reassuring response to Arsenal fans. But looking at the Opta supercomputer can provide some useful, rational context. According to the model’s 10,000 simulations, Arsenal still win the title in 87% of them. They also remain favourites with the bookmakers.

Strip away the emotion of last weekend and there is still a far greater chance than not that Arsenal will get over the line. Momentum is with Manchester City and everyone is waiting and expecting the inevitable Arsenal collapse. Arteta’s side need to respond quickly. But the fundamentals of their title challenge remain strong.

This is an article by Opta Analyst