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Why Renegade's Kentucky Derby post position won't take him out of race
TL;DR
Renegade's post position for the Kentucky Derby won't hinder his chances, as the race favors closers over speedsters and stalkers. The dynamics of the race suggest a strong performance is still possible.
Key points
- Renegade's post position won't hinder his chances.
- Kentucky Derby 152 favors closers over speedsters.
- The race is set for Saturday.
- Current dynamics suggest strong performances from closers.
Why Renegade's Kentucky Derby post position won't take him out of race
The way Kentucky Derby 152 is shaping up, Saturdayâs Run for the Roses will belong to the closers.
Not the speedsters.
Not the stalkers.
The deep closers.
âOh, most definitely,â said trainer Cherie DeVaux, whose colt Golden Tempo fits into that category. âThis is a fair race.â
By that, she means the presence of every kind of running style in the 20-horse field will keep it honest. In smaller fields, races may have too few closers to too many stalkers and it throws off the pace. Or too much speed that sometimes means the winner is based more on stamina outlasting the rest of the pack.
The Derby will blend it all together, letting the speed jump out early and the stalkers stay within striking distance. Then when the time is right, one of the deep closers will emerge to cross the finish line first.
Keep an eye on the pace through the first half-mile fraction.
âIf you see a 46 (seconds) or 45 and change, that's going to set up for closer,â said trainer Riley Mott, who watched Albus rally from eighth to win the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.
Renegade, who was the morning line favorite at 4-to-1 odds, possibly got the worst draw for a contender in post 1. That alone may have cooled bettors on his outlook since no horse has won from that position since Ferdinand in 1986.
But Renegade is a closer. And some of these longstanding prerequisites of horse racing are being broken in this new generation.
The âCurse of Apolloâ is no longer a phrase that applies to Derby horses. Justify won the 2018 Kentucky Derby en route to claiming the Triple Crown despite not racing as a 2-year-old. When Mage won Derby 149 in 2023, also having not competed at 2, that smashed the entire premise.
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado walks by a sign honoring Sovereignty -- which he rode to a win in the 2025 Kentucky Derby -- at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabe outside trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026.
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Chief Wallabee is walked back his stall at trainer Bill Mott's barn on the backside of Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 19, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Incredibolt in his stall at Trainer Riley Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Pin Oak Stud won the Virginia Derby. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bill Mott at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Mott has Chief Wallabee in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott in the stall of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott carries the saddlecloth of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working in his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott on the backside during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott watches training on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee for trainer Bill Mott. Alvarado won the 2025 Kentucky Derby aboard Sovereignty. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
1 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
2 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
3 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
4 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado walks by a sign honoring Sovereignty -- which he rode to a win in the 2025 Kentucky Derby -- at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
5 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabe outside trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026.
6 / 26
See full field of horses racing in the 2026 Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
7 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
8 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
9 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Chief Wallabee is walked back his stall at trainer Bill Mott's barn on the backside of Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 19, 2026
10 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
11 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Incredibolt in his stall at Trainer Riley Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Pin Oak Stud won the Virginia Derby. April 20, 2026
12 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
13 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
14 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bill Mott at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Mott has Chief Wallabee in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. April 20, 2026
15 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Trainer Riley Mott in the stall of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
16 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Trainer Riley Mott carries the saddlecloth of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working in his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
17 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
18 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Trainer Riley Mott on the backside during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
19 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Trainer Riley Mott watches training on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
20 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
21 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee for trainer Bill Mott. Alvarado won the 2025 Kentucky Derby aboard Sovereignty. April 20, 2026
22 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
23 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
24 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
25 / 26
See full field of horses racing in the 2026 Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
26 / 26
A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
So donât tell me Renegadeâs post will take him out of the race. His style will ensure otherwise, even if that means he needs a little luck on his trip for a clear path.
At the opposite end of the gate from post 20, Fulleffort will attempt to be in position down the stretch to use his closing speed.
Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who chose to ride Renegade for the Kentucky Derby, also rode Fulleffort from ninth half a mile into the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks into a first-place finish.
Fullefffort wonât be boxed in by the rail, but will have to show enough speed early on to get to a place where itâs not too wide on turn 1.
When a horse is clearly the best of the field, like Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was for trainer Bob Baffert in 2015, it can run the Kentucky Derby in the lead.
American Pharoah ran third through the first mile before overtaking Firing Line and Dortmund to claim first place down the stretch.
There are no American Pharoahs in this field, which is why the more likely scenario sets up for a closer to win.
âThere'll be a couple horses in there that are sort of fly-in-the-ointment type horses,â Baffert said. âThey just go out there way too fast and it stretches out the field.â
That will bode well for a horse like Commandment, who ran sixth in a six-horse field in the Florida Derby through the first half-mile, only to rally and claim his fourth straight win. It might be the case for The Puma, who closed from eighth in a nine-horse Tampa Bay Derby through half a mile for his Grade 3 stakes win. He also ran second to Commandment, losing by a nose in the Florida Derby, after running fifth through a half-mile.
So don't be enamored with potential frontrunners in the Kentucky Derby. This race on Saturday will favor those who close.
Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown atclbrown1@gannett.com, follow him on X at@CLBrownHoopsand subscribe to his newsletter atprofile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latestto make sure you never miss one of his columns.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Renegade, Kentucky Derby 2026 horses who are closers are ones to watch
Q&A
How does Renegade's post position affect his chances in the Kentucky Derby?
Renegade's post position is not expected to negatively impact his performance, as the race dynamics favor closers.
What type of horses are favored in the Kentucky Derby 152?
The Kentucky Derby 152 is shaping up to favor closers rather than speedsters or stalkers.
When is the Kentucky Derby 152 taking place?
The Kentucky Derby 152 is scheduled for Saturday.
What are the key strategies for horses in the Kentucky Derby?
Horses that can close strong are likely to perform better in the Kentucky Derby, based on the current race conditions.
