Why The 2026 World Cup Will Be About Much More Than A Commercial Bonanza

There is an old adage that a week in soccer is a long time; it’s now four months since Donald Trump was awarded FIFA’s first ever Peace Prize, since when preparations for the tournament have been upended by serial trauma.

Immigration and security a concern

When ICE agents shot Renée Nicole Good on Jan. 7 this year, concerns intensified about similar interventions occurring during this summer’s tournament.

That said, these concerns were already there there following U.S. staging of last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup when some fans reportedly stayed away from games fearing apprehension by ICE.

From a migration perspective, questions also remain about how easily fans, officials and others will be able to move from Mexico and Canada into and out of the U.S.

Officials in Washington will now be especially vigilant to this following February’s deadly wave of drug violence across Mexico following the security services’ shooting of several cartel members.

Such violence is inevitably a risk factor for any sports mega event host, though discussions about it rapidly dissipated when in March, the U.S. and Israel began their military campaign against Iran.

Accordingly, the biggest issue is whether or not Iran will compete in the World Cup, its games currently scheduled to take place in the U.S., although relatedly the spectre of Iranian terrorist sleeper cell attacks during the tournament will privately now be occupying the minds of officials both at FIFA and inside U.S. government.

When factoring in U.S. support for Israel in Palestine and Lebanon allied to the American president’s challenging pronouncements on issues ranging from NATO and Greenland to trade tariffs and migration, global sentiment towards the U.S. has plummeted.

Ticket sales and sponsorship worries

All of which is having unintended consequences for the business of this summer’s World Cup; for instance, up to 40% of tickets remain unsold (not helped by FIFA’s pricing strategy), while tournament related hotel bookings are currently falling way short of expectations in the U.S.

For instance, room rates for game days in several host cities - including Dallas, Miami, and Philadelphia - have fallen by about a third from their peak earlier this year

At the same time, FIFA’s raft of global sponsors will have been carefully watching matters unfold as they plan out how they will be activating their deals and managing relations with U.S. government at this summer’s tournament.

Among FIFA’s roster of commercial partners are the likes of Korean car manufacturer Kia-Hyundai, a U.S. competitor that Trump has once called an American ‘job killer’ resulting in significant trade tariffs being imposed upon the country.

Kia-Hyundai’s logos will soon be ubiquitous across the U.S., as will those of Hisense (another FIFA partner) which is owned by the Qingdao province state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the entity that ensures state-owned companies align with national economic and political goals set by the Chinese Communist Party.

It remains to be seen if, whether or how the Trump administration might react to them (and others) when the FIFA circus finally arrives in town.

To this potentially toxic mix can be added the possibility of fan, perhaps even player and team activism.

In France, there have been discussions and calls from political figures and fan groups calling for a boycott of the tournament, while some local government officials in the country are even refusing to host World Cup fan zones in their towns and cities.

Meanwhile, in England and the Netherlands, grassroots campaigns and human rights groups urged fans and sponsors to shun the World Cup due to concerns over civil liberties and the treatment of visitors under current U.S. travel and immigration policies.

At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, German players covered their mouths during a pre-match protest when FIFA stopped them wearing rainbow armbands during the game, whilst during a recent international handball game, Spanish women’s team players appeared on court wearing pro-Palestinian symbols and messages on their shoes.

Amid this dense network of political, geopolitical, financial and commercial interests, some football will presumably be played, though it will do so in what has become the most complex and sensitive environment in World Cup history.

Although FIFA remains bullish about the 2026 edition of its showcase tournament and cash cow (revenues are expected to exceed $8 billion), whilst expecting some compelling football on the field we must nevertheless anticipate some even bigger dramas off it.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com