Why there's more than provincial finals on the line this week

If qualifying for a provincial final isn't reward enough, there is a lot more on the line in this weekend's Ulster and Leinster football semi-finals.

Both Down and Westmeath will enter with high hopes of building on their shock victories over Donegal and Meath respectively, but defeat for either could bring much greater ramifications.

During Monday's Tailteann Cup draw, 'Team 16' was plucked from the hat and given home advantage against Leitrim in the opening round, set for the weekend of 16/17 May.

But who will be said team? By Sunday evening, it will be either Down, Westmeath or perhaps even Cavan, so this is how that particular permutation will work out.

The permutations

It's quite simple for both Down and Westmeath: win their provincial semi-final and it will be Sam Maguire football this summer, but lose and it gets a little complicated.

Should both suffer defeat this weekend, then Westmeath will drop into the Tailteann Cup as Down, by way of their Division Three league success, will have the higher ranking.

Should one win and the other lose, then the winner plays in the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship and the loser drops into the second-tier competition.

However, if both are to come through as winners, Cavan will drop into the Tailteann Cup, despite surviving relegation from Division Two this year.

That is because Kildare, who finished below the Breffnimen in the league, are guaranteed their place in the race for Sam Maguire due to their Tailteann Cup success last year.

So what are the chances for each?

Down will ride into Clones to face neighbours Armagh with an added spring in their step.

While Conor Laverty's men have certainly made strides in recent years, few expected them to take down National League winners Donegal away from home in their Ulster opener, but they did just that with a magnificent display as Odhran Murdock, Daniel Guinness and the returning Caolan Mooney drove them on.

It's another huge test against the Orchard this week, but had we been looking at a Donegal v Armagh semi-final, opinions would certainly have been divided on who would win, so Down ought to believe that if they can reach the same heights as Letterkenny, they have every chance of moving into an Ulster final and sealing their place in the All-Ireland series.

It certainly won't be easy and if the 2024 provincial semi-final between the teams - won by Armagh thanks to a late Jason Duffy point - is anything to go by, it's going to be a close-run thing.

By the time they throw in at 16:00 BST, they may already be same in the Sam Maguire competition as Westmeath's Leinster semi-final against Kildare in Tullamore throws in at 14:00.

Much like Down, Mark McHugh's Westmeath upset the odds against heavy favourites in their provincial semi-final, but their eye for goal proved crucial as Matthew Whittaker, Shane Corcoran, Robbie Forde and Danny McCartan rattled the net in a five-point win over Meath.

Luke Loughlin led the way with six points, but the Lake County have been dealt a serious blow with their talisman confirming his year is over due to a due to a hamstring tear and tendon rupture that requires surgery.

Still, they will feel Kildare is a winnable game having fallen short by two points when they met last year at the quarter-final stage, so Down certainly can't be relying on the Lilywhites.

As for Cavan, it's going to be an uncomfortable afternoon for Dermot McCabe and his players with their fate firmly out of their hands.

They need either Down or Westmeath to fall - possible, but certainly no guarantees.