Why this year’s Kentucky Derby is wide open | The Excerpt

**On the Thursday, April 30, 2026, episode of The Excerpt podcast:**The Kentucky Derby returns with a wide open field and plenty of uncertainty. USA TODAY’s Dana Taylor speaks with Courier Journal reporters Jason Frakes and Kirby Adams about the top contenders, betting angles, fashion, traditions and what defines the Derby experience.

**Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript beneath it.**This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.

Podcasts:True crime, in-depth interviews and more USA TODAY podcasts right here

Dana Taylor:

Every year, the Kentucky Derby turns Louisville into the center of the sports world. It's loud, it's crowded, it's a little chaotic, more than a little chaotic, and it all comes down to just two minutes on the track. But for longtime fans and first-time viewers alike, the Derby is about more than who crosses the finish line first. It's about traditions, instincts, and the small details that can make or break a race before it even begins.

Hello, and welcome to USA TODAY's The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Thursday, April 30th, 2026. Joining me to set the stage for this year's race are Courier Journal Horse Racing Reporter Jason Frakes and Lifestyle and Entertainment Reporter Kirby Adams. Thank you both so much for joining me once again this year to talk about the Derby.

Kirby Adams:

Happy Derby.

Jason Frakes:

Thanks for having us.

Dana Taylor:

Jason, the Kentucky Derby has more than 150 years of history, but every year feels different. What's the biggest storyline or storylines shaping this year's race?

Jason Frakes:

I think from a pure horse racing standpoint, the term wide open I think it's overused, but I think it works this year.

Going into last year's race, I think there were two horses: Sovereignty and Journalism. I think those were by far the two favorites. I think everyone was going to be surprised if one of those two horses didn't win the race if it came down to those two. Sovereignty won and Journalism finished second.

I think this year you go into the race and there's seven or eight horses that no one would be surprised if any of those won the race this year. You start with Renegade; he's the favorite, but he also drew the number one post. So a horse from the number one post hasn't won the race in 40 years. So how much does that inside post sort of compromise his chances?

I just think that it's a lot more wide open this year. All of the big horses have question marks surrounding them. So from a gambling perspective, I think it might be a year that if you like a long shot, this is the year to go with that long shot.

Dana Taylor:

Jason, in previous years, there were serious concerns about horse safety and conditions at Churchill Downs. Where do things stand now with this issue? Has confidence been restored?

Jason Frakes:

Yeah, 2023, I think there were 12 or 13 horse deaths during the spring meet at Churchill Downs. I don't know how much confidence has been restored. I will say it hasn't been as much of an issue the last couple of years. There's better testing now. I think for horses, they're going through more testing to see if there might be an injury maybe that a trainer hasn't seen yet. There are more veterinary inspections.

So there's more ways of maybe finding out and preventing these things before they happen. Obviously, Churchill Downs is hopeful that it doesn't become the issue that it was three years ago, for sure.

Dana Taylor:

Jason, there have been some real changes this season, from how the races are scheduled to how fans can follow and bet on them. How much do those changes truly matter to fans?

Jason Frakes:

Well, it matters a lot to the people in Louisville. I can tell you that, the people who go to the races every year, who plan on this, who have family traditions surrounding the Oaks and the Derby. The Oaks is the Friday race before the Derby. And that's the biggest change this year. That race has traditionally been run at around 5:30 PM on Friday afternoon. They made the change this year to run that race at 8:45 Friday night in primetime so that they could get a national television audience on NBC.

Derby weekend is huge for the businesses around here. So there are a lot of restaurants around the city who are concerned about the race being at 8:45 instead of 5:30; how that's going to affect their business. They didn't change the Kentucky Derby. It'll still be around 7:00 on Saturday night, so nothing's changed with that race.

Dana Taylor:

You mentioned Renegade. Which three horses should people be watching this year? And beyond the favorites, are there any names that might surprise us?

Jason Frakes:

Renegade, definitely the deserving favorite, but I think a lot of people are going to maybe look elsewhere because of his number one post position. Brad Cox is a trainer from Louisville who has three horses in the race, including two of the favorites; Commandment and Further Ado. I think both of those horses have big chances to win the race. Chief Walgeby is another horse that people like. Emerging market is an interesting story. He's only raced twice, which is not very many races going into the Derby, but he's won both of them. I think he has a big chance.

And then, kind of the long shot that a lot of people are talking about is Danon Bourbon. He's a horse from Japan. A Japan horse has never won the race, but Danon Bourbon is undefeated, and he's kind of the wildcard in this race. People don't really know much about him because he's coming over from Japan, but he has a big chance as well.

Dana Taylor:

I love the names. Jason, there's a long-running stat about a particular post position that's never produced a Derby winner. What does that tell us, if anything, about how much the small details matter?

Jason Frakes:

Yeah. So, the number 17 post in the gate, the horse number 17, there's been a horse in that position 46 times, and that horse has never won the race. So the number 17 post position, and that year, that horse is six feet. I think it's more of a statistical anomaly than anything else. But does it matter? It does matter to those who follow these sort of things, and who maybe base their bets on superstition rather than checking speed figures and things like that.

Dana Taylor:

Kirby, the Kentucky Derby is of course a sporting event, but it's also regarded as a tentpole social event. What are the standout themes you're seeing this year?

Kirby Adams:

Well, I think one of the most interesting things about the Kentucky Derby is for a large sporting event like this ... think about the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby, I don't think the Stanley Cup has a lot of women coming to it ... but Kentucky Derby has a huge number of women who come to this event. And it's been like that since the very beginning in 1875, because it was billed as an elegant event as well as a sporting event.

So I think what really stands out is the fact that women come to this because they like to get dressed up. They like to be there with their partner. And they may know something about horse racing. They may not know anything about horse racing.

I've talked about this with other people in the community who are very involved with this whole entire event, and they really say that it stands out as a sporting event where both men and women are equally excited about what is going on. And so what happens is it becomes this giant fashion runway as well as a horse racing event.

Dana Taylor:

Each year, a different performer is tapped to sing the national anthem. Who is coming in this year to do that?

Kirby Adams:

I'm so glad you asked that because I just looked at my page view numbers for announcing who it would be because it's always a big secret. And this hasn't been going on forever, by the way. This started in the early 2000s that a national anthem singer was brought in, somebody that was well known nationally, internationally.

Now it's become a secret. They don't reveal it until very close to the race day. And we just announced that it's going to be Tedeschi Trucks Band. Last year it was Grace Potter. Before that, it was Wynonna Judd. And Wynonna Judd is from Kentucky. So she really felt like it was a great honor to perform the national anthem. We've had Carly Pearce, who's also a Kentuckian. We're waiting for Chris Stapleton to come and do it for us because he is also from Kentucky. But Harry Connick Jr., Josh Groban. So it's become a very big deal to sing the national anthem.

And the other celebrity announcement that always comes each year is called Riders Up. Right before the jockeys mount their horses, there's a command given, which is riders up, and that means mount your horse. But it's now become a celebrity comes in and does that. Last year it was Simone Biles, and she did a great job. It's just the excitement. There's so much electricity in the paddock right before the jockeys mount their horses. And I just got goosebumps thinking about it. So that's another kind of celebrity sighting that will happen at the Kentucky Derby.

Dana Taylor:

I'm going to circle back to fashion hats are, of course, an iconic feature of the race. How do race fans create a unique ensemble here? And is there a color or a look that might stand out this year?

Kirby Adams:

So every year, I start reporting about the fashion at the Kentucky Derby in February, because you need to start thinking about your hat that far in advance if you want to have a custom-made hat because you have to decide, am I going to go for the hat first or for the dress or the outfit first?

I want to say one thing before I launch into that, and that is that men are really wearing hats a lot to this. They're wearing fedoras, pork pies, just straw bowlers and that kind of thing. And then they're accenting them with different colored ribbons, maybe a little feather in the side. So when I'm talking about fashion, I'm talking about men as well as women. And people start thinking these outfits out months in advance.

This year, the colors that we were seeing on the runway were more browns and chocolatey kind of colors. I don't think we're going to see a lot of that at the Kentucky Derby this year, but I do think we'll see lots of pink, lots of blue.

Dana Taylor:

Kirby, there's buzz around a new Hallmark movie that was filmed at Churchill Downs, which premieres Saturday night. What can you tell me about Kentucky Roses?

Kirby Adams:

Kentucky Roses is a typical Hallmark film. It's the love story between a florist at Churchill Downs and the CEO's son, and it involves a rush to finish some projects before the Kentucky Derby runs on May the 2nd.

Dana Taylor:

Finally, you've both covered this event for years. Briefly, what are you most looking forward to this year? I'll start with you, Jason.

Jason Frakes:

My favorite moment of the Kentucky Derby, and Kirby mentioned this, is that moment in the paddock when they say riders up, the jockeys get on the horses; they parade out to the track. And that's also when the UofL band plays My Old Kentucky Home. It's just a special moment. The entire crowd is seeing it.

One year in my life, I did not live in Kentucky; I lived in Florida, and I threw a Kentucky Derby party. And I remember watching that moment on TV and it kind of got to me a little bit not being in Kentucky for the Kentucky Derby.

So I think that's a moment that a lot of people who follow the Derby recognize. But as someone from Kentucky, I think it's sort of an annual reminder of where we come from.

Kirby Adams:

You know what, Jason? I have to agree with you on that because I'm not from Kentucky, but I've been here for almost 30 years, and I get really choked up when everybody in the stands starts to sing My Old Kentucky Home. And just I have never been to any other event in my life where the electricity is just zooming back and forth throughout 150,000 people the way it is at the Kentucky Derby. There's nothing, nothing like it.

Dana Taylor:

Jason Frakes is a horse racing reporter for The Courier Journal, and Kirby Adams is a lifestyle and entertainment reporter also with The Courier Journal. Thank you both so much for coming back and joining me.

Kirby Adams:

Sure.

Dana Taylor:

Thank you.

Kirby Adams:

Happy Derby, as we say here in Kentucky.

Dana Taylor:

Happy Derby.

Thanks to our senior producer, Kaely Monahan, for her production assistance. Our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcasts at usatoday.com.

Thanks for listening. I'm Dana Taylor. I'll be back tomorrow morning with another episode of USA TODAY's The Excerpt.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: No clear favorite at this year’s Kentucky Derby | The Excerpt