Why Tigers likely won't trade Tarik Skubal even if 2026 season unravels

Detroit might be headed toward some regression without Skubal, but with the Tigers in a weak division, once Skubal does return, they might still have a decent chance to make up the difference in the AL Central.

That alone would make Skubal not likely to be traded. But, there's another big issue that teams will have with Skubal: how he looks coming back from injury.

If Skubal falters a bit coming off surgery, it will be hard for teams to trade for Skubal and be confident he'll be elite for them in the second half of 2026.

But, Skubal's production isn't just tied to interested teams; it's tied to the return the Tigers could get. If he struggles, teams might not offer a ton for Skubal. And the Tigers aren't going to part with the two-time Cy Young winner without getting a ton back.

So, if Skubal is struggling after his return, it will be a lot more difficult to trade him away for the value the Tigers are looking for.

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There's really only one scenario in which trading Skubal would have a semblance of a chance of happening.

If the Tigers are well out of the postseason race by the time Skubal returns, and Skubal comes back from this elbow surgery looking as good as ever, then maybe a team would be willing to part with a ton of value for the lefty ace.

Nightengale shared one MLB GM's reasoning for why a Skubal trade won't happen: "I just think they have too much money invested in this team to give up. I just can't see them moving Skubal. They're into this so deep."

As much as the theory of trading Skubal for a haul makes sense, in reality, it's hard for the right scenario to play out for the Tigers to not only be willing to trade Skubal, but also for teams to be willing to part with the compensation the Tigers are looking for.

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