Why West Ham vs Arsenal could be the most decisive game in Premier League history

Consider the cascading stakes. If Arsenal win, they would be able to see the trophy. It would leave fixtures against a relegated Burnley and a Crystal Palace preparing for a Europa Conference final three days later. There’s also the possibility of City being affected by the sense of the title drifting away.

Arsenal would close in on the title with victory against West Ham (Reuters)

Arsenal have enjoyed a week of giddy highs after reaching the Champions League final (Getty)

On the other side, a West Ham defeat would mathematically secure Leeds United’s survival, the day before Daniel Farke’s side have an away game at Tottenham Hotspur. It’s impossible not to think Leeds' intensity would be affected, and Spurs could secure another crucial win. That could be fatal for West Ham. It only ratchets up that pressure.

Conversely, if Arsenal fail to win, the immediate consequences aren’t as pronounced but there is the potential of that doom and gloom returning to the club as West Ham enjoy a new life. There'd be yet another swing; a twist.

West Ham may need to beat Arsenal to keep their Premier League survival hopes alive (Getty)

One of the most remarkable things about all of this, given the richness of Premier League history, is how rarely there's been a fixture like it. The comparable examples are few.

In 1994-95, a badly stuttering Blackburn Rovers beat Crystal Palace 2-1 four games from an end which saw Rovers win the title by a point and Palace go down by three. In 1998-99, Blackburn were on the other end of that as a 0-0 draw at Ewood Park relegated them but was also just enough for Manchester United to win the title by a point. In 2002-03, Bolton Wanderers’ shock 2-2 comeback against Arsenal gave them a point crucial to staying up over West Ham United, while just affording Manchester United crucial distance to Arsenal with three games left.

In 2011-12 – in maybe the closest parallel to this Sunday but with more games to – Wigan Athletic beat United 2-0 to recharge their own survival surge while starting a stunning fall by Sir Alex Ferguson’s side. There was similar in 2013-14 when Sunderland surprisingly beat Chelsea 2-1 at Stamford Bridge to turn the tide at both ends.

Important as these and a handful of other games were, none of them involved direct consequences that are quite as acute as what Sunday might allow. The stakes may even have an overt effect on the very game state.

Arsenal and West Ham both have it all on the line (PA Wire)

In normal circumstances, you would think that West Ham’s best possibility of a result would be to sit tight and to frustrate Arsenal. It’s worked well for Nuno so many times this season. It’s been proven to work well in some key games against Arsenal.

And that would be fine if West Ham had enough fixtures left for a draw to feel really valuable. But they don’t. They need wins, especially with Spurs resurgent.

At some point, West Ham have to go for it.

And that’s against an Arsenal who look more willing to go for it than at any point over the past four months. How couldn’t they when you consider the boosts that Arteta's side have enjoyed over the past week alone? There was first the revitalising nature of the sweeping 3-0 win over Fulham. There was then City’s draw at Everton. And then there was qualification for the greatest game in club football, and all the euphoria from that.

Mikel Arteta has guided Arsenal into the Champions League final but must ensure there is no comedown (Getty)

That is a lot of good feeling in the space of five days, after weeks of angst. Arsenal will surely be on a wave.

It helps that Myles Lewis-Skelly has restored a badly-needed positive energy, in what might be an inspired return. The teenager only adds to Arsenal’s multiple options, with so many injured players returning. There’s even the psychological security of how they incredibly have club football’s greatest prize – the Champions League – as a “bonus”.

It all looks so good for them. But that can also be precisely the moment when it goes bad, where teams get too settled.

That wave can break. If West Ham do dig in, can the old frustration quickly return? Can Nuno exploit that? Can the very meaning of the title take over again?

There’s so much at play here, because there’s so much on the line. Even the Premier League has seen little like it.