Wide-open Kentucky Derby leaves experts struggling to pick favorite

Renegade on the rail

Renegade was set as the 4-1 favorite on the morning line, but last weekend he drew the inside No. 1 post position on the rail. No horse has won the Derby from there since Ferdinand in 1986.

"It’s not the one we would have chosen," Pletcher said. “It’s not ideal, but it’s what we got and we’ll do the best we can with it."

When Pletcher watched replays of every race since the new starting gate was introduced in 2020, he thought his horses and others on the rail were negatively affected and their chances compromised. The last horse to break from the very inside to finish in the money was Lookin At Lee in 2017.

Irad Ortiz Jr. is being counted on to navigate Renegade through the 1 1/4-mile journey around the dirt track at Churchill Downs, and while he has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, he's in his prime as one of the best jockeys in the world.

“Irad’s riding in great form right now, so they just got to work it out,” Pletcher said. “I think his natural running style is to kind of settle and make one run like he has been doing, so we’re not looking to change that.”

Cox's trio is a duo but still formidable

Cox entered three horses but is down to two after ruling out Fulleffort on Thursday because of a chip in the colt's left hind ankle. Mark Casse's Silent Tactic and Kenny McPeek's Right to Party were also scratched, putting Great White, Ocelli and Robusta into the field on the far outside.

Commandment and Further Ado each has shown the ability to finish first in this deep class of 3-year-olds. Commandment has won four in a row, including the Florida Derby, while Further Ado bounced back from a lengthy absence and won the Blue Grass Stakes.

They will now face rivals who thrived all over the country.

“There's a lot of talent, obviously, coming from different regions, whether it’s California, Florida, Louisiana, New York,” Cox said. “I do feel like the horses in Florida were definitely the strongest region this year.”

Bob Baffert's Potente was second to So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby in Southern California, and Litmus Test comes from Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. Baffert is tied for the most Derby victories among trainers and can take sole possession of the record if one of his long shots comes through.

With Danon Bourbon and homebred Wonder Dean, Japan again has strong presence two years after Forever Young was a close third. The country is in search of its first Derby win.

No super horse?

It does not look like there is a super horse in this field who is capable of sweeping the Triple Crown like Justify in 2018 and American Pharoah in 2015.

“There’s by no means an American Pharoah in here, at least up to this point, going into the race,” Brown said. “Now, whoever wins this race and goes on, maybe one emerges and turns into one of the best 3-year-olds in the last few years. Who knows?”

The bigger question is whether any of them would get the chance, given the reluctance of owners and trainers to run a horse two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes, which this year takes place at Laurel Park while Pimlico Race Course is rebuilt. Two of the past four Kentucky Derby winners did not run in the Preakness, which could soon move from the third to the fourth weekend in May to attract more horses.