The forecast for Kentucky Derby week indicates mostly sunny skies on Derby Day, May 2, 2026, but rain is expected in the days leading up to the event at Churchill Downs.
Key points
Kentucky Derby week starts soon
Mostly sunny forecast for Derby Day
Rain expected before May 2
Common rain patterns during Derby week
Churchill Downs is the event location
Mentioned in this story
Churchill DownsLouisville
Kentucky Derby
Will it rain during 2026 Kentucky Derby week? See forecast for coming days at Churchill Downs
Rain is common during Kentucky Derby week in Louisville. While forecasters are calling for mostly sunny skies on Derby Day, those heading to the track before May 2 could see less favorable conditions.
Here’s what to know about rain chances for this year’s races.
Kentucky Derby 2026 weather forecast
As of Wednesday, April 29, meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Louisville predict that mostly sunny skies will become partly cloudy, with a high near 60 and a low around 39.
Weather forecast for Louisville, Kentucky, April 29 - May 2, 2026
The extended weather forecast for Louisville, Kentucky, is as follows:
🌧️⛅Wednesday, April 29, Winsday: There is a 90% chance of precipitation, with showers and thunderstorms possible before noon and a slight chance of showers between noon and 1 p.m. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch are expected.
Skies become partly cloudy, with a high around 68 and a low near 45. Light north winds increase to 6-11 mph in the morning, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Northwest winds of 5-9 mph in the evening become light north after midnight.
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🌤️☀️Thursday, April 30****, Thurby: Sunny skies become partly cloudy, with a high near 65 and a low around 46. Calm winds become northwest of 5-7 mph in the morning, before becoming calm in the evening.
🌦️⛅Friday, May 1, Kentucky Oaks: There is a 20% chance of showers before 2 p.m. Partly sunny skies become mostly cloudy, with a high around 62 and a low near 40. Calm winds become northwest of 5-7 mph in the afternoon.
⛅🌤️🏇 Saturday, May 2, Kentucky Derby: Mostly sunny skies become partly cloudy, with a high near 60 and a low around 39.
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado walks by a sign honoring Sovereignty -- which he rode to a win in the 2025 Kentucky Derby -- at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabe outside trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026.
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Chief Wallabee is walked back his stall at trainer Bill Mott's barn on the backside of Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 19, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Incredibolt in his stall at Trainer Riley Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Pin Oak Stud won the Virginia Derby. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bill Mott at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Mott has Chief Wallabee in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott in the stall of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott carries the saddlecloth of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working in his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott on the backside during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott watches training on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee for trainer Bill Mott. Alvarado won the 2025 Kentucky Derby aboard Sovereignty. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado walks by a sign honoring Sovereignty -- which he rode to a win in the 2025 Kentucky Derby -- at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabe outside trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026.
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See full field of horses racing in the 2026 Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Chief Wallabee is walked back his stall at trainer Bill Mott's barn on the backside of Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 19, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Incredibolt in his stall at Trainer Riley Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Pin Oak Stud won the Virginia Derby. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bill Mott at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Mott has Chief Wallabee in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Trainer Riley Mott in the stall of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Trainer Riley Mott carries the saddlecloth of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working in his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Trainer Riley Mott on the backside during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Trainer Riley Mott watches training on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee for trainer Bill Mott. Alvarado won the 2025 Kentucky Derby aboard Sovereignty. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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See full field of horses racing in the 2026 Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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A peek at the backside of Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
How often does it rain on Kentucky Derby Day?
Out of 151 Kentucky Derbies, 73 have experienced rain at some point during the day — that's 48%, according to historical records maintained by the National Weather Service. The wettest day on record happened May 5, 2018, when 3.15 inches of precipitation fell in Louisville.
What was 2025 Kentucky Derby weather like?
Sovereignty won the 151st Run for the Roses on a sloppy track after 0.37 inches of rain fell on Churchill Downs last year. It ended a five-year streak of Derby horses running on a fast track. The high of the cloudy day was 65 degrees.
