Will new transfer poaching penalties actually matter? Or just shift the “game” underground?

EL PASO, TEXAS - DECEMBER 29: NCAA referee Scott Walker throws a penalty flag during the Sun Bowl college football game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Oregon State Beavers on December 20, 2023 in El Paso, Texas. Notre Dame defeated OSU 40-8. (Photo by Kirby Lee/Getty Images) | Getty Images

If you’ve followed the evolution of the NCAA transfer portal over the last five years, you already know this: every “solution” seems to create a new loophole. And now, in 2026, we’ve reached the latest attempt at restoring order; hammering down on so-called “ghost transfers” and back-channel tampering with some of the stiffest penalties the sport has seen in years.

On paper, it sounds like a deterrent.

In reality? Maybe it’s just a speed bump.

The NCAA’s bet: fear as a deterrent

The NCAA’s new legislation is about as heavy-handed as it gets.

Programs caught adding or working with transfers before they officially enter the portal now face automatic penalties, including a head coach suspension for roughly half a season and fines equaling 20% of a program’s budget.

Earlier proposals even included roster reductions and multi-game bans; signaling how serious the governing body is about closing the loophole.

This is not the NCAA gently nudging. This is the NCAA trying to slam the door shut.

From the association’s perspective, the logic is simple:

• Attach consequences directly to the head coach
• Make those consequences immediate and automatic
• Raise the cost of cheating high enough that it’s no longer worth it

It’s a departure from the NCAA’s historically slow, bureaucratic enforcement model. No drawn-out investigations. No years-later punishments. Just bip, bam, boom — penalty triggered.

If you’re a mid-major coach who’s watched your roster get picked apart every off-season, you probably welcome this. It feels like protection; like someone is finally acknowledging the imbalance.

But feelings and outcomes aren’t always the same.

The skeptic’s view: “You can’t police conversations”

The pushback, most notably highlighted in reporting from CBS Sports, is rooted in a simple truth: enforcement is only as good as your ability to prove violations. In the NIL and transfer era, it’s murky.

Coaches across the country are already skeptical, because tampering rarely happens in ways that are easily traceable.

There’s no paper trail when:

• A “family friend” makes a call
• A third-party NIL collective floats an offer
• A handler or trainer relays interest

By the time a player hits the portal, the groundwork has often already been laid.

That’s the uncomfortable reality: the NCAA is trying to regulate a marketplace that has decentralized itself. Conversations don’t happen in compliance offices they happen in text threads, DMs, and back channels.

So while the NCAA can punish what it can prove, the real game operates in the gray.

The mid-major dilemma: Protection or false hope?

For Group of Five and mid-major programs, this rule is being sold as a lifeline. Stop the poaching. Level the field.

But does this truly level the field? It just changes the rules of engagement.

Power programs still have:

• Larger NIL budgets
• Deeper donor networks
• More visibility and exposure

More importantly, they have more resources to navigate ambiguity.

Even if a handful of violations get punished early (and they likely will, to send a message), the long-term effect may look familiar:

• Smaller programs lose players after breakout seasons
• Larger programs reload through the portal
• Everyone operates just carefully enough to avoid getting caught

The portal itself, originally designed for transparency, has ironically become a tool that exposes when a move becomes official, not when it actually begins.

Can this ever have “teeth”?

Here’s the real question: what would it take for these rules to actually bite?

Right now, the NCAA is trying to enforce behavior in a system that rewards bending the edges.

To give this legislation real teeth, a few things would likely need to happen:

1. Third-party accountability
Penalties hit schools and coaches, but much of the influence flows through NIL collectives and outside actors. Until those entities are directly regulated or tied to enforcement, the system remains porous.

2. Whistleblower incentives
If tampering is hard to detect, then information has to come from within. That means protections (or incentives) for players, staffers, or agents willing to expose violations.

3. Standardized NIL contracts
One of the biggest gray areas is inducements disguised as NIL deals. Without standardized structures, distinguishing “legal opportunity” from “illegal recruiting” becomes nearly impossible.

4. Cultural buy-in (good luck)
This might be the toughest one. Coaches, especially at the highest level, are wired to find competitive edges. That’s not a bug; it’s a feature. Expecting total compliance in a system built on advantage-seeking is…optimistic.

The bottom line: Deterrent or illusion?

The NCAA deserves credit for recognizing the problem and acting more decisively than it has in the past.

Automatic penalties tied to head coaches are not nothing. They will scare some programs into tightening operations.

But will it stop poaching? No.

What it will do is push it further into the shadows.

Because in modern college football, especially in the gap between mid-majors and power programs, the real currency isn’t just talent. It’s access, information and timing and those things are incredibly hard to regulate.

So yes, the NCAA has drawn a line.

The question now is whether anyone with real power is actually afraid to cross it or just smart enough not to get caught.