Will the Diamondbacks be a Wild Card?

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Inspiration.

In the game thread on 1 May**,** there was some doubt about the sustainability of the Diamondbacks’ performance (16 wins, 14 losses before the game started).The game was close, with the Diamondbacks losing by one run.

For whatever reason, the Diamondbacks are not pitching well in the first inning.   With my optimistic viewpoint, I’m confident the problem can be fixed.  Perhaps the fix is as simple as using an opener for every game (as suggested in the thread).

The first inning ERAs for Diamondbacks pitchers (3 game minimum, games through 3 May) follow:

• Nelson, 12.79 ERA
• Soroka, 10.5 ERA
• Kelly, 9.0 ERA
• Gallen, 6.43 ERA
• Rodriguez, 6.00 ERA
• Pfaadt, 3.00 ERA

Fixing the first inning pitching would go a long way toward the Diamondbacks reaching a wild card berth into the playoffs.  Let’s look at how likely is it that the Diamondbacks will reach the playoffs?

Wins needed to be a wild card – Last 4 seasons.

The following list shows wins needed to gain a NL wild card berth into the playoffs.  The list only includes seasons after the playoff format changed.

• 2022, 87 wins.
• 2023, 84 wins.
• 2024, 89 wins.
• 2025, 83 wins

My conclusion: this season, if the Diamondbacks win 84 games they will have a 50% chance of a wild card; win 87 games they will have a 75% chance of a wild card; and win 89 games they will have a 99% chance of a wild card.

Wins needed to be a wild card – 3 projections.

On 29 April, two projections (Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus) showed 86 wins would earn a wild card.  The FanGraphs projection showed that 83 wins would do it, but it projected the Diamondbacks with only 82 wins.

How many games will the Diamondbacks win?

My final preseason prediction was that the Diamondbacks will win 85.1 games.  That was about the same as my Too Early Win Projection.  Based on historic wins needed, 85 wins would give the Diamondbacks slightly over 50% chance of a wild card.  However, this season is unusual because the range of possible wins is very wide.

“This season is unusual because of the wide range of possible wins. My view is that the Diamondbacks will win between 81 and 89 games, depending on the health and performances of nearly all Diamondbacks players. Therefore, my confidence that they will reach the playoffs is less than 50%. Nevertheless, there is a realistic chance of reaching the playoffs…. Makakilo, 23 March Round Table

An Alternate way of predicting whether the Diamondbacks will be a wild card.

“…the following statistics from the Wild Card Series could predict which teams will advance deep into in the playoffs:“

• Teams with at least 23 hits in a 3 game series.
• The team with the most triples in a 3-game series.
• Teams with at least 3 stolen bases in a 3-game series.
• Teams that win an epic battle.
• Teams with at least 9 RBIs in a 3-game series.

Let’s expand that view to regular season games against likely wild card teams.  Through 3 May, the Diamondbacks played 3 teams that could be NL wild cards:

• 2 game series against Padres.  11 hits per game, 1 triple, & 8 RBIs per game indicate that the Diamondbacks could do well as a wild card.
• 3-game series against the Brewers.  6.7 hits per game, & 3.7 RBIs per game indicate that the Diamondbacks could be average as a wild card.
• 3-game series against the Cubs.  7.3 hits per game, & 3 RBIs per game indicate that the Diamondbacks could be average as a wild card (despite the Cubs sweeping the series).

Perspective:  Sustainable Performance.

Batting is a strength of the Diamondbacks.  In games through 3 May, the Diamondbacks 4.55 runs per game ranked 11th in the Majors. Players such as Nolan Arenado seem to be improving during the season.

Pitching sustainability will be boosted by players returning from the injury list.

In 1-run games through 3 May, the Diamondbacks’ 6 wins and 5 losses (39 runs scored and 38 runs allowed) was about average.  However, this could improve because my feeling is that the Diamondbacks are at their best in 1-run games.

Leveraged batter run value is encouraging.

A hat tip to Preston Salisbury because in a game thread he made a comment about base runs.  That prompted me to look at Baseball Savant and found the following data about batter run value.

In games through 28 April, the Diamondbacks batters created +15 leveraged runs, which was higher than most other NL contenders for wild card berths.  Examples were the Cubs (+21), the Padres (+6), Pirates (+3), the Phillies (negative 19), and the Mets (negative 24).  The Diamondbacks ranked eighth highest in the Majors.

Summary: Will the Diamondbacks reach a wild card berth into the playoffs?

First inning pitching is a problem. All things considered, my prediction is the Diamondbacks will win 85 games.

Looking at the broad range of possible season wins (81 to 89 games), how well the Diamondbacks play could greatly impact their chances, either negatively of positively.  It’s encouraging that the Diamondbacks batters created more leveraged runs than most NL contenders for wild card berths. The Diamondbacks performance may be sustainable for several reasons.

In two of the last four seasons, it only took 84 wins to obtain a NL wild card berth in the playoffs.  Three different projections estimate that this season it will take between 83 and 86 wins.

With the problems that the Phillies and Mets have experienced, and with the Diamondbacks [recently] above 500, there is a real chance (about 50%) for the Diamondbacks to reach a wild card berth into the playoffs!

The Padres will likely be a NL wild card.  If the Diamondbacks win most of their games against the Padres (they play 11 more times this season) that will be a big step in controlling their destiny.