With hindsight, the 2024 Rockets-Nets draft deal is aging well for Houston

With Sunday’s 2026 draft lottery results in the books, that second Brooklyn selection is now set at No. 6 overall.

So in effect, Rockets general manager Rafael Stone brought in three future first-round picks — and neither Phoenix nor Dallas appears anywhere close to title contention, at the moment — in exchange for one selection that didn’t finish among the top five of its class.

And that’s before factoring in incentives. Had Brooklyn not re-acquired its 2026 pick, the Nets would have been more incentivized to try and build a winning roster for the 2025-26 campaign, which likely would have reduced the expected value of the pick going to Houston.

But even if one assumes that the Nets were likely to have the same results, regardless of incentive, the ultimate placement of the 2025 and 2026 picks shows that Stone and the Rockets did well with the asset return.

As far as final judgments, the eventual placement of those three future picks from the Suns (2027 and 2029) and Mavericks (2029) is still unclear. It’s also possible that one or more could be used in future trades.

So, time will tell as to just how good the trade was for Houston.

Nonetheless, barring a rapid ascension to the top of the Western Conference by Phoenix and/or Dallas, it appears very likely that the combined value of those three picks will easily exceed the one 2026 selection at No. 6.

For Houston, the potential cherry on top is that the Rockets still own a right to swap 2027 first-round picks with the Nets. It’s the final asset from the original Harden trade, which already resulted in Reed Sheppard (2024) and Tari Eason (2022) joining the Rockets.

And because the Nets didn’t land a top pick in 2026 (or a premium trade asset, which can result from a lofty pick), that could make it all the more difficult for Brooklyn to win games at a high level in 2027.

Even if factoring in the NBA’s rumored lottery odds changes, the Rockets (52-30 last season) would appear very likely to exercise that 2027 swap with the Nets (20-62) and land a much improved selection.

For now, the bad news for the Rockets is that their own 2026 first-round pick belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder as the final piece of the ill-fated July 2019 trade involving Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook.

So, in terms of immediately fortifying next season’s roster, the Rockets only have a pair of 2026 second-round picks (No. 39 and No. 53 overall) to draft with this summer.

But in 2027 and beyond, the Rockets have all of their own first-round draft equity available, along with three potentially valuable incoming assets from the Suns and Nets.

For Stone and the Rockets, who recently suffered a second consecutive disappointing exit in the first round of the playoffs, it’s a reminder that brighter days could be ahead.

More: Explaining the complex draft deal between the Rockets, Nets

This article originally appeared on Rockets Wire: With hindsight, the 2024 Rockets-Nets draft deal is aging well for Houston