With Homers No. 19 and 20, Schwarber Shows No Signs of Slowing Down

Only Getting Better With Age

They say wine gets better with age, but so does Kyle Schwarber. In the first seven seasons of his career, he never reached the 40-homer mark. But in the four seasons following, Schwarber has surpassed 40 home runs three times. The sole time he failed to reach that was in 2024, when he hit 38. And even though he surpassed a career high last season with 56, Schwarber seems to have gotten better in 2026.

His 165 wRC+ is at an all-time high, compared to last year’s 152 mark. ISO is a statistic that measures pure power hitting, calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. Schwarber has a ridiculous .384 ISO mark. That production at the plate has been worth 1.5 WAR for the slugger in just 45 games. That puts him on pace for 5.4 WAR on the season. For a player who only contributes with his bat, that’s a very high number.

Statistical Anomalies

Statcast has a few graphs of Schwarber’s plate production that help to explain his profile as a three true outcomes player. The first two (seen below) show his hot zones as a power hitter, with the red on the image indicating the majority of where his home runs are hit.

As you would expect, these zones are fairly similar, with the middle of the zone being the primary place where Schwarber makes quality contact. An interesting metric is the top right portion of each figure. Those are pitches that are high and inside, given that Schwarber is a left-handed batter. He’s doing an insane amount of damage on those pitches, with a 1.500 ISO and 2.000 SLG against them. His strikeout rate in that area is also fascinating (pictured below on the left). He’s yet to strike out on a pitch in that area of the zone, showcasing an elite ability to wait for that pitch and do damage.

Even more shocking are his on-base percentage numbers. The four quadrants outside the zone are a helpful way to measure plate discipline and walks. Schwarber owns a combined .559 OBP on pitches outside the zone which means he’s taking his walks in ridiculous fashion. He’s 11th in MLB in walks with 30, giving him a 14.7 percent walk rate.

Schwarber is an anomaly in that regard. Prior to him, the majority of sluggers known for getting better after their age-30 season were those using steroids. In the year that Barry Bonds slugged 73 home runs, a record that has yet to be broken, he had an .863 SLG and a .535 ISO. Schwarber is not nearly that good, but is accomplishing something similar without the help of performance-enhancing drugs.

The Phillies’ 2026 Season

It’s been a tough start to the year for Philadelphia, who fired manager Rob Thomson after a 9-19 start. They’ve since jumped to second in the National League East with a 22-23 record under interim manager Don Mattingly. Much of that success has been due to Schwarber’s bat. It’s impossible for one player to carry a team in baseball. But it often feels that the team could not be where they are without Schwarber; he’s that valuable.

If he can keep it up, he’ll establish himself as not only the greatest slugger in Philadelphia’s history, but one of the greatest across all of MLB’s history. While in Philly, he’s slugged an average of 47 home runs a season (2022-25). Given that, he’s on pace to get to 574 home runs by the time his contract with the Phillies ends in 2030. Only 28 players have ever reached the 500-homer plateau, and Schwarber seems poised to become no. 29.

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