Would Dodgers Still Be World Series Favorites Without Shohei Ohtani?

Nov 3, 2025; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani (17) and pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto (18) during the World Series championship parade and celebration. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

What if Shohei Ohtani missed the season?

Ohtani is the best player on the Dodgers, hands down, and he offers so much value up and down the order, in terms of flat-out production in both pitching and hitting, but also in his speed on the bases and the fear that hitters have.

Per Dan Szymboroski of FanGraphs, however, Ohtani’s absence from the Dodgers would not be enough to take away the World Series favorite crown from Los Angeles; in fact, they would still win the division.

“Losing Ohtani alone isn’t actually enough to cripple the Dodgers, even with how good he is, because the Ohtani-less Dodgers are still an 88- to 90-win team,” Szymboroski wrote.

“That’s enough to be the strongest team in the division by the projections. The Dodgers currently lead the NL West by a couple of games, and while that cushion is not an insurmountable barrier, it still keeps them as heavy favorites to win the division and one of the two teams most likely to secure a bye.”

Ohtani’s impact goes beyond what projections can account for, with the psychological toll of losing the team’s best player pronounced.

However, the Dodgers have the pitchers to cover for his loss in the rotation, and in the lineup, there is still enough star power to get over the line with the quality of pitching.

Losing Ohtani and Yamamoto

The calculus changes for the Dodgers if Ohtani and Yamamoto miss time. They would be lacking their true ace in Yamamoto, a workhorse who is so effective and reliable, with quality stuff and consistent command.

“Removing Ohtani and Yamamoto, on the other hand, is enough for the Dodgers to lose their status as World Series favorites. That’s a lot of value to lose, and it brings the Dodgers to down to a projection of about 86-87 wins; they’d still be the best in the division, but their probability to win the West would drop down to 60%,” Szymborski added.

“And with Los Angeles no longer a heavy favorite in the division, and actually a slight underdog for a bye, coupled with just being weaker, the team would see its World Series odds drop to 10.1%, with the Yankees up to 16.9%.”

The postseason rotation would likely be Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and likely, either Emmet Sheehan or Justin Wrobleski, or both.

While still good enough to compete for the World Series, the loss of Ohtani’s bat becomes extremely painful without a complete pitching staff, with Sheehan or Wrobleski pushed into uncomfortable roles.

Worst-case scenario: the Dodgers lose Tucker, Betts, Ohtani, and Yamamoto

In the truly worst possible scenario in terms of health, when the Dodgers lose four stars, the Dodgers would no longer be favorites to win the NL West, and their World Series odds tumble down the order.

The team would likely still be good enough to get a possible Wild Card spot if some of the fringe players stepped up.

While the Dodgers would need to suffer extremely bad luck for any of these scenarios to play out, it is intriguing to see how the projections change when one or two players are taken out of the equation.

Even more interesting is that Ohtani being out for the year does not immediately make the Dodgers the underdogs, despite his status as a generational player.

Their ability to survive without him, if it indeed came to that, is a credit to the depth and talent that their spending has afforded them.