Free agency grades: Sizing up the Eagles' Dontayvion Wicks trade and more

ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder and NFL analyst Ben Solak are grading the biggest NFL free agency signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players.

To determine each grade, Walder and Solak are evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age and the context of a team's short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we that it's a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team's chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?

Follow along as we evaluate and grade each big signing and trade, with the most recent moves at the top. So far, we've hit more than 60 deals.

Editor's note: We previously had a grade here for the proposed Ravens-Raiders trade involving Maxx Crosby, but it was removed after the announcement that the deal was off.

More coverage:
Tracking moves | Top 100 free agents
Winners, losers of Day 1
Free agency awards, superlatives

Jump to a notable deal:
Dalton | Waddle | Fields | Walker | Murray
Hargrave | Odighizuwa | Chubb | Chaisson
Hendrickson | Woolen | Pittman | Tagovailoa
Doubs | Seumalo | Paye | Evans | Lloyd

Packers trade WR Wicks to the Eagles

Eagles get: WR Dontayvion Wicks
Packers get: 2026 fifth-round pick, 2027 sixth-round pick

Eagles grade: B+
Packers grade: A

The Packers got a nice return on a player who was likely to walk after next season. The return certainly exceeds the potential Day 3 compensatory pick they could have gotten via his departure, and critically, the trade return is guaranteed, whereas comp picks are conditional on the Packers' lack of spending in 2027 free agency. Wicks was initially a Round 5 pick, returned multiple seasons of strong WR4 play and quality spot starts, and now brings a Round 5 pick back to Green Bay. The Packers will move forward with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden as the future at the position.

Eagles GM Howie Roseman is doing as good of a job straddling the line of a potential A.J. Brown trade as could reasonably be expected of him. In sending Day 3 picks for Wicks, Roseman has acquired a player who has previously been a depth WR and would provide occasional shot-play value behind Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Wicks was given a one-year, $12.5 million extension (presumably with some void years attached). In a two-year period, Wicks now makes just over $15M. That financial commitment does not guarantee him a big role. But Wicks is a player who might be capable of stepping into bigger shoes, should Brown depart. Inconsistent hands prevented him from breaking through in a dense rotation in Green Bay, but when injuries struck, he took to an expanded role well.

Wicks alone does not insulate the Eagles from losing Brown. But adding Wicks to Hollywood Brown and a middle-round pick that is presumably coming at the position gives them enough contributors to fill Brown's role in the aggregate. Roseman is doing well to prepare for the loss of Brown without building the receiver room so aggressively that he loses all leverage in trade talks, once they resume after June 1. -- Solak

Raiders sign QB Kirk Cousins

Terms: One year, $20 million fully guaranteed

Grade: A

This is about as good as backup quarterback signings get. Cousins is a grizzled veteran with a ton of familiarity in the Shanahan/McVay offensive tree, from which Klint Kubiak's offense spawns. Yes, there will be some sticker shock, but the Raiders are on the hook to pay Cousins only $11.3 million, as the Falcons are picking up the remaining $8.7 million via contract offsets. Should Cousins get thrown into action for an injured Fernando Mendoza (who is widely expected to go No. 1 to Las Vegas in this month's draft), I have no doubt that he could keep the ship afloat without much schematic change.

But Cousins will also be a great mentor to Mendoza. He has always been a sharp football mind and has a similar play style to Mendoza. These two quarterbacks also have similar personalities, and Cousins can help Mendoza learn how to lead an NFL locker room without putting on a false persona.

Earning the trust of the team is a critical step for any rookie quarterback, and Cousins is well equipped to shepherd Mendoza through that process. This is a great fit across the board. -- Solak

Eagles trade S Brown to the Falcons

Falcons get: S Sydney Brown, 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 122), 2026 sixth-round pick (No. 215)
Eagles get: 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 114), 2026 sixth-round pick (No. 197)

Falcons grade: B
Eagles grade: B

The Falcons acquired Brown, a former third-round pick, for pennies in a small-time deal.

Despite his Day 2 draft status, Brown did not develop into a regular defensive starter in Philadelphia. He played 319 defensive snaps as a rookie before tearing his ACL, which sidelined him until October 2024. He played just 78 defensive snaps that year and 236 last season.

Brown spent a decent amount of time at nickel as a rookie but was used as a full-time safety the past two seasons. Atlanta lost its primary nickel, Dee Alford, to the Bills in free agency, so it's possible that's where the Falcons want Brown to play. (Billy Bowman Jr., a 2025 fourth-round pick, also played some slot corner snaps last season.) Brown has also played significant snaps on special teams.

The deal suggests the Eagles weren't sure if Brown would make the team, especially considering how thin their roster is at safety. If that's true, it makes sense for them to take anything they can get in a trade for him now. Likewise, the acquisition cost is so tiny for Atlanta that it's worth it to see if it can find a contributor on an inexpensive deal. -- Walder

Panthers trade QB Dalton to Eagles

Eagles get: QB Andy Dalton
Panthers get: 2027 seventh-round pick

Eagles grade: B
Panthers grade: B

We've got a backup quarterback trade. And, with all due respect to Dalton, the most interesting thing about this deal is whether this forecasts another backup quarterback trade. Does this mean Tanner McKee will be on the move?

Because there's not really a reason the Eagles need both Dalton and McKee to back up Jalen Hurts. With McKee entering the last year of his deal, I wonder if Philadelphia feels it's worth it to bring in a one-year backup quarterback and deal McKee in exchange for future value.

At age 38, Dalton is well into his backup era. Over the past three seasons in Carolina, he has started seven games and recorded a 44.9 QBR in that span along with a minus-2% completion percentage over expected. He's not the kind of backup who would be expected to go on a run if the starter went down for the season (few are), but he might be able to stand in for a few games and keep the Eagles afloat if Hurts has a short-term injury. Those players are generally worth a little more than they're paid.

But the real value for Philadelphia is opening up the possibility of moving McKee -- who might net real draft capital or a player at another position.

As for the Panthers, they brought in Kenny Pickett on a one-year, $4 million deal, per OverTheCap.com, earlier this month. That's the exact same amount of 2026 cash they were due to pay Dalton. Swapping out the 38-year-old for Pickett and gaining a seventh-round pick in the process is perfectly reasonable. -- Walder

Dolphins trade WR Waddle to Broncos

Broncos get: WR Jaylen Waddle, 2026 fourth-round pick
Dolphins get: 2026 first-round pick, 2026 third-round pick, 2026 fourth-round pick

Broncos grade: B-
Dolphins grade: B+

The Broncos have a limited window. Before we get into the Waddle of it all, I think that's the critical piece of context from Denver's side. In Bo Nix, the team has a solid-but-not-great quarterback who is supported by an excellent offensive line and very good defense. Those are not the kind of teams that can sustain contention forever. But they were a real contender last year, coming up just short of the Super Bowl after Nix's playoff-ending ankle injury .

For a chance to contend again in 2026, Denver needed another playmaker for Nix and that offense. Their No. 1 wide receiver entering Tuesday was Courtland Sutton, who is underrated but turns 31 in October. And after him, the depth chart was quite barren with Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims Jr. -- all players with some potential but none near a certainty.

In Waddle, the Dolphins land a 27-year-old who was Miami's No. 1 option -- lining up mostly outside and on the line of scrimmage. He didn't crack 1,000 yards in either of the past two seasons, but that statistic sells his ability short.

Last season, Waddle recorded 2.3 yards per route run (10th-best among wide receivers with at least 300 routes) on a 25% target rate. His completed air yards per route (1.7) ranked eighth best. He ran deep outs, medium crossers and corner routes all at a top-10 rate. Waddle's yards per route run by season from 2022 to 2025 were 2.7, 2.8, 1.6 and 2.3, respectively. He's also consistently an above average separator, with open scores of 61, 67, 56 and 71 during those same four years, respectively.

Seventy-one is the most important number there because open score is the least reliant on a team's quarterback play, making it the most stable from year-to-year. The belief the Broncos need here is that with a better quarterback and a better offense in general around him, Waddle can return to the production levels from early in his career. Waddle recorded 1,356 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his sophomore 2022 campaign.

Now, is Waddle worth this whole package, which ESPN's draft pick valuations rates as the equivalent of a mid-first-round pick? If the Broncos don't sign him to a new contract, I can see the argument.

At the moment, Waddle is due just $17.2 million in 2026, $24 million in 2027 and $27.4 million in 2028. That's well below market for a 27-year-old receiver of his caliber, and it makes a big difference compared to other veteran trades where a team gives up a draft pick for the right to pay market price. I'm always hesitant about premier draft capital for veterans, but given the contract, the position and the limited contention window for Denver, I can see why they did this.

For the Dolphins, this is painful but makes sense. Miami has no shot of contending in 2026, and Waddle's value in the trade market would only go down over time -- both because he will get older and he'll get closer to the end of his contract. Miami's 2026 season is all about two things: developing quarterback Malik Willis and pushing team-building assets into the future. There's an argument that Waddle would help the former, which makes this somewhat surprising. But at this level of return, the trade was worth it. -- Walder

Chiefs land QB Fields from Jets

Chiefs get: QB Justin Fields
Jets get: 2027 sixth-round pick

Chiefs grade: C+
Jets grade: B+

Fields is heading to the Chiefs to serve as Patrick Mahomes' backup and, possibly, the team's Week 1 starter if Mahomes is not ready to return from his December ACL injury. The Jets owed Fields $10 million fully guaranteed (out of a $20 million salary) prior to the trade, and to facilitate the deal New York will pay $7 million. We'll work under the assumption that Fields is taking a pay cut to remove the remaining $10 million in nonguaranteed salary.

Fields is coming off a disappointing 2025 campaign in which he was handed a chance to show if he was a viable starter. In nine starts, Fields managed just a 38.7 QBR, which would have ranked fourth worst had he qualified. Granted, he was in a bad situation on a bad team, but it was hardly an inspiring year.

His one positive from 2025 was ball security, posting a 1.2% turnover rate that was among the best QBs. But that doesn't come close to making up for the rest of his metrics. Compared to QBR qualifiers, Fields finished in the fourth percentile in yards per dropback, seventh percentile in yards per attempt, 25th percentile in completion percentage over expected, fourth percentile in sack rate, and he threw under 10 air yards on 77% of his pass attempts. Fields' 11.2% scramble rate was higher than all qualifying quarterbacks, but his efficiency on those scrambles (0.19 EPA per play) ranked in the 11th percentile.

You don't need advanced stats to see that the Jets didn't believe in Fields' ability to throw. In three of his nine appearances, Fields attempted just 12 passes or fewer (including a halftime benching). In four of his nine games, he threw for under 60 passing yards. The Jets benched Fields for good on Nov. 17, and then knee soreness eventually landed him on injured reserve to end the season.

Fields shouldn't be judged only on 2025, of course. But he has a decently long track record that doesn't inspire confidence. He was below average (or worse) in QBR in 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. The lone exception was his second season with the Bears in 2022, when he finished 15th in QBR (56.3). Considering what happened with Sam Darnold we can never rule out a midcareer resurgence for Fields, but it certainly doesn't look likely.

The Chiefs now have a couple questions. Is Fields the right person to handle the pre-Mahomes part of the 2026 season? And if not, did they need to make this trade? It's possible the answer to both is no, but the Chiefs needed a cheap, temporary solution at quarterback. There were arguably better options, most specifically Marcus Mariota, who re-signed with the Commanders on a one-year, $7 million deal. Jacoby Brissett could have been an option after the Cardinals signed Gardner Minshew. Kirk Cousins is also available, though he may have demanded too much money.

Now, let's look at this from the Jets' side. Would they have found a trade partner if the Chiefs didn't step up? It's possible. But if not, they would have almost certainly released Fields and not received any draft compensation. In that scenario, the Chiefs -- with coach Andy Reid and the potential of early-season starts -- surely would have been a very attractive destination for Fields on the veteran minimum. -- Walder

Panthers sign OT Rasheed Walker

Terms: One year, up to $10 million

Grade: A

The price of this deal might be the most shocking of free agency thus far. Walker was widely considered the best free agent tackle this year and was expected to receive a large contract. But his market developed very slowly, so he has signed a one-year deal with a maximum value of $10 million -- meaning the base value is below that -- per NFL Network. For context, my free agency contract model projected a deal averaging $21.8 million annually for Walker. Instead, it's a short-term commitment for less than half that.

And the Panthers are the beneficiaries.

Carolina entered this offseason with a possible need at left tackle after Ikem Ekwonu suffered a patellar tendon rupture in the playoffs that put his 2026 season in question. It's also the last year of his contract. The Panthers signed Stone Forsythe as an insurance plan already in free agency, but once Walker's market fell it seemed like they felt adding him was well worth it, too.

Our win rate metrics consider Walker to be a solid player. Last season in Green Bay, he was in the 85th percentile among tackles in pass block win rate, though only 22nd percentile in run block win rate. He was in the 69th percentile and 48th percentile in those two metrics, respectively, in 2024.

Given that Dan Moore Jr. received $20.5 million per year from the Titans last year, most -- myself included -- thought Walker would walk away with more than that. Perhaps the struggles of Moore (who wasn't great last season) contributed to Walker's market being cooler than expected, a theory that ESPN's Jeremy Fowler suggested. Walker was also arrested two months ago at LaGuardia Airport in New York for allegedly trying to check in with a firearm that he had a license for in Wisconsin but not New York. Either way, teams felt differently about Walker than most on the outside thought.

But he's a heck of an addition for the Panthers on these terms. Although his run-game contributions might be far from perfect, a weak pass protector at tackle can sink a passing game. Even if this is only a one-year arrangement, Walker should be able to help keep Bryce Young upright. -- Walder

Vikings sign QB Kyler Murray

Terms: One year, $1.3 million

Grade: A

The Vikings pulled off an absolute coup at the game's most important position.

After J.J. McCarthy delivered only 10 games of subpar play last season with a 35.6 QBR (which would have ranked 27th had he played enough to qualify) after a rookie season lost to injury, the Vikings decided to bring in another quarterback. In all likelihood, they just signed their 2026 starter.

Because Murray had $36.8 million fully guaranteed from his contract with the Cardinals, the Vikings can sign him for only $1.3 million, with Arizona picking up the rest of the tab. And on paper, Minnesota just got a huge upgrade at quarterback for the veteran minimum.

Murray is certainly at a low point in his career. A foot injury in Week 5 last season knocked him out of action and resulted in a trip to injured reserve in early November. Once he was eligible to return, the team announced Murray would not play the rest of the year.

Murray played poorly relative to the previous six seasons of his career in those five games, with a 47.2 QBR and a minus-1% completion percentage over expected. His air yards per attempt were down (from 6.7 to 5.8), but there were also some circumstances that raised the difficulty level. The Cardinals had the second-lowest success rate on designed runs in games that Murray played. That likely contributed to Murray facing light boxes 79% of the time (a high rate), and his play-action rate was down from 29% in 2024 to 20%.

But it was just five games! And Murray delivered the ninth-best QBR in the league (63.5) with a plus-2% completion percentage over expected (seventh best) and 4.9% sack rate (seventh best) the season before.

Murray's peak came in 2021, when he had a 63.2 QBR (seventh best that season), a plus-3% completion percentage over expected (third best), a 13% off-target rate (third best), 7.9 yards per attempt (fourth best) and 8% of his plays went for 2 or more EPA (second best) as he threw almost 15% of his passes 20-plus air yards downfield (third most).

There's going to be a lot of talk about reclamation projects connected to the Vikings in the wake of the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl with Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones' resurgence last season in Indianapolis. But Murray's peak was substantially higher than those two before they arrived in Minnesota. By comparison, helping Murray should feel like easy mode for Kevin O'Connell.

This is not just about rehabbing Murray's image and shipping him off a year from now for some draft picks. If it breaks right, Murray can help the Vikings be a playoff threat now. I'm not sure how good I'd call the Vikings roster these days -- especially if they trade Jonathan Greenard -- but I'm not going to doubt Minnesota's coaches. Both O'Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores have shown an ability to give their team a schematic advantage and elevate their units over the sum of their parts.

And if Murray can find his form? Then he's throwing to one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson. Between Murray, Jefferson, Jordan Addison and O'Connell, I'm pretty confident they'll be able to cook up some big plays in the passing game.

The value here is enormous. Had Murray been a true free agent with guaranteed money, what would he have made? I've always been a little higher on him than most, but I think Murray would have commanded something not far from the $36.8 million he actually was guaranteed by the Cardinals. Perhaps $30 million? So the surplus value Minnesota is getting is huge.

While the Vikings are lucky he had this guaranteed money with offsets, it's not sheer luck that he is wearing purple. Because money was not a factor, Murray had his pick of teams since no one could really offer him more financially. And O'Connell's record of quarterback development speaks for itself.

I also think Minnesota deserves credit for being open to at least the possibility of moving on from McCarthy this quickly by bringing in such a strong competitor. I don't think every organization would do that, but viewing McCarthy as a potentially sunk cost is the right way for the team to maximize its chances of finding its next quarterback. And yes, there could be a quarterback competition, so we can't rule out McCarthy just yet.

But for now, it looks like the Vikings have at least one strong starting quarterback in Murray. -- Walder

Bengals sign DT Jonathan Allen

Terms: Two years, $26 million

Grade: D

A year ago, I handed the Vikings a D+ for signing Allen to an expensive contract shortly after he had been cut by the Commanders, a deal that called for him to make $16.2 million in 2025 and fully guaranteed $8 million of his $17 million in cash due in 2026. Now this year, the Vikings cut Allen after a lackluster first season in Minnesota, and the Bengals are going to pick up some of the tab and then some.

Allen's numbers last season were not great: 3.5 sacks, a 32nd percentile pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (despite being double-teamed at a lower-than-average rate) and a 24th percentile run stop win rate.

There have been criticisms levied that Brian Flores' system does not lend itself to pass-rushing production from defensive tackles, and it's possible that hurt Allen's numbers. But that would not explain Allen's lack of production (three sacks, 13th percentile pass rush win rate) in eight games in 2024 for the Commanders.

Allen was a very good defensive tackle earlier in his career. But the numbers clearly paint a picture of a 31-year-old player who is well into his decline. And I think the Bengals are overpaying him based on what he did several years ago.

Cincinnati needs to improve its defense, and I understand wanting more pass rush from its interior. B.J. Hill, T.J. Slaton and Kris Jenkins Jr. all had below-average pass rush win rates for a defensive tackle last season. But this is too much to pay for what will likely be too little.

There's another wrinkle here that affects Allen's old team. Though the Vikings had guaranteed $8 million of Allen's 2026 money, the defensive tackle had offset language in that deal. Which means that the Vikings could receive a cap credit at the end of the season for whatever the Bengals pay Allen in 2026. While we don't know the structure of the deal yet, that could be a nice break for Minnesota. -- Walder

Packers to sign DT Javon Hargrave

Terms: Two years, $23 million

Grade: B-

A veteran defensive tackle is staying in the NFC North. The Packers brought in Hargrave on Wednesday, hours after he was released by the Vikings. Green Bay needed help at defensive tackle, especially after dealing Colby Wooden for Zaire Franklin this past weekend.

Hargrave is 33 but still an effective pass rusher. Though he had only 3.5 sacks in 16 games last season in Minnesota, he put up a pass rush win rate in the 88th percentile for a defensive tackle, albeit against a lower-than-average double-team rate. His run stop win rate ranked in the 22nd percentile for an interior lineman. It was a solid bounce back for Hargrave after a partially torn triceps limited him to three games in 2024 with the 49ers. He can align as a three-technique or a nose tackle.

His arrival serves as a reunion with new Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, who was Hargrave's defensive coordinator in Philadelphia in 2021 and 2022. Hargrave amassed 18.5 combined sacks those two seasons and had a 96th percentile pass rush win rate.

We don't yet know the structure of the contract, but let's assume that the $13 million Hargrave is getting in Year 1 of this two-year deal is all that's guaranteed. It feels high for a player of Hargrave's age, but there's a defensive tackle tax that teams effectively have to pay this year because of the lack of quality at the position in free agency. Defensive tackle-needy teams have been forced to pay up a little bit, which is the position the Packers were in. -- Walder

49ers trade with Cowboys for DT Odighizuwa

49ers receive: DT Osa Odighizuwa
Cowboys receive: 2026 third-round pick

49ers grade: B
Cowboys grade: C+

When the 49ers struck out with the top free agent defensive tackle in a weak free agent year at the position, they turned to the trade option. And they landed a good player in Odighizuwa.

Though he had only 3.5 sacks last season with the Cowboys, Odighizuwa recorded a pass rush win rate in the 84th percentile at defensive tackle and a pressure rate in the 66th percentile. That has been a pattern for Odighizuwa, who will turn 28 in August. Despite never exceeding 4.5 sacks in a season, he has constantly been disruptive. In 2024, he was in the 76th and 85th percentile in pass rush win rate and pressure rate at DT, respectively.

His run-stopping metrics have not been as strong, but run stop win rate liked him last season. Odighizuwa's run stop rate -- the percentage of runs that resulted in him making a positive EPA tackle for the defense -- was roughly league average, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

The 49ers really needed to add talent to a defensive tackle group that had 2025 draft selections Alfred Collins and C.J. West at the top of the depth chart before the trade. Odighizuwa should be able to produce right away playing alongside Nick Bosa on a good team.

His contract will cost $16.75 million in cash in 2026, per OverTheCap.com, and is on the books for (non-guaranteed) $20.5 million in each of the following two years. I think Odighizuwa would command more than that $16.75 million if he were a free agent. And I think consideration has to be given that finding a defensive tackle is particularly hard this year -- my colleague Ben Solak ranked defensive tackle as the second-thinnest position available this offseason. So I would have made this trade if I were San Francisco.

And while they might have initially wanted John Franklin-Myers and would have loved to keep all of their picks, they don't have to guarantee any money to Odighizuwa beyond this year. They also leave open the possibility of getting a compensatory pick if receiver Jauan Jennings signs elsewhere that otherwise might have been canceled out with another free agent signing.

As for the Cowboys, there is something amusing about their quest to improve at defensive tackle. They used two massive trades -- the Micah Parsons deal that netted them Kenny Clark and the acquisition of Quinnen Williams at the deadline -- but are now opting to send away Odighizuwa, a good player and the youngest of the three.

I would actually argue that they are trading the wrong player. Odighizuwa is three years younger than Clark and outperformed him in both win rates and run stop rate last season. Last season, Odighizuwa's pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranked well ahead of Clark's (62nd percentile). His pressure rate was higher, too, and Clark was well below average at run stop rate. And Clark costs almost $5 million more this year.

Granted, those discrepancies would have affected the return, but in a vacuum I would want to keep Odighizuwa as the player next to Williams. -- Walder

Bills sign Edge Bradley Chubb

Terms: Three years, $43.5 million

Grade: C-

The Bills entered the offseason needing an edge rusher opposite Greg Rousseau. With the top edge rushers in free agency off the board, they opted for Chubb, a veteran from their own division.

Chubb, who will turn 30 this summer, recorded 8.5 sacks for the Dolphins in 2025 after sitting out 2024 because of a torn ACL suffered late in the 2023 season. That sounds pretty solid, but the advanced metrics don't paint nearly as strong a picture.

Chubb's pass rush win rate at edge was just 7.6% -- 14th percentile for the position. That's a dramatic drop from where he was before his ACL tear -- his number in the same category in 2023 was 21.4%.

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Stephen A.: Jaylen Waddle a huge pickup for Broncos

Stephen A. Smith reacts to the Broncos trading for Jaylen Waddle and reflects on the Bills' failed pursuit of the wide receiver.

I understand the Bills need pass rush help, but this is a lot to pay for a player hitting 30 with two past ACL tears and who had a big falloff in his numbers after the latest injury.

The Bills are cap-strapped and have to be efficient with their resources. And this is anything but. And the deal looks rough by comparison to some of the other contracts handed out in the past few days. I would rather have Malcolm Koonce or Arden Key, for example, who each signed shorter and cheaper deals. Or Jadeveon Clowney, who is still a free agent. Or, if they wanted to pay a little more, then Boye Mafe would have been a vastly better option.

Instead, Buffalo -- as it tries to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the early 1990s -- is paying a lot to find out if Chubb can bounce back. -- Walder

Bears sign S Coby Bryant

Terms: Three years, $40 million

Grade: B

With both of last season's safeties free agents, the Bears needed to bring in new talent at the back end of their defense. They opted for Bryant from the Super Bowl champs.

Bryant played a pure deep safety role in Seattle, lining up at safety 94% of the time -- third most among all safeties, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His on-ball production was strong, with four interceptions, seven passes defensed, a minus-12% completion percentage over expected allowed and 0.5 yards allowed per coverage snap (better than average).

Safety play is about a lot more than on-ball production, though. But at the same time, those critical non-targeted plays are the toughest to evaluate. And Bryant being part of an elite Seattle defense can cut both ways. Perhaps he benefited from an elite group and scheme around him. Or perhaps the defense being so well-organized was partially a testament to him. It is hard to know.

But I do think the fact that opponents' average air yards per attempt was 6.3 -- lowest in the NFL -- is at least partially a reflection of strong safety play.

At $13.3 million per year, Bryant is between Bryan Cook and Kam Curl in terms of APY. Given his level of play, that's the right ballpark. -- Walder

Chiefs re-sign TE Travis Kelce

Terms: One year, $12 million

Grade: B

Once Kelce decided to play football in 2026, there was little doubt that he would remain in Kansas City. He is in the discussion for greatest tight end of all time, but he is not that player anymore. He's more lumbering and doesn't get open quite as easily. But even if he's not the same receiving threat he once was, he can still be a useful part of the Chiefs' offense.

Last season, even with everything going wrong for the Chiefs, Kelce recorded 851 receiving yards -- third most by a tight end -- on 76 receptions. He ran a route on 75% of Chiefs dropbacks, and his 1.7 yards per route run ranked in the 66th percentile at the position. And he recorded a 51 overall score in ESPN's receiver scores -- a drop-off from where he was a few seasons ago but indication that he's still plenty capable of producing (and actually an improvement from 2024).

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McAfee: Andy Reid can get the most out of Justin Fields

Pat McAfee is a fan of the Chiefs' trade for QB Justin Fields.

And his chemistry with Patrick Mahomes, who is returning from a torn ACL suffered in December, is undeniable and valuable. The duo are famous for working well together off-script.

Given all that, paying him $12 million for one season seems fine. That's less per year than Isaiah Likely will be making for the Giants. And while Likely is more than a decade younger, he also has never even come close to producing at the level Kelce did last season, let alone at his peak.

Even if the Chiefs limit his regular-season playing time more in hopes of keeping him fresh for the playoffs (though we know that's no guarantee!) he could still be a high-leverage receiver in the postseason. -- Walder

Commanders sign Edge K'Lavon Chaisson

Terms: One year, $11 million

Grade: B+

Two days after signing Odafe Oweh to a big-money contract, the Commanders have agreed to terms with a second edge rusher at a much more moderate price.

After managing only 10 total sacks over the first five seasons of his career, Chaisson broke out with 7.5 sacks last season with the Patriots. His pass rush win rate at edge was in the 61st percentile, while his pressure rate was a bit lower (39th percentile). He doesn't offer that much in the run game, so the Commanders are betting that his 2025 pass-rush performance continues.

They're making that bet at a reasonable price, as Chaisson got a smaller contract than I was expecting. In Washington, he'll join not only Oweh but also Dorance Armstrong, who tore his ACL last October, and Deatrich Wise Jr., who missed almost all of 2025 with a quadriceps injury.

Chaisson isn't a game wrecker, but he had an affordable contract. Instead of bringing back Chaisson, the Patriots opted to sign Dre'Mont Jones to a three-year, $39.5 million deal (with $23.1 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com). Washington got the better deal. -- Walder

Texans sign OT Braden Smith

Terms: Two years, $25 million with $13.5 million fully guaranteed

Grade: A

A little over a week after agreeing to trade Tytus Howard to the Browns, the Texans have found their right tackle replacement. In terms of value, the swap is a coup for Houston.

In 13 games last season, Smith recorded a pass block win rate in the 51st percentile and run block win rate in the 45th percentile. Both numbers are better than what the Texans got out of Howard.

Smith's numbers in 2024 were much worse, but he was dealing with a serious mental health matter that caused him to miss the final five games of that season.

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Dan Orlovsky praises Bills signing Bradley Chubb

Dan Orlovsky breaks down the Bills' three-year contract with Bradley Chubb.

From 2018 to '23, Smith started 80 games and recorded pass block win rate and run block win rates in the 56th and 65th percentile in that span, respectively. Injuries limited him to 10 games in 2023 and he had offseason knee surgery after that season.

At $12.5 million per year in 2026 and essentially just one guaranteed year for a solid right tackle, Smith's deal looks like a bargain. And if we consider this deal in conjunction with the Howard trade? Then it looks even better. The Texans got the better player at a cheaper price and gained a fifth-round pick. -- Walder

Colts re-sign QB Daniel Jones

Terms: Two years, $88 million, with $50 million fully guaranteed

Grade: B

Jones' time in New York ended in a mess for the Giants because the team opted not to give him the franchise tag in the 2023 offseason, instead guaranteeing him $81 million. And I was worried that the Colts might make the same mistake. They fared better, though.

Like three years ago, Jones is coming off a season in which he played well. Like then, there are still questions about what his true ability is and now increased concerns about his injury risk.

The Colts opted to place a transition tag on Jones that would have paid him $37.8 million if he wasn't signed by another team and played on it. The trickier part of the equation is that Jones is coming off an Achilles tear which could affect his availability -- and/or his play -- in 2026. So for the Colts to bring him back, it makes sense they would want to control his rights in 2027, too. That's true, even though ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Wednesday that Jones is now expected to be ready for the start of the regular season.

But the Colts did much better than the Giants when it came to guarantees. We don't know the exact structure of the deal yet, but with $50 million fully guaranteed, the Colts seemed to turn a one-year, $38 million transition tag contract into what can either be a one-year, $50 million deal or a two-year, $88 million deal -- and the choice is theirs. Once they had decided to go the transition tag route (I'm not sure they had to), then that's a trade-off worth making. The grade above is a reflection of their decision to sign this deal given that they had already placed the tag on him.

Had Jones insisted on a higher level of guarantee, Indianapolis would have been advised to limit the downside and have him play on the transition tag. But this is a middle ground that works for all parties. Jones gets a little more money locked in, and the Colts will have a quarterback at a reasonable price for two seasons if he can recover from his Achilles injury and get back to his 2025 level of play.

That last part is no certainty.

Jones had a great season with the Colts. In 13 games he recorded a QBR of 63.0 (eighth best) and a completion percentage over expected of plus-3% (sixth best). In a change from the past, he was also able to limit his sacks taken with a 5.2% sack rate (11th lowest).

But he was also supported by a great running game. The Colts ranked first in EPA per designed rush and relied heavily on play-action (35% play-action rate, second highest). And fumbling remained an issue for Jones, with a 1.7% fumble rate (second highest among quarterbacks) that is on par with his career average.

And we can't throw out Jones' past play, either. Over 16 starts in 2023 and 2024 with the Giants, Jones had a QBR of only 42.1. Part of the value Jones brings is with his legs, too, and it's fair to wonder how much that will be diminished after the Achilles injury.

But it's worth it for the Colts to want to see what they can get again out of Jones after how well he played for most of last season. I just wouldn't want to pay too much in guarantees to find out. And it looks like they didn't. -- Walder

Ravens signing Edge Trey Hendrickson

Terms: Four years, $112 million with $60 million fully guaranteed

Grade: B-

What a coincidence! Roughly 13 hours after the Raiders announced that the Ravens had pulled the plug on their blockbuster Maxx Crosby trade, Baltimore agreed to terms with the best free agent pass rusher out there. The grade above is reflective of an evaluation of this signing on its own, and that's how I'm going to analyze it. But before we do that, I think it's worth talking about the decision to go this route relative to the Crosby trade. And for that, the Ravens would earn an "A" grade.

Hendrickson is not as good a player as Crosby. He's older and isn't anywhere close to the once-again Raider against the run -- but he also doesn't require spending two first-round picks while commanding roughly the same financial compensation. That is a world of difference and makes this acquisition so, so, so much better. Baltimore can sign Hendrickson today, have him contribute to its title chances now and have first-round picks this year and next year which can help in both the short and long term.

Now let's remove Crosby from the equation and focus just on this signing and Hendrickson himself. He has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL in recent seasons. He recorded back-to-back 17.5-sack seasons in 2023 and 2024. And those sacks were backed up by down-to-down production, too. He ranked fourth in pass rush win rate (22.5%) in the NFL across those two years, behind only Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett and Will Anderson Jr. In 2025, Hendrickson was limited to just seven games after requiring a procedure to repair a core muscle injury. In the games he played, he recorded 4.0 sacks, but his pass rush win rate was still strong at 19.8% (would have ranked sixth among all players had he qualified). He is a pure pass rusher only and does not deliver much against the run.

For Baltimore, he fills a need it was clearly intent on resolving with a star, given the team's pursuit of both Crosby and him. Kyle Van Noy, Dre'Mont Jones and David Ojabo are all free agents (Jones has agreed to terms with the Patriots), which left Mike Green and Tavius Robinson at the top of Baltimore's edge rush depth chart heading into the offseason. Clearly, the Ravens had to add someone.

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Pat McAfee: It felt like Travis Kelce was going to come back

Pat McAfee reacts to Travis Kelce's decision to return to the Chiefs.

Though not nearly on the same level as the Crosby trade, this is somewhat uncharacteristic for Baltimore, too. Yes, the Ravens have signed veteran edge rushers before, but it's a bit of a surprise to see them do it at the top of the free agent market at this position. Perhaps new head coach Jesse Minter felt it was important to have one real-deal pass rusher for his defense.

Is Hendrickson worth what the Ravens paid? It's really the $60 million fully guaranteed that gives me pause. At $28 million per year, Hendrickson actually isn't at the top of the market in terms of APY, considering Parsons signed a $46.5 million-per-year deal in 2025 (nor would we expect him to be, given that he is 31 years old and coming off an injury-shortened season). But via the guarantees, the Ravens are signing up for his age-31 and age-32 seasons, and it wouldn't be that shocking if that looks unideal 12 months from now.

There is also some draft pick cost here, even though this isn't a trade. According to OverTheCap's projections, this contract would wipe out the third-round compensatory pick the Ravens were slated to receive for losing Tyler Linderbaum. At the moment, that means they would be in line to receive a seventh-round pick instead (though this could change when more of their free agents sign elsewhere or when/if they sign more free agents). That pales in comparison to the draft capital cost of the Crosby deal, but it is something and is worth factoring in.

So there is absolutely risk here, given the late stage of Hendrickson's career and the guaranteed money. But after missing out on the early part of free agency, the next-best free agent pass rusher at this stage is probably Jadeveon Clowney. The Ravens certainly did have to add the position; the combination of Robinson and Green at the top of the depth chart was awfully weak. The Ravens have Lamar Jackson in his prime, they want a title, and they're trying to maximize their chances. Adding Crosby would have helped those chances in 2026 but hurt them in future seasons when they will still have Jackson. Hendrickson accomplishes the former without the same level of risk to the latter.

One thing I am confident in: The Ravens are better off today than they were yesterday. -- Walder

Giants signing LB Tremaine Edmunds

Terms: Three years, $36 million

Grade: C

A few days ago, the Bears released Edmunds rather than paying him the $15 million he would have made in 2026. Instead, he's getting a new multiyear contract from the Giants -- at a per-year rate not all that much lower.

I'll add a caveat to this by saying linebackers are hard to quantify, but Edmunds' tackle rate against the run was only in the 32nd percentile among off-ball linebackers last season, while his run stop win rate was in the 34th percentile. He did have four interceptions last season, but he also allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap (higher than average).

Looking at free agency rankings, opinions are split on Edmunds. But considering the top linebacker, Devin Lloyd, is getting $15 million per year and Devin Bush -- who is signing with the Bears -- is getting only $10 million per year, the $12 million Edmunds is receiving seems a little rich. -- Walder

Raiders signing LB Quay Walker

Terms: Three years, $40.5 million

Grade: C+

Las Vegas' big spending Monday included deals to acquire not one, but two linebackers -- Nakobe Dean and Walker. The latter was slightly better regarded and slightly more expensive.

The numbers don't necessarily agree, though. Over the past two seasons, Walker recorded a run stop win rate that ranked in the 31st percentile for off-ball linebackers. His 19.1% tackle rate was slightly above average, however. Those two numbers can work in tandem because Walker had only a 6.9% missed tackle rate in that span, much better than the 11.8% average, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Walker has been effective as a blitzer, with an 81st percentile pass rush win rate among off-ball linebackers over the past two seasons. Coverage numbers for linebackers are noisy, but Walker's 1.0 yards allowed per coverage snap is slightly higher than average and he has allowed positive EPA in every season in his career, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Ultimately, though, this is real money for a linebacker who has played a lot but been just OK through his rookie contract -- as evidenced by the Packers turning down his fifth-year option a year ago. If I were the Raiders, I probably would have thought about spending this money elsewhere. -- Walder

Browns signing OL Elgton Jenkins

Terms: Two years, up to $24 million

Grade: A

The Browns entered this offseason needing starters at all five offensive line positions. So it makes sense they ended up with the ultimate position-less offensive lineman in Jenkins, who has significant experience at center, guard and tackle.

Jenkins had been in line to make $20 million from the Packers in 2026, per OverTheCap.com, so Green Bay cut him. That worked out to the benefit of the Browns, who are scooping him up.

Jenkins played last season at center and had middling results, ranking in the 47th and 57th percentiles in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively, before a fractured ankle on Nov. 10 ended his season. It was roughly a similar story for him -- in terms of win rates -- at guard the previous year.

But Jenkins has had seasons when he has ascended to a higher level of play. In 2023, his pass block win rate at guard reached the 89th percentile. In 2022, it was in the 73rd percentile, while his run block win rate reached the 87th percentile in a season in which he split time between guard and tackle and reached the Pro Bowl. And in 2021, Jenkins recorded strong numbers at tackle (84th and 88th percentiles in PBWR and RBWR).

If Jenkins, 30, can get back to his level of play from a few years ago, he will be a steal for Cleveland. At this point it's unclear where Jenkins will play, and it's possible the Browns might not even know yet. He's probably best at guard, but the Browns might need him at center because all the top free agent centers have already agreed to deals.

We don't know the exact terms, but we'll work under the assumption that the base value is a couple of million per year under the maximum $12 million per year. If Jenkins ends up an average guard or center, he will be worth it and a much better deal than his new teammate Zion Johnson (at $16.5 million per year). But Jenkins has upside for more, and that's what makes this such a strong contract for Cleveland. -- Walder

Patriots signing G Alijah Vera-Tucker

Terms: Three years, $42 million

Grade: C

The Patriots had a need on their offensive line and opted to sign a rival's departing free agent to fill it. Vera-Tucker is heading from the Jets to the Patriots after a triceps tear in practice caused him to miss his final season in New York. The Patriots gain a guard with real upside but also one with a strong injury risk.

Vera-Tucker has widely been considered a very good guard when he's on the field. However, his metrics have never lived up to that reputation. From 2021 to 2024, Vera-Tucker has ranked in the 36th percentile in pass block win rate and only the 3rd percentile in run block win rate. That is not great.

And he certainly carries risk, given his injury history. He has played only 43 out of a possible 85 games in his five-year career, with three major injuries -- a torn Achilles and tearing his triceps in both arms.

At $14 million per year, Vera-Tucker comes in a couple of million per year cheaper than Zion Johnson and David Edwards, and a couple of million more expensive per year than Isaac Seumalo.

Vera-Tucker has played both left and right guard with the Jets, though he most recently played on the right side. Because Mike Onwenu played exclusively at right guard last season, my guess would be that Vera-Tucker will play left guard in New England. But he also has experience playing tackle, and that flexibility could be particularly useful if New England decides it wants to move Will Campbell from left tackle at some point. -- Walder

Eagles signing CB Riq Woolen

Terms: One year, up to $15 million

Grade: A

The Eagles spent much of last season trying to find a solution at their second outside corner spot. They've found their answer for 2026.

With the market seemingly cooler on Woolen than expected (at least, that's what I'm assuming based on this contract), the Eagles were there to strike with a one-year deal.

Woolen is fascinating because he is not widely considered to be among the game's top cornerbacks, but his numbers are right there with the best. Over the past four seasons, among outside corners with at least 500 coverage snaps, do you know who allowed the fewest yards per coverage snap? Woolen, at 0.7, one spot ahead of new teammate Quinyon Mitchell and two spots ahead of 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II.

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Schefter: Houston fortifying its O-line with Braden Smith

Adam Schefter reports that OT Braden Smith will join the Texans on a two-year, $25 million deal.

And yet Woolen has been benched multiple times and shared work with Josh Jobe at times last season. Woolen has moments where it goes wrong -- such as in Week 1, when he was beaten badly by Ricky Pearsall for a 45-yard gain on the 49ers' final drive before allowing the game-winning touchdown, or when he committed an almost-cataclysmic taunting penalty in the NFC Championship Game ahead of what would have been a fourth-and-12. To that last point, Woolen's penalty rate is high (0.8% over his career, which ranks in the 80th percentile) but not disqualifying.

Ultimately, it's hard to argue against Woolen's results. Over a single season, there can be reasons a corner puts up a strong yards per coverage snap result even without playing well. For example, if they play opposite an awful corner on the other side, if their team has a good pass rush or, as with Seattle last season, the unit is incredible overall. But that has certainly not been true for Woolen for his entire time in Seattle.

The Eagles will have a formidable set of corners with Mitchell and Woolen outside and Cooper DeJean in the slot. Good luck, opposing receivers.

This deal is great for the Eagles because it fills a key need, but also because of the price. Woolen was widely viewed as being among the best outside corners in the class alongside players such as Jaylen Watson (who is getting a three-year deal at $17 million per year) and Alontae Taylor (three years at $60 million).

We don't know the final terms here, but I'm working under the assumption this contract's base value is a few million short of the $15 million maximum value. And no matter what the base value is, the fact that it's a one-year contract minimizes any risk. But Woolen could make a huge impact for the Eagles in 2026. -- Walder

Steelers trade for WR Pittman

Steelers receive: WR Michael Pittman Jr., 2026 seventh-round pick
Colts receive: 2026 sixth-round pick

Steelers grade: C
Colts grade: B

For the second straight offseason, the Steelers added a wide receiver via trade. Last year, it was DK Metcalf. This time, it's Pittman in a late-round draft pick swap with the Colts.

The Steelers are giving Pittman a new three-year, $59 million contract, per NFL Network. Because the trade compensation is so small, we can evaluate this as basically being a free agent deal at that price.

Pittman, 28, fits with the Steelers because he runs short routes, averaging only 8.1 air yards per target. And quarterback Aaron Rodgers -- who is a free agent but seems likely to be back in Pittsburgh again -- does pretty much one thing in the late stage of his career: throw short. Seventy-six percent of Rodgers' pass attempts went under 10 air yards last season, the highest rate in the league.

Pittman recorded his best season in 2023, grabbing 109 receptions for 1,152 receiving yards and 2.2 yards per route run. But he hasn't been able to match that since, with his yards per route run dropping to 1.8 in 2024 and 1.6 in 2025 (just 1.2 vs. man coverage). He totaled 784 receiving yards last season on 80 receptions.

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Louis Riddick applauds Eagles signing Riq Woolen

Louis Riddick breaks down the Eagles' signing of CB Riq Woolen.

His player-tracking based metrics in ESPN's receiver scores tell a similar story. This was most noticeable in his open score, which hit a career-high 67 in 2023 but fell to 53 in 2024 and 49 in 2025.

My biggest issue with this move is wondering why the Steelers didn't go after Wan'Dale Robinson instead. Robinson is three years younger and a better player at this point. Robinson cost $19.5 million per year -- almost exactly the same amount that Pittman does after his new deal.

Why did the Colts make this trade? Pittman was slated to make $24 million in 2026, and I imagine they didn't think he was worth that -- especially considering they're giving Alec Pierce a bump to $29 million per year to bring him back. I don't think it would have been unreasonable for them to cut Pittman, so getting just a six-seven flip is perfectly fine. -- Walder

Falcons to sign QB Tua Tagovailoa

Terms: One year, veteran minimum

Grade: B+

Because of the offset in Tagovailoa's contract, there is no incentive for either him or his new team to go above the veteran minimum. Therefore, the Falcons will land him very cheaply.

I can't say I'm much of a believer in Tagovailoa at this point, but that's almost beside the point given the price and how much sense he makes for Atlanta's situation. With Michael Penix Jr. rehabbing from the torn ACL he suffered last November, the Falcons needed someone who could, at minimum, run the offense through the offseason and back up Penix in-season. At most, the new QB would likely start a few early-season games. And, ideally, not cost much.

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Why Rich Eisen likes Steelers trading for Michael Pittman Jr.

Rich Eisen reacts to the Colts trading Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers.

Tagovailoa fits the bill as a quarterback who has had success before, even if it was in a specific system with talented receivers around him. The former Dolphins quarterback is coming off a rough season in which he recorded a 37.5 QBR (third worst among qualifiers), a 3.5% interception rate (worst), a 1.7% fumble rate (third worst) and 5.9 yards per dropback (seventh worst). His stock has plummeted far enough that the Dolphins are cutting him even with $54 million of the $55 million in 2026 cash owed to him being guaranteed.

Even with all of that, Tagovailoa is a logical choice for Atlanta, and the Falcons are a logical choice for him. He's only 28 and two years ago ranked 10th in QBR. If he can find some of his former form again in Kevin Stefanski's offense, that will be good for Tagovailoa and the Falcons. If it goes really well, perhaps there's a path for him to be an NFL starter again. But at the very least, he should get practice time with a decent shot at seeing the field at some point.

Plus, he's also a lefty like Penix, which should make the transition between the two quarterbacks easier on the offense. -- Walder

Patriots signing WR Romeo Doubs

Terms: Four years, $68 million

Grade: B+

With Alec Pierce, Mike Evans, Wan'Dale Robinson and Rashid Shaheed having agreed to terms, time was running out on the Patriots to land a wide receiver -- a critical need for the defending AFC champions, especially after the release of Stefon Diggs.

That left Doubs as the best option. And the Patriots are getting him.

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2:07

Why acquiring Trey Hendrickson puts Ravens in a 'very strong place'

Domonique Foxworth, Dan Orlovsky and Mike Greenberg react to breaking news of the Ravens agreeing to terms with Trey Hendrickson.

Doubs is not a No. 1 receiver, but he is solid and probably a little underrated. He averaged 1.9 yards per route run last season, which ranked in the 64th percentile among wide receivers with at least 300 routes run. That was a career high, but he was at 1.8 the year prior.

He can get depth, averaging 12.7 air yards per target. In Green Bay, he ran post routes, go routes, medium crossers and deep outs more than most receivers.

ESPN's receiver scores are a relative fan. He has had three consecutive seasons with an open score and an overall score in the 60s. So he's consistently an above-average receiver, which is the best the Patriots could have hoped for in free agency at this point. And at $17 million per year, the price they're paying is reasonable -- especially relative to the remaining scarcity at the position. The price tag matches what Shaheed received from the Seahawks.

Signing Doubs should not mean the Patriots are done at the receiver position this offseason. But it's a good first move. -- Walder

Jets trade with Raiders for QB Smith

Jets get: QB Geno Smith, 2026 seventh-round pick
Raiders get: 2026 sixth-round pick

Jets grade: D
Raiders grade: B

Smith is heading back to the team that drafted him in the second round in 2013 and where he had a rocky start to his career. Now, after years spent as a backup, several seasons as the Seahawks' starter and a brief stint in Las Vegas, he's returning to be the Jets' starter again. Does it make sense? For the Jets, I don't see how.

The Jets are a team building for the future, with plenty of draft capital but no quarterback after an almost successful tank job in 2025 landed them the No. 2 pick in a one-quarterback draft.

They need to be focused on two things -- finding a franchise quarterback, and building the team for 2027 and beyond. But their strategy this offseason makes them look like a team with a lack of self-awareness. Or maybe, more realistically, a team with a head coach who knows he's on the hot seat.

Smith is 35 and coming off two rough seasons. After 2024, I (and the Raiders!) were prepared to write off his poor play that year (he ranked 21st in QBR) due to the lack of pass protection and how much of the Seahawks' offense was placed on his shoulders. But Smith was even worse in 2025 (to be fair, it was a terrible situation): 27th in QBR with a 34.1, better than only rookie Cam Ward among qualifiers.

Every other statistic from last season was just as bad. Yards per dropback? Second worst. Sack rate? Worst. Smith threw under 10 air yards at the second-highest rate (behind another ex-Jets quarterback, Aaron Rodgers) and yet somehow also managed the fourth-highest turnover rate.

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Orlovsky on Tua in Atlanta: This is the best decision for both parties

Dan Orlovsky and Domonique Foxworth discuss whether Tua Tagovailoa is a good fit for the Atlanta Falcons.

Despite all that, acquiring Smith for a late-round pick swap and paying him near the league minimum is fine, if not worthwhile, in a vacuum. That would make his contract a value as a backup quarterback. But ESPN's Rich Cimini said the plan is for Smith to be the starter, and that's where everything goes awry.

Because even if you believe there's a chance that Smith, at age 35 after two bad seasons, can turn his play around again, he doesn't really fit what the Jets need. There's no long-term upside here given his age and ceiling.

Playing time is a scarce resource. With no hope to win this season, the Jets could have used 2026 as an opportunity to take a chance on developing a player who can be a solution at quarterback. Those players existed. The most obvious option was Malik Willis, who has looked fantastic in a small sample with the Packers and agreed to terms Monday with the Jets' division rival Dolphins.

Kyler Murray, at the veteran minimum, could have been worthwhile because he is young enough that he could rehabilitate his career and provide value to the Jets as a long-term quarterback -- or net them draft capital through a trade or comp picks if he eventually went elsewhere. Even if the Jets couldn't land one of the free agents, there were other choices who could have been available via trade -- Spencer Rattler, Tanner McKee, Mac Jones. Putting those players in the lineup would be making the most of a bad situation.

Instead, they're rolling out Smith, sticking with the illogical strategy they employed Monday of signing late-career veterans (Demario Davis and David Onyemata) to a team without playoff aspirations.

As critical as I am of this move, it can still be salvaged. The Jets could draft an early-round quarterback or even trade for one of the aforementioned names and make Smith the backup. If that happens, I'll retract my critiques. But given what Cimini wrote (he also mentioned Carson Wentz as a backup option to Smith -- bleak), I'm not going to give the Jets the benefit of the doubt.

As hard as this era of the Jets has been, they have done some things right. The Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner trades were home runs. They more or less tried to tank their way into the No. 1 pick, as they should have. But handing 2026 over to a 35-year-old Smith off two bad seasons -- completely independent of his history with the team -- is a wasted opportunity. -- Walder

Colts signing Edge Arden Key

Terms: Two years, $20 million

Grade: B+

With Kwity Paye out the door in free agency, the Colts needed another edge rusher to play opposite Laiatu Latu. They got an upgrade at a lower cost.

Key, who spent the last three seasons in Tennessee, has long been underrated. Though he had only four sacks in 12 games last season, Key recorded an 85th percentile pass rush win rate at edge. It wasn't a unique performance -- he was in the 64th percentile in 2024 and 76th percentile the year prior.

Now, I think Key often utilizes the type of high and outside pass rush that can sometimes earn pass-rush wins even when tackle has the situation under control, which is part of the reason why his pressure rates have been much lower relative to his win rates in Tennessee. (The other is that losing teams force opponents into desperate passing situations far less often, which shouldn't be held against him.) But at this salary, I think Key is well worth bringing in and should be more disruptive than Paye, who ranked last in pass rush win rate last season. -- Walder

Bengals signing S Bryan Cook

Terms: Three years, $42.5 million

Grade: B

The Bengals added key players at both levels of their defense on Day 1 of free agency, trying to improve a unit that ranked 29th in EPA per play allowed.

Boye Mafe should help with the pass rush, and Cook should help on the back end. He was almost exclusively a deep safety with the Chiefs, playing there on 91% of snaps last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Safeties are one of the hardest positions to quantify, so I trust the eyes of my colleague Matt Bowen, a former safety himself, who ranked Cook as the top safety in this year's free agency class.

Fellow colleagues Ben Baby and Bill Barnwell noted that Cook is a huge tackling upgrade relative to departing free agent Geno Stone. Stone's 16.1% missed tackle rate was almost three times as high as Cook's 5.7%, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

There is always some risk of a defensive back's play dropping off after leaving Steve Spagnuolo's defense, but at a little over $14 million per year, I think the cost is reasonable. Last year, free agent safeties Tre'von Moehrig, Jevon Holland and Cam Bynum all received more than $16 million per year if we adjust their contracts for cap inflation to the 2026 environment. Cook looks favorable by comparison. -- Walder

Giants signing OT Jermaine Eluemunor

Terms: Three years, $39 million

Grade: B

The Giants are bringing back their right tackle at a higher compensation level. Eluemunor was a nice value on his old, $7 million contract. That number increases to $13 million on his new deal. Is he worth it?

Eluemunor has gone from underrated to overrated, as he is a serviceable tackle with well-below-average numbers. He ranked in the 30th percentile and 27th percentile in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively, last season. But you certainly can do worse than that and as the Giants enter Year 2 of the Jaxson Dart era, I don't think they should take a huge risk at one of their tackle spots.

And these decisions aren't made in a vacuum. We have to evaluate the Giants' choice to bring back Eluemunor against the alternatives.

One option could have been Braden Smith, who posted better numbers than Eluemunor last season (and has been way better in the past), but has availability questions after missing 16 games over the past three seasons. Jamaree Salyer showed promise at left tackle last season for the Chargers and would have a lower-priced contract, but he would have to move to the right side. And Jaguars left tackle Walker Little is a presumed trade candidate whose contract would cost $12 million in 2026 and $13 million (non-guaranteed) in 2027 but also would have to switch sides.

None of those are a slam dunk better option than Eluemunor, so I can understand the Giants wanting to keep consistency on the line. And while $13 million per year is a big bump, it's still not expensive for a starting tackle. -- Walder

Patriots signing Edge Dre'Mont Jones

Terms: Three years, $39.5 million

Grade: C

With K'Lavon Chaisson still a free agent, the Patriots were in the edge rusher market. And they filled their need with Jones, though I'm not so sure they truly upgraded.

Jones, 29, is coming off a season in which he recorded 7.0 sacks -- a career high -- between his time with the Titans and the Ravens. But his down-to-down metrics actually took a slight dip compared to where he was in previous seasons. He put up just a 22nd percentile pass rush win rate at edge in 2025 and a 25th percentile number in run stop win rate at edge. The latter number was higher than Chaisson but still nothing to write home about. Jones' pressure rate was slightly better, in the 53rd percentile.

But we also have a long history of Jones' play at this point. He has failed to surpass an 11% pass rush win rate at edge in each of the past four years, meaning he was below average in the category in all of those seasons. (Prior to 2024, he was more of a hybrid player who would split his time between the interior and outside.)

And at over $13 million per year, the contract is not trivial. I think Jones is probably a slightly worse option than Chaisson, and I'll be curious to see what the latter receives on a new deal. But if I were the Patriots, I would have spent the extra money to go get Boye Mafe. Another $7-8 million per year is not a small amount, but the difference in play could be large. -- Walder

Steelers signing CB Jamel Dean

Terms: Three years, $36.75 million

Grade: B+

In Dean, the Steelers picked up an experienced corner coming off a good season for a couple million less per year than I would have expected. His 2025 didn't start great, as he took a large pay cut to stay with Tampa Bay and was relegated to a rotation role with Benjamin Morrison early in the season. But ultimately, Dean put together a very nice year in which he allowed just 0.7 yards per coverage snap -- seventh-best among outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps.

When I sought feedback for my 100-player MVP ballot, what I heard wasn't as strong as the stats suggested -- and with the more limited playing time, he didn't make the list. But I thought he might make a little more than the $12.25 million average he secured from the Steelers. In Pittsburgh, he'll play opposite Joey Porter Jr. -- Walder

Cardinals signing G Isaac Seumalo

Terms: Three years, $31.5 million

Grade: A

The Cardinals signed a win rate star at a value price. Seumalo recorded pass block win rate and run block win rates in the 98th and 95th percentiles at his position, respectively, last season as a Steeler. And it was not a unique year. In 2024, he was in the 89th percentile and 90th percentile in the two metrics, and was in the top quartile in 2023, too.

Now, I will say that when I called around for thoughts on my top 100 MVP list this year, the feedback I got on Seumalo was not as strong as the numbers indicated. Part of that was due to missed time; Seumalo missed three games with pectoral and triceps injuries, and he missed four games with a pectoral injury at the start of the 2024 season. He's also 32 years old, though I do think offensive linemen can often be a market inefficiency. They tend to still play well at this age, but teams are more hesitant to pay them.

Assuming he sticks at left guard, Seumalo would be a huge upgrade over Evan Brown, who ranked in the third percentile in run block win rate last season. Ultimately, it's hard to ignore the consistently strong metrics, and the deal is exceptional. This entire free agent guard class has been much more reasonably priced than last year's group, and even still, Seumalo's $10.5 million per year is coming in far better than Zion Johnson ($16.5 million), David Edwards ($15.25 million) or Alijah Vera-Tucker ($14 million). The Cardinals have plenty of cap room, and this is an efficient use of it. -- Walder

Raiders signing LB Nakobe Dean

Terms: Three years, $36 million

Grade: B

Dean returned from a knee injury suffered in the 2024 playoffs to play in 11 games last season, playoffs included. His blitzing numbers are excellent. Over the past two seasons, he ranks in the 96th percentile in pass rush win rate among off-ball linebackers and 93rd percentile in total pass rush wins despite blitzing on only 12% of opponent pass plays in that span, which is on the low side. It's a skill the Raiders could potentially tap into more.

Dean gets mixed reviews for his run stopping, but his tackle rate -- the percentage of opponent run plays he records a tackle or assist on -- against the run is a remarkable 25%, which ranks in the 96th percentile among off-ball linebackers. His run stop win rate is solid too, landing in the 90th percentile over that span, though I should note his numbers dropped in both metrics from 2024 to 2025. His 14.1% missed tackle rate last season was also higher than the 11.5% average for linebackers, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

The Raiders went out and signed Dean and Quay Walker to play linebacker as part of their free agent spending frenzy Monday. I think the contract is about right for Dean, and Las Vegas could potentially look back on this deal for a player entering his prime as a value given his level of play in 2024 and that he was coming off an injury (and had a shortened year) in 2025. -- Walder

Titans signing CB Cor'Dale Flott

Terms: Three years, $45 million

Grade: C-

Of all the contracts worked out Monday, it was the number on Flott's deal that took me the most by surprise. Even over Tyler Linderbaum's deal with the Raiders.

Prior to free agency. I worked on a new project in which I built a statistical model that uses free agency rankings from multiple media outlets, along with a couple other variables, to predict the contracts for each free agent. And I bring it up because while anecdotally it seemed to perform well, it really missed on Flott. The model forecast a deal coming in at just under $9 million per year. Flott got $15 million per year.

That doesn't mean it's a bad deal. Perhaps the outside world just generally underrated him. And to be fair, Flott's numbers are more solid than one might think: 1.1 and 1.0 yards per coverage snap allowed in 2024 and 2025, respectively, right around the 1.1 average for an outside corner. His 14% target rate is better than average. Those numbers probably overestimate Flott's ability, however, because he played opposite Deonte Banks for much of that time. Flott will join Alontae Taylor, who also agreed to terms with the Titans on Monday.

But the outside perception that Flott wasn't worth this much does matter a little bit. He got real cornerback money, in the neighborhood of Jaylen Watson -- who was considered one of the best corners in the class and got $17 million per year from the Rams. And Flott ended up well ahead of Jamel Dean, who earned $12.25 million per year from the Steelers. -- Walder

Raiders signing Edge Kwity Paye

Terms: Three years, $48 million

Grade: D+

I knew I was going to be down on Paye's signing no matter what -- and that was before I found out it was going to be at $16 million per year. Paye ranked last in pass rush win rate among all qualifiers at edge, at just 4.5%. That's a brutal number, especially when combined with a 12th percentile pressure rate. And he performed poorly in both numbers in 2024, too.

Now, in the wake