Masters 2026: A brutal test awaits at Augusta National

AUGUSTA, Ga. — Scottie Scheffler was on the 550-yard 15th hole during Wednesday’s practice round, having laid up to hit his third shot from an area on the left side of the fairway. For golfers who aren’t going for the green in two, it will be a popular spot for a short approach once the tournament begins on Thursday.

Scheffler hit what looked like a very good wedge, drawing it in from the right and letting the slope of the green feed it toward the hole on the front left.

But the ball just wouldn’t stop.

Little by little, it picked up speed. Suddenly, it was heading off the edge without slowing down even a little bit, settling right into the pond that guards the front of the green.

It did not seem like Scheffler, a two-time champion here, had made an egregious mistake. But it did look like a warning for the field as they prepare to play the driest Masters since 2011. If Augusta National is as firm and fast as it looked Wednesday, it will take great shots — not just good shots — to hold some of these greens.

“You have to be more precise when it's firm because you're going to really want to land in your landing spot that you plan on hitting,” Kurt Kitayama said. “Just whenever it's firm and fast makes any course difficult, and especially with how sloped the greens are, it's going to be even more penalizing missing your spots.”

Despite Augusta National’s myriad adjustments over the years to lengthen the course and keep up with modern equipment changes, its best defense against an all-out birdie assault is still Mother Nature.

When it rains and the course gets wet and soft — particularly on the greens — the best players in the world have a better chance to control their approach shots and shoot low scores. When it’s dry, the course gets firm, the greens develop a bit of a yellowish crust, the balls become more difficult to stop and the putts get lightning fast.

Scottie Scheffler looks on from the 13th green during a practice round prior to the 2026 Masters Tournament. (Photo by Hector Vivas/Getty Images)

(Hector Vivas via Getty Images)

That appears to be where Augusta National is headed this week, with the forecast calling for sunny skies and temperatures rising from 73 on Thursday to a high of 86 on the weekend. After eight straight years of the winning score being at least 10-under, is this a year that 9-under might be good enough?

“I always feel like it plays firm. Augusta is just different levels of firmness,” Matt Fitzpatrick said. “I think mainly it's just scoring that will change, but I think, if you look over the last five or six, I think the average winning score is like 11-under. I’m kind of looking at that target to set for the week really.”

Augusta National has never been overly concerned about what score wins its tournament. Thanks to the SubAir system underneath the greens, it also has the ability to dry things out quickly if there’s rain.

But technology can only do so much to control the playing environment. A hot, dry course on the weekend means the ball will roll further off the tee, but it also means players will have to hit their approach shots in the right places to give themselves birdie chances. Missing on the wrong side of a green could be a huge penalty.

And if Augusta puts the pins in certain places, you’re going to see a lot of players hit balls like Scheffler at No. 15 on Wednesday with too much spin. Even if you think you hit a good shot, there’s no guarantee it’ll stay on the green.

The only thing in the players’ favor, if the forecast holds, will be a lack of wind.

“For me, I'm hoping that the tougher the better, because it just means that you need to have everything on from tee to green,” Jason Day said. “It's always imperative that if you don't hit the greens here, that you leave yourself in the correct locations and if you leave yourself a good up-and-down, then you're always moving forward. It's very easy to try and force the issue here when you know that you shouldn't.”

One thing seems likely: Dustin Johnson’s record 20-under par from the COVID Masters in the fall of 2020 is probably safe.

“It's all conditions,” Johnson said. “It played fairly soft and it's a completely different course this year. Starting to bounce a little bit. Makes it a little bit more difficult.”