Morning Minute: Crypto Soars, Oil Tumbles on 2-Week Ceasefire

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by*Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt.* *And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes or less, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.*

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors jump 5-7% on Iran 2-week ceasefire deal; BTC at $71,700
• ZEC jumps 25% leading top movers; ZRO +18%, HYPE +8%
• Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF goes live today with lowest fees
• FDIC issues guidance on how banks can issue stablecoins
• DOJ rejects Roman Storm’s motion to drop charges ahead of retrial

🌎 Bitcoin & Crypto Soar on 2-Week Cease Fire

At 6:32 PM ET Tuesday, ninety minutes before his own deadline to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants, Trump posted on Truth Social announcing a “double sided CEASEFIRE.”

He said he’d suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, contingent on Iran immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and cited a 10-point Iranian proposal as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formally accepted. Israel agreed too, per two White House officials who spoke to Reuters.

The market response was swift. Bitcoin surged from sub-$68,000 to $72,700 on the news, reversing a selloff that started when Trump posted his “whole civilization will die tonight” threat that same morning. Oil collapsed, falling over 20%. US stock futures popped across the board, with the Nasdaq up 3.5% and the Dow up over 1k points.

So where does this leave us? Analysts had flagged a confirmed Hormuz reopening as the one catalyst capable of pushing BTC to $90,000+. Two weeks is not peace; far from it. But if the Strait opens, oil drops, and the Fed gets the breathing room markets have been desperate for since late February. The new clock is running.

Key Details:

• Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran Tuesday evening contingent on Iran immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz; said the US has “already met and exceeded all Military objectives” and received a 10-point Iranian proposal he called “a workable basis on which to negotiate”
• Iran accepted: FM Araghchi confirmed Iranian forces would cease operations and facilitate Hormuz passage; Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formally signed on; Iran declared victory
• Bitcoin surged from sub-$68,000 to $72,700 on the news (now $71,500); oil fell 20%; US stock futures jumped with S&P 500 +2.6%, Nasdaq +3.5%

🏛️ FDIC Just Told Banks How to Issue Stablecoins

The FDIC dropped its proposed rulemaking under the GENIUS Act Tuesday, laying out how FDIC-supervised banks can issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries.

The framework covers reserve standards, mandatory redemption at par, liquidity controls, audits, and custody requirements. Notably, stablecoins are explicitly excluded from FDIC deposit insurance.

This is the detail that matters for institutional adoption. Banks can issue stablecoins. Their clients know exactly what the rules are. But a stablecoin run won’t be backstopped by the government the way a bank deposit would be.

The IMF flagged this exact dynamic yesterday, stating that stablecoins behave like money market funds, not deposits. Now the regulatory framework makes that official.

Key Details:

• The FDIC published proposed rules to implement the GENIUS Act, laying out how FDIC-supervised banks can issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries; the framework opens a 60-day comment period
• No deposit insurance: stablecoins are explicitly excluded from FDIC protection; issuers must hold 1:1 reserves but if they fail, customers aren’t covered the way bank depositors are
• The field: the OCC has already proposed its own GENIUS Act implementation rules; the FDIC proposal adds the banking regulator’s layer, building out the full federal framework

🏦 Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Goes Live Today

MSBT is launching today.

The SEC green-lit the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust on Tuesday, and the fund starts trading on NYSE Arca Wednesday morning. The fee is 0.14%, notable because it’s the lowest of any spot Bitcoin ETF currently trading. BlackRock’s IBIT charges 0.25%; so does Fidelity’s FBTC.

Even more notable (and relevant for bulls), Morgan Stanley has approximately 16,000 financial advisors on its payroll, and the firm’s Global Investment Committee already recommended allocating up to 4% of portfolios to crypto for “opportunistic growth” last year.

Those advisors now have a Morgan Stanley-branded product to recommend to clients, which Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas called a “captive audience.”

Not a bad setup.

Key Details:

• Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) launches today on NYSE Arca with a 0.14% expense ratio, the lowest in the Bitcoin ETF market; fee is waived entirely on the first $5B invested for six months
• The advisor army: Morgan Stanley has ~16,000 financial advisors and $9.3 trillion in AUM
• The firm’s own recommendation: Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee told advisors to allocate up to 4% of portfolios to crypto last year and now they have MSBT giving those advisors a brand they trust

⚖️ SEC Chair Atkins Says “Reg Crypto” Is Coming

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said Tuesday the Commission is close to releasing what he’s calling “Reg Crypto,” as a formal regulatory framework to address crypto fundraising questions.

The implication here is that the SEC is building a crypto-native offering regime so projects don’t have to squeeze into Reg A, Reg D, or existing securities exemptions that weren’t designed for digital assets.

This is the last major piece of the regulatory stack:

• GENIUS Act covers stablecoins
• The Clarity Act covers market structure
• Reg Crypto would cover how tokens are issued in the first place.

If all three land, the US framework is effectively complete.

Key Details:

• SEC Chair Atkins told an audience Tuesday that the SEC is “close to putting out” Reg Crypto, a framework aimed at answering the fundraising questions that have left crypto token issuers in legal limbo since 2017
• The gap it fills: current securities exemptions (Reg A, Reg D, Reg S) weren’t designed for token issuances; Reg Crypto would create a crypto-native pathway that gives projects legal clarity from day one
• The stack: GENIUS Act (stablecoins, signed July 2025) + Clarity Act (market structure, moving through Congress) + Reg Crypto (token issuance) = the full US regulatory framework

⚖️ Prosecutors Slam the Door on Roman Storm’s Latest Argument

The SDNY prosecutors aren’t done with Roman Storm.

On Tuesday, U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton filed a response to Storm’s motion to get the remaining charges dropped before a retrial. Storm’s lawyers had cited a landmark March 2026 Supreme Court ruling, Cox Communications v. Sony Music, which found that ISPs can’t be held liable for copyright infringement just because they knew their service was being used to infringe. The argument was that if an internet provider isn’t liable for what its users do with knowledge alone, a software developer shouldn’t be either.

Clayton rejected it, saying that Storm’s conduct “bears no resemblance” to the Cox case, which was a civil copyright dispute. Calling the legal theory “window dressing at best and outright misdirection at worst,” Clayton argued a civil copyright case “has no relevance here in the first place” - Storm faces criminal charges for money laundering and sanctions evasion, a completely different legal standard.

Key Details:

• • Federal prosecutors (Trump DOJ’s SDNY) filed an opposition Tuesday to Roman Storm’s acquittal motion, rejecting his attempt to use Cox Communications v. Sony Music as a defense against criminal money laundering and sanctions charges
  • What comes next: oral arguments on Storm’s Rule 29 motion for acquittal are scheduled for tomorrow, April 9; prosecutors want an October retrial on the two deadlocked counts (money laundering and sanctions evasion, each carrying up to 20 years)
  • The backdrop: AG Blanche’s April 2025 memo told prosecutors to stop charging crypto developers with regulatory violations; his DOJ is still trying to retry Storm on two counts carrying a potential 40-year maximum combined sentence

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors soared after a 2-week Iran ceasefire was announced; BTC +5% at $71.7k; ETH +8% at $2,250; SOL +7% at $84; HYPE +8% at $39.20
• ZEC (+25%), ZRO (+18%), and ENA (+15%) led top movers
• Oil +4% at $114; Gold -1% at $4,640
• Circle announced the launch of its Stablecoin Payouts for its Singapore partners, expandings its payments business in Asia
• The Solana Foundation unveiled a post-Drift DeFi security program including 24/7 threat monitoring for protocols with more than $10M in deposits and a dedicated incident response network of security firms
• World Liberty Financial faces scrutiny over ties to a sanctioned Asia-based blockchain project after a deal with individuals later flagged over alleged connections to a major fraud network

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $159M in net outflows on Tuesday, its highest total since Feb 25; the ETH ETFs had $65M in net outflows

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were very green; DOGE +4%, SHIB +4%, PEPE +9%, TRUMP +8%, PENGU +8%, SPX +10%, FARTCOIN +21%
• **Spike (12x),**LOL (+32%), Swarms (+36%), and Testicle (+22%) led notable onchain movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• The Aave token fell to a near 2-year low as Chaos Labs, its risk management firm, announced its departure from the protocol
• CME Group announced AVAX and SUI futures contracts set to launch May 4, with micro and standard sizes

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly flat with ETH pumping; Punks +1% at 28.75 ETH, Pudgy -2% at 4.25 ETH, BAYC +1% at 6.39 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 404 HYPE
• Gimboz(+24%) and Moonbirds (+8%) led notable movers