NBA postseason intel: Six big questions we're watching right now

In the NBA, March and April can be a mirage.

The final few weeks of the regular season feature the best teams preparing for the playoffs, the worst teams tanking, banged-up star players being shut down and plenty of outlier situations unfolding.

The bottom line? Performances and storylines at this point in the season aren't always predictive of the league, its teams and its players' future. (The Malachi Flynn Principle, if you will.)

As a result, one thing coaches, scouts and executives do this time of year is decide whether what they're seeing on the court is real or not. As the 2025-26 regular season enters its final weekend, we asked league insiders which late-season trends will carry over to the playoffs and which could reverse once the stakes become greater.

Can the Lakers win a series without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves?

Brian Windhorst: It is important to understand that both Doncic (hamstring) and Reaves (oblique) were diagnosed with Grade 2 strains. Both players will absolutely try to find a way to come back in time to make an impact on the first round, but these are significant injuries. Who can say how a soft tissue injury will feel two weeks from now, but the Lakers have to operate as if Doncic and Reaves will miss the entire series.

The question becomes: Can the Lakers win four of seven games with 41-year-old LeBron James carrying them against the Houston Rockets, their most likely opponent?

"There's tactical stuff I'm sure [Lakers coach JJ Redick] and his staff are examining and they're running through lineup ideas," an Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. "But honestly, the Lakers need LeBron to have a hot shooting series and for the Rockets to have a cold shooting series. That's possible, and when LeBron gets his 3-pointer going, it opens up the entire game."

"They need Marcus Smart to be healthy," a Western Conference scout said. "He's an important point-of-attack defender for them. They can't afford to lose another starter, and he's been out."

Tim Bontemps: The unfortunate irony is that James, Doncic and Reaves had finally gotten themselves going -- in large part because James bought into a "third star" role.

"Someone always has to sacrifice in that role," an East executive said. "In the past, that's been Chris Bosh or Kevin Love. This time, it was him."

Now, the Lakers will lean on James to carry lineups that are virtually devoid of ballhandling and shot creation. You can construct a world where the Lakers can do that -- James gets hot, the Lakers' role players hit shots and Houston struggles in the clutch -- but that's also ignoring the clear talent gap between the two sides with Doncic and Reaves out.

"Houston's defense," a West executive said, "will just swallow them up."

Windhorst: For two decades, when James' teams have been in trouble, the old reliable has been to put the ball in his hands, spread the floor and let him find the best shot. But there is a question of whether James, who has looked healthy for the past four to six weeks, can still beat players off the dribble in the half court. (Much of the damage he has done during the Lakers' second-half surge has been in transition, where he remains very effective.)

"I'd love to be able to see LeBron have a vintage series," a second West executive said. "But I'm afraid the teams that win the play-in might give OKC and San Antonio a better series than the Lakers can give Houston without AR and Luka."

Is Boston's supporting cast good enough for another Finals run?

Bontemps: Much of the focus during the Celtics' time as title contenders has been on their stars: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and also players such as Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Jrue Holiday.

But that focus has masked one of the NBA's top player development machines, one that has continuously turned late first-round picks, second-round picks and undrafted players into mainstays. This season, after the franchise lost Porzingis, Horford and Holiday in the offseason, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has put role players such as Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and Hugo Gonzalez in positions to succeed.

"Everyone's weaknesses are minimized," an Eastern scout said, "and they maximize their guys' strengths. And, by doing that, they create so many 3s that it's tough to match up with them."

Windhorst: Mazzulla really did a masterful job this season of developing his bench and setting and defining roles that allowed Tatum to rejoin seamlessly. It also helps that Payton Pritchard has matured into an indispensable contributor who delivers whether he's starting or coming off the bench.

But rivals believe Boston's young players will be tested.

"There's going to be a bad quarter or two, and probably not until the second round, where their young guys are going to show their age," an East executive said. "They probably have enough [star power] to bail them out once or twice, but how they respond to adversity will teach us a lot about how good this roster really is."

Bontemps: Boston's other question is at center. Neemias Queta is a deserving Most Improved Player candidate, but his potential playoff matchups include the Detroit Pistons' Jalen Duren, the Cleveland Cavaliers' Jarrett Allen and the New York Knicks' Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The Celtics' backups, Luka Garza and Nikola Vucevic, are both floor spacers but question marks defensively.

"Can you survive with Queta and Garza and Vuc [at center]?" a West assistant coach said. "I think they're the team to beat because I've seen them do it."

Will the Cavs' defensive regression doom them?

Windhorst: The Cavaliers had one of their best halves in the past few weeks Wednesday when they beat the Hawks, who entered the night winning 18 of their past 21 games. They held Atlanta to 41% shooting in the second half, and Donovan Mitchell and James Harden were terrific in a 44-point third quarter. Evan Mobley had a big game scoring and rebounding.

But that game stuck out because the Cavs allowed 67 points in the first half, part of a regression over the past two-plus months that has dropped their defensive efficiency to 17th since the All-Star break. Earlier this week, they gave up an NBA-record 29 3-pointers to the Memphis Grizzlies, part of a 3-point defense that has been victimized this season. Cleveland is allowing 42% shooting on corner 3s since the break, 20th in the league alongside many of the tanking teams.

The Cavs are 19-6 when Harden plays, but their defensive struggles and shifting lineups have made it hard to have enormous confidence in them.

"Harden is a master of offense, and he and Mitchell are an absolute load to handle every night," an East scout said. "But Harden has been in better shape and the referees don't give him as many calls as they used to for some reason. And it shows up on defense; he and Mitchell sometimes get torched out there."

Bontemps: On one hand, Cleveland can hope that getting back Allen, who has been dealing with knee issues for the past few weeks, will help remedy its struggling defense.

On the other hand, relying on either Max Strus or Dean Wade to guard elite bigger wings and ball handlers in the playoffs could prove to be a struggle.

"Allen has missed a bunch of time, and he's a big part of who they are," a scout who saw the Cavaliers recently said. "You'll get a bump because it's the playoffs, and everyone is locked in, but you still have to manage Donovan and James. ...

"Strus and Wade aren't good enough, and Keon Ellis is too small."

Windhorst: Harden is averaging 5.8 free throws per game in Cleveland, down from 8.5 in the 44 games he played for the Clippers this season. The Cavs are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency since trading for him.

"I understand the reasons they made the Harden trade, and I think it did put them in a better spot," an East executive said. "But they are going to have times where they're going to be better off with [Sam] Merrill out there on defense more than Harden. I think they'll go as far as Donovan's scoring can take them, and that's something we've seen before with his teams."

Mitchell has averaged 28 points over 63 playoff games, with seven 40-point playoff games and three 50-point playoff games. He has never reached a conference finals.

Can Jalen Duren be the second option for a Finals team?

Bontemps: Duren, alongside MVP candidate Cade Cunningham, has driven massive success during Detroit's run to the East's top seed. But can the first-time All-Star center score enough to be the second option on a team that hasn't had any playoff success yet?

"I like Duren," a West executive said. "I'm terrified to give him his max [this summer], but the dude is a beast. He grabs every rebound, can guard and his scoring has exceeded everything I would have expected coming into the season."

Windhorst: When Cunningham was sidelined with a collapsed lung, the playmaking-challenged Pistons started leaning on Duren to create offense for them. Coach JB Bickerstaff designed plays on which Duren was the trigger man with the ball at the top of the key, something few knew he had in his game. His usage rate and assists spiked, and the Pistons' offense really benefited.

In the 12 games before Cunningham got hurt, Duren had a total of 14 assists. In a nine-game stretch with Cunningham out, Duren averaged four per game. It's something new the Pistons could have in the game plan during the playoffs.

Bontemps: That said, teams have typically needed a second high-level ball handler to get to the end in the postseason, like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams for Oklahoma City last year. That option doesn't exist right now for Detroit, meaning it will have to be a committee approach.

"When the first guy has so much usage, is that easier?" the West executive asked. "That helps it some. But I don't know if it can be only him."

Is San Antonio's post-All-Star shooting surge real?

Windhorst: Early in the season, even as the Spurs were off to an awesome start behind Victor Wembanyama's rim attacking, the common counter was to pack the paint to force 3-pointers. It was a sound strategy -- the Spurs aren't loaded with long-range shooters, and Wembanyama can be tempted into lower-percentage shots. Over the season's first 50 games, the Spurs were 17th in 3-pointers per game and 22nd in percentage.

"I keep seeing you media guys say why the Spurs aren't going to win the title," one East vice president said. "You'd be better off listing reasons why they are."

OK, here is a big one: Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have surged big-time from deep. They are shooting better than 38%, third in the league in that span, and are up to 14.9 makes a game, putting them just outside the top five.

Bontemps: It's one thing to make those shots in February and March. It's another to make them in late April, May and June -- particularly when this roster is largely devoid of playoff experience.

It's been 30 years since a team in this type of position reached the NBA Finals without making a run the year before: the 1995 Orlando Magic, led by Shaquille O'Neal and Anfernee Hardaway. There are plenty of similarities between these two teams, and perhaps things will play out like they did that year for the Magic and their young stars.

However, Saturday's thriller against the Denver Nuggets, during which Keldon Johnson, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle combined to go 0-for-16, is a window into the approach playoff opponents could take.

"Young guys going through the playoffs for the first time is a totally different animal," a West assistant coach said. "It will be interesting to see how those guys handle it.

"But maybe Victor will figure it all out on his own."

Can Stephen Curry power Golden State to two road wins?

Bontemps: The immediate answer from league insiders I spoke to was "no." Obviously, it's been a brutal season for Golden State from an injury perspective, including losing both Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody for the season, plus the Jonathan Kuminga drama over the first half of the season and Kristaps Porzingis and Curry missing large chunks of the second half.

"I'm not sure they even win the 9-10 game, let alone both," a West scout said. "It's one thing when Steph gets it going at home and he's got that crowd roaring behind him. That's a real thing.

"It's different when they're on the road and he's doing it somewhere else. That same factor just isn't there."

Windhorst: So much of the attention on the Warriors is naturally on Curry, a game changer in every way. But the Warriors' defense has really struggled coming down the stretch as Steve Kerr has managed injuries.

"Our analytics people will tell me that 3-point shooting often comes down to luck, and it's just a matter of the quality of the shot," a West scout said. "Well, the Warriors sure as hell must be having some terrible luck, because the last few times I've watched them they're getting killed on corner 3s."

The numbers, horrifyingly for Golden State, back that up. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors are giving up a league-worst 46% shooting percentage on corner 3-pointers and a jaw-dropping 57% on right corner 3s. But it's also bad inside, as opponents are shooting 71% in the restricted area over the past two months, fifth worst in the league.

It's difficult to look at the Warriors' current form and argue they're primed for any sort of run.