No. 1 pick for the NBA draft is narrowed down to three key players

Darryn Peterson of the Kansas Jayhawks dribbles the ball against the St. John's during the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Although we’ll still be waiting a few more months before this year’s National Basketball Association (NBA) draft, debates about the top prospect have been raging since October.

While players like Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. and Michigan’s forward Yaxel Lendeborg have been making waves in the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Tournament, the main conversation for a while has focused on three one-and-done standouts: Duke big Cameron Boozer, Brigham Young University (BYU) wing AJ Dybantsa, and Kansas guard Darryn Peterson.

Especially given each player’s different roles and distinct skill sets, it’s tough to predict who will actually be selected first overall. We won’t know the order of teams until May’s draft lottery, and differing philosophies on what makes someone a team’s preferred pick muddy the waters even further. However, Peterson remains the most promising player on the board.

How Peterson is a league above his peers

An old-school post player, power forward Boozer has the lowest ceiling of these top-tier players, but easily the most certainty. Averaging 23 points and 10 rebounds to lead a Duke team that was significantly better than Kansas and BYU, Boozer is physical, efficient, and has the least necessary development before making an impact in the league.

His polish as a scorer and intelligence on the defensive end are easily transferable skills, and scouts also love how little his teams have lost to this point.

Alongside his brother Cayden, Boozer won four high school state championships and this year claimed an Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) championship and a No. 1 seed in the tournament. He was named the Associated Press Player of the Year on Thursday, April 2, becoming only the fifth freshman ever to earn the award.

However, Boozer is undersized for his playstyle at 6-foot-9 and severely lacks athleticism as well as the ability to create on his own.

A lot of his film sees him making the right plays and rarely missing chances. He is often forced to take tough shots, and does so low to the ground and leaning away from the basket in a way that leads you to believe he may be even more easily contested in the NBA. He is a lock to be at least a solid second option on a professional team, but the lack of ceiling and versatility makes him likely the third-best prospect in this draft.

Jan 3, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) drives to the net past Florida State Seminoles forward Thomas Bassong (3) during the first half at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Dybantsa is thought of as the all-around pick here. Leading the country with 26 points per game, he has elite athleticism and can score at every level, with over 40-point performances against Utah and Kansas State. He is ball-dominant, but breaks down and blows by defenders.

His versatility is also a major part of his potential. While he isn’t a top-level 3-point shooter, defender, or ballhandler, the appeal is that he does all of these pretty well, with a lot of room to grow and the aforementioned scoring and explosiveness.

The downside with Dybantsa is a side-effect of his talent and lack of help on a good but not great BYU team: the rate at which he shoots the ball makes him inefficient. With better defense and surely fewer touches, his numbers are sure to decline. Becoming a go-to star in the league thus hinges on those various areas of development, something that some high-picking teams have a bad track record of cultivating.

Additionally, he was fully outplayed by Peterson when BYU visited Kansas this year, struggling to read the defense and make things work outside of isolation.

Never miss a game: Sign up for the FSView Newsletter

Peterson has undoubtedly been subject to the most criticism of these players, missing 11 of 27 regular-season games, playing limited minutes, and suffering injuries and cramp issues that have moved some to conclude his health risk is too high. An athletically gifted guard whose career is hindered by injury is a common trope in NBA discourse, with names like Ja Morant and historically Brandon Roy continuing to cultivate a stigma.

However, the main appeal is his offensive skillset. Often lauded as the most promising scorer in the freshman class, his composure with the ball in his hands, as well as the clip at which he converts outside jumpers, establishes his appeal to be the engine of a team’s offense.

While he largely played off the ball this season and could have slightly better efficiency at the rim, being 6-foot-6 at his position as well as able to change hands and finish both around and through contact further dispels the notion he’ll struggle at the next level.

Should analysis of his health not bring disastrous results, he’ll be poised to completely revitalize a team’s trajectory. The high-level traits are agreed to all be there, and those who focus on his shortcomings during the season usually ignore that he’ll likely continue to move toward his best self, making the instances he’s criticized for less and less common.

Dylan Rivas is a Staff Writer for the Views section of the FSView & Florida Flambeau, the student-run, independent online news service for the FSU community. Email our staff at  contact@fsview.com.

This article originally appeared on FSU News: See who will likely be the No. 1 pick for the NBA draft