Ranking every No. 1 pick since 2000: Matthew Stafford tops list, Joe Burrow's health looms large

USATSI

Fair or not, the careers of No. 1 overall picks are scrutinized more than those of any other NFL players. Some flourish at the next level, delivering wins and memorable moments to their teams and fan bases. Others fail to live up to the hype.

In 2025, Cam Ward joined the list of players taken No. 1 overall. While his rookie season was tumultuous, Ward's display of grit and toughness during the Tennessee Titans' 2025 campaign should give optimism to a fan base hoping for a revival following the hiring of coach Robert Saleh.

Given the potential he showed last season, Ward will likely move up this list of No. 1 overall picks selected since 2000 in the coming years. The criteria for ranking each player were based on career achievements and which player we would select first with the No. 1 pick. For active players, projected career trajectory was also a factor.

26. QB JaMarcus Russell (2007)

Russell is arguably the biggest bust in NFL draft history.

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft, JaMarcus Russell joined the Raiders after leading LSU to an 11-2 record that included a blowout win over Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. He enjoyed a memorable junior season in Baton Rouge, completing 67.8% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

After spending most of his rookie season on the bench, Russell completed less than 54% of his passes in 2008 as the Raiders went just 5-10 with him as their starter. He bottomed out the following season, completing just 48.8% of his passes with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions in nine starts. The team released him the following offseason, and he has not played professionally since 2009 after unsuccessful comeback attempts in 2013 and 2016.

[Ranking NFL's 10 biggest draft busts since 1990: Raiders pick is at the top, Trey Lance cracks top five

John Breech

25. EDGE Courtney Brown (2000)

The Browns' second No. 1 overall pick in as many years -- after selecting Tim Couch in 1999 -- was part of a talented Penn State defense that included linebacker LaVar Arrington, a three-time Pro Bowler taken immediately after Brown. But unlike Arrington, Courtney Brown never developed into a Pro Bowl-caliber player, recording just 19 sacks in 61 career games.

Injuries plagued Brown throughout his career. After a solid rookie season, he tallied 4.5 sacks five games into his second year before suffering a season-ending injury. While he rebounded with solid production in 2002 and 2003 -- including a career-high six sacks in 2003 -- injuries ultimately ended his career after just one season with the Broncos in 2005.

24. QB Cam Ward (2025)

Ward showed resilience under constant pressure, flashing late-season upside despite a rocky rookie year. Getty Images

Like most No. 1 picks, Cam Ward spent his rookie season on a bad team. His situation undoubtedly hindered his statistical success. He was sacked a league-high 55 times, going down on 9.24% of his dropbacks.

Despite constant pressure, Ward still threw more than twice as many touchdowns (15) as interceptions (7) while appearing in all 17 games. He began to show his potential during Weeks 14-17, throwing eight touchdowns against one interception while leading the Titans to wins over the Browns and Chiefs.

23. QB David Carr (2002)

The Texans' first-ever draft pick, David Carr was the NFL's most-sacked quarterback in three of his first four seasons. While Houston's inability to protect him hindered his development, Carr eventually became a capable starter.

In his third season, Carr completed over 60% of his passes for the first time while helping lead the Texans to a 7-9 record. Two years later, he led the NFL with a 68.8% completion rate.

Carr's play improved after Houston drafted Andre Johnson in the first round in 2003. Johnson — one of the best receivers of his era — earned his first two Pro Bowl selections with Carr, who won a Super Bowl late in his career as Eli Manning's backup.

22. QB Sam Bradford (2010)

While he never became a franchise quarterback, Sam Bradford put together a solid nine-year career that included a league-best 71.6% completion rate in 2016. He also threw for a career-high 3,877 yards that season with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Bradford had four seasons with at least seven wins as a starter. In those years, he averaged 3,706 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 63.9% of his passes.

Health remained a persistent issue, as Bradford suffered multiple serious injuries, including two to the same ACL.

21. QB Bryce Young (2023)

Young showed his potential during the Panthers' unexpected run to a division title in 2025.  Getty Images

Bryce Young's career hit an early crossroads in his second season when he was benched after just two games. He threw only five passes over the next five games before an injury forced him back into the starting lineup. He took full advantage, winning two of his first three starts and reclaiming his job.

In 2025, Young set career highs in passing yards (3,011), touchdowns (23), and completion percentage (63.6%). His performance helped fuel the Panthers' surprising run to an NFC South title.

20. QB Jameis Winston (2015)

The always-entertaining Winston hasn't started more than seven games in a season since 2019. Getty Images

While there have obviously been better quarterbacks, few have been more entertaining and unpredictable than Jameis Winston, who in 2019 led the NFL in both passing yards (5,109) and interceptions (30). His alarming interception rate that season compelled Bruce Arians to replace him with Tom Brady, who in his first season in Tampa led the Buccaneers to their second Super Bowl title.

Winston -- who has attributed his turnover woes in Tampa to vision issues -- was a much more polished player in New Orleans. In 2021, he came off the bench to lead New Orleans to a 5-2 record while throwing 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Despite that success, Winston has never received another legitimate opportunity to be a team's QB1. He is currently a member of the Giants after spending the 2025 season behind Jaxson Dart and Russell Wilson.

19. QB Caleb Williams (2024)

While his career completion percentage leaves something to be desired, Williams has an impressive career TD-INT ratio of 47-13.  Getty Images

Polarizing is an apt way to describe Caleb Williams' first two years as the Bears' starting quarterback. His ability to rise to the occasion has somewhat made up for his inconsistent play.

Williams provided Bears fans with a memorable moment this past January, leading Chicago to a breathtaking, come-from-behind win over the archrival Packers in the NFC wild card round. This season, he will try to become the first Bears quarterback to throw for over 4,000 yards in a season after finishing 58 yards short in 2025.

18. EDGE Travon Walker (2022)

The Jaguars are banking on Walker replicating his 10.5-sack, 13-TFL season in 2024. USATSI

Sandwiched between two mediocre seasons are two double-digit sack seasons for Travon Walker, who had just 3.5 sacks in 2025 after recording a career-high 10.5 in 2024. His regression last season can be partly attributed to a wrist injury that required in-season surgery.

Based on his shiny new contract, it's clear the Jaguars believe Walker's best football is still ahead of him.

17. OT Eric Fisher (2013)

Eric Fisher was one of the NFL's better offensive tackles for an extended period. A two-time Pro Bowler, he started 128 of his 132 career games and was a key contributor on Kansas City's 2019 championship team, helping protect quarterback Patrick Mahomes during his early years as the Chiefs' QB1.

Fisher finished his career in Indianapolis, where he helped Jonathan Taylor win the NFL rushing title.

16. EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (2014)

Clowney has thrived on one-year contracts later in his career, signing five of them since 2020. Getty Images

While he hasn't lived up to his draft stock, Jadeveon Clowney has nonetheless had a productive career that includes three Pro Bowl berths with the Texans. Last season, he recorded 8.5 sacks, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries in 13 games with the Cowboys -- not a bad stat line for a 32-year-old in his 12th NFL season.

Last season marked the fifth time Clowney has recorded at least 8.5 sacks in a season. He did so twice with the Texans, again with the Browns in 2021 and with the Ravens in 2023.

15. QB Alex Smith (2005)

Had he come around 20 years earlier, Alex Smith's best five-year stretch would have made him a perennial All-Pro. That said, he still earned three Pro Bowl selections during that span and won an impressive 99 regular-season games as a starting quarterback.

During his five seasons with the Chiefs, Smith averaged 3,522 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions per season while completing 65.1% of his passes. His best season came in 2017, when he completed 67.5% of his passes for 4,042 yards with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also found postseason success, including leading the 49ers to within one game of the Super Bowl in 2011 and guiding the Chiefs to their first playoff win since 1993 in 2015.

Smith's career, though, is largely remembered for how it ended. He nearly lost his right leg after a severe injury in 2018. After missing the entire 2019 season, he shocked many by returning in 2020. He went 5-1 as a starter that season while helping the Commanders win the NFC East and earned Comeback Player of the Year honors in what became his final season.

14. QB Trevor Lawrence (2021)

Lawrence has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in three of the past four seasons.  USATSI

Trevor Lawrence's ability to overcome adversity might be the most impressive part of his NFL career so far. Despite multiple coaching changes and a season-ending injury in 2024, Lawrence endured and led the Jaguars to their best regular season this century in 2025.

During his first season with Liam Coen as coach, Lawrence accounted for a career-high 38 touchdowns, including a career-high 29 passing scores. He also ran for a career-high nine touchdowns.

13. QB Kyler Murray (2019)

Murray has a chance to revitalize his career in Minnesota.  USATSI

After the sun set on his time in the desert, Kyler Murray will look to restart his career in Minnesota under bona fide quarterback whisperer Kevin O'Connell.

Murray's career began with three impressive seasons. He won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and in 2020 became only the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 20 touchdowns and run for at least 10 in the same season. In 2021, Murray entered early MVP conversations after leading Arizona to a 9-0 start. His play in 14 games helped the Cardinals clinch their first playoff berth since 2015.

Murray's career hit a speed bump in 2022 after a knee injury sidelined him for the final four games of that season and the first nine of the following year. He played well in 2024, but another injury sidelined him for the majority of the 2025 season.

12. QB Baker Mayfield (2018)

Mayfield's career includes playoff wins in Tampa and Cleveland.  USATSI

After a disastrous ending in Cleveland, Baker Mayfield revitalized his career by winning a game for the Rams in dramatic fashion just two days after signing with them. He then got a second chance as a QB1 in Tampa following Tom Brady's retirement.

Mayfield's first two seasons in Tampa ended with Pro Bowl berths and division titles. He entered early MVP conversations last year before injuries ultimately derailed the Buccaneers' ship.

While his time in Cleveland didn't go as planned, Mayfield still led the Browns to their first playoff win since 1994. His tenure there also included a strong rookie season, as he helped a team that had won just one combined game over the previous two years to a surprising 7-8-1 record.

11. OT Jake Long (2008)

An immediate starter, Jake Long made the Pro Bowl in each of his first four seasons and earned All-Pro honors in 2010. He helped Miami win the AFC East as a rookie while anchoring a Dolphins offense that featured Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. His blocking also helped Chad Pennington win his second Comeback Player of the Year award.

Long's career took an unfortunate turn near the end of the 2011 season, when his streak of 61 consecutive games ended after a back injury. He battled injuries for the remainder of his career, appearing in just 15 games over his final three seasons.

10. EDGE Mario Williams (2006)

Mario Williams' career was better than most remember. After an underwhelming rookie season, he tallied 14 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in his second year. Snubbed for the Pro Bowl that season, he earned selections in each of the next two years while establishing himself as one of the NFL's top pass rushers.

After six productive seasons in Houston, Williams was even better during his four years in Buffalo. He earned two more Pro Bowl berths during that span while recording 43 sacks, 53 tackles for loss and five forced fumbles. His best season came in 2014, when he earned All-Pro honors after posting career highs with 14.5 sacks and 19 tackles for loss.

Williams finished his 11-year career with 97.5 sacks, 121 tackles for loss and 16 forced fumbles.

9. QB Andrew Luck (2012)

While injuries forced him out of the game at age 29, Andrew Luck still accomplished a great deal in a seven-year career while serving as a worthy successor to Peyton Manning in Indianapolis.

Luck made the Pro Bowl in each of his first three seasons and led the Colts to three consecutive 11-5 records, including an AFC Championship Game appearance in 2014. That season, he led the NFL with 40 touchdown passes while throwing for a career-high 4,761 yards.

After missing half of the 2015 season and all of 2017 with injuries, Luck returned to win Comeback Player of the Year in 2018 while leading the Colts back to the postseason. He also earned his fourth Pro Bowl selection in what became his final NFL season.

In 94 career games, Luck threw 183 touchdown passes (against 96 interceptions) while compiling a 55-33 regular-season record and a 4-4 postseason mark. He joined a illustrious list of players who retired early.

8. QB Michael Vick (2001)

Michael Vick exemplifies a Hall of Fame-caliber player whose career is not represented in Canton, Ohio. His exclusion is largely due to him spending two of his prime years in prison for his role in a dogfighting ring.

While extremely negative at the time, the incident ultimately helped shape Vick's career in a positive way. Off the field, he became an advocate against animal fighting. On the field, he enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2010, winning Comeback Player of the Year and earning his fourth Pro Bowl selection while leading the Eagles to a division title.

Vick's career is largely defined by his five seasons as the Falcons' starting quarterback. During that span, he earned three Pro Bowl selections while carrying on the legacy of Randall Cunningham and Steve Young as one of the greatest running quarterbacks in NFL history. In 2006, he ran for 1,039 yards, becoming the first quarterback to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in a season.

In January 2003, Vick became the first visiting quarterback to defeat the Packers in a playoff game at Lambeau Field. In 2004, he led the Falcons to within one game of the Super Bowl.

7. QB Carson Palmer (2003)

Like fellow Bengals quarterback Ken Anderson, Carson Palmer's career has been largely overlooked. In both cases, playing in eras with more celebrated quarterbacks and not on championship teams contributed to them not getting their just due.

In his second season in Cincinnati, Palmer took a Bengals team that went 2-14 the year before his arrival and led it to its first division title and playoff berth in 16 seasons. He led the NFL that season in touchdown passes (32) and completion percentage (67.8%). The Bengals' playoff stay was short, however, after Palmer sustained a season-ending injury on Cincinnati's first offensive series in its loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers.

After a tumultuous end in Cincinnati and a forgettable two-year stint in Oakland, Palmer enjoyed a career rebirth in Arizona. Teaming with head coach Bruce Arians and future Hall of Fame receiver Larry Fitzgerald, Palmer posted a 38-21-1 record as a starter during his five seasons in the desert. In 2015, the 36-year-old enjoyed the best year of his career, completing 63.7% of his passes for 4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions while leading the Cardinals to the NFC Championship Game. He was inducted into the Cardinals' Ring of Honor in 2019.

6. QB Jared Goff (2016)

Among Goff's career highlights was a playoff win over Stafford and his former team in 2023.  Getty Images

While Matthew Stafford ultimately replaced him in Los Angeles, Jared Goff enjoyed a solid run with the Rams that included two Pro Bowls and an NFC title. He has been even better in Detroit, where he has earned three of his five career Pro Bowl berths. He has been a driving force behind the Lions' resurgence, which included an NFC Championship Game appearance in 2023 and a 15-2 regular-season finish in 2024.

Detroit's disappointing 2025 season -- the Lions finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2022 -- has overshadowed Goff's eye-popping stat line of 4,564 yards, a 68% completion percentage, 34 touchdowns and just eight interceptions.

The 31-year-old will enter the 2026 season less than 400 yards shy of 40,000 for his career and 44 touchdowns away from 300.

5. Joe Burrow (2020)

Staying healthy has been Burrow's biggest hurdle during his first six NFL seasons.  USATSI

In an alternate universe, Burrow would enter the 2026 season drawing comparisons to Joe Montana and Tom Brady. Instead, he is more often compared to Andrew Luck, the Colts' talented yet often-injured quarterback who retired in 2019 at age 29. Burrow has more than lived up to his status as a former No. 1 overall pick. Health, though, has largely eluded him to this point in his career.

Injuries cost Burrow the second half of his rookie season, the second half of his fourth season and more than half of his sixth season. He also underwent an appendectomy in July 2022 because of a ruptured appendix that caused him to miss the start of training camp. Burrow then missed more time the following summer after sustaining a calf injury at the start of camp.

To this point, Burrow has played in more than 10 games just three times. In those seasons, he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl and a second consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance, led the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes, and won Comeback Player of the Year twice. He enters the 2026 season as arguably the best current player yet to win league MVP.

4. QB Cam Newton (2011)

Newton and the Panthers were nearly unstoppable during the 2015 regular season.  Getty Images

Like Vick and Palmer, Newton is another former No. 1 overall pick whose career was extremely good but will likely fall short of Hall of Fame induction. In his case, his prime probably was not long enough to immortalize him one day in Canton. But if the Hall of Fame were based solely on a player's prime, it would be nearly impossible to leave Newton out.

During his first five seasons, Newton made three Pro Bowls, won Offensive Rookie of the Year and captured league MVP honors in 2015 after leading the Panthers to a 15-1 regular-season record. Carolina won three consecutive division titles over that span in addition to winning the NFC during Newton's MVP season.

Had Carolina defeated Denver in Super Bowl 50, Newton's career would carry a much stronger Hall of Fame case. But not only did Carolina lose to Denver, Newton and Co. struggled mightily on offense, scoring just 10 points while Newton committed two costly fumbles that led to 15 Broncos points. Newton was never quite the same after that game; he played in only 15 games three more times and appeared in just one more playoff game as the physicality of his style began to take a toll on his body.

Despite his career being relatively short, Newton's stats are impressive, a testament to how dominant he was in his prime. His 75 career rushing touchdowns are the most by a quarterback, while his 5,628 career rushing yards rank third among quarterbacks behind Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick. He ranks just ahead of Hall of Famers Kurt Warner and Sonny Jurgensen on the career passing list.

3. QB Eli Manning (2004)

Manning's career was largely defined by his two Super Bowl wins.  Getty Images

While Manning's legacy as an all-time great player is complicated, his status as one of the most accomplished No. 1 overall picks in NFL history is secure.

A two-time Super Bowl MVP, Manning authored two of the most incredible plays in Super Bowl history: his jaw-dropping completion to David Tyree that led to the Giants' historic upset of the then-undefeated Patriots, and his dime to Mario Manningham that set up the game-winning score in New York's second Super Bowl upset of New England, the NFL's preeminent team of the 21st century.

Manning was a man possessed during both playoff runs, outdueling future Hall of Famers Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. He was especially lethal in the 2011 playoffs, throwing nine touchdowns and just one interception over four games.

Postseason aside, Manning's regular-season numbers are largely underappreciated. While he retired with a .500 regular-season record, his 117 regular-season wins are the 18th-most in NFL history, just ahead of Hall of Famers Ken Stabler, Len Dawson and Steve Young. He was a four-time Pro Bowler during an era that featured a slew of other Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks and ranks 11th all time in both career passing yards and touchdown passes. His 210 consecutive starts are the third-highest total in league history.

[Eli Manning got omitted from Pro Football Hall of Fame again: Inside the most complex HOF case ever

Douglas Clawson

2. EDGE Myles Garrett (2017)

Garrett has become the most dominant defensive player of his era.  USATSI

No No. 1 overall pick this century has yet earned induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. If that still has not happened by the time Garrett receives his gold jacket, that drought will end when the Browns' prolific pass rusher is enshrined in Canton.

Garrett has cemented his unofficial status as a future Hall of Famer over the past three years. During that span, he has won Defensive Player of the Year twice, set the NFL single-season sack record and climbed into a tie for 20th on the all-time sack list. Garrett's 125.5 career sacks are 10.5 more than the next most prolific pass rusher, T.J. Watt, since 2017.

In 2020, Garrett helped lead the Browns to the franchise's first playoff win since 1994. More playoff success is the only thing that has eluded the 30-year-old as he enters his 10th season in Cleveland.

[Where does Browns' Myles Garrett rank among NFL's all-time pass rushers amid historic 2025 pace?

Cody Benjamin

1. QB Matthew Stafford (2009)

Stafford's time in Los Angeles has solidified his legacy as an all-time great.  Getty Images

The 2025 season all but locked up Stafford's status as a future Hall of Famer, which is the primary reason he is the best No. 1 overall pick since 2000. While he was overlooked for most of his career, Stafford's success with the Rams and impressive longevity have brought him more attention during the back nine of his career.

During his five seasons in Los Angeles, Stafford has made two Pro Bowls and in 2025 was named league MVP while earning All-Pro honors for the first time. He won his first passing title last season while also throwing a league-high 46 touchdown passes and leading the Rams to an NFC Championship Game appearance.

Stafford's first season with the Rams ended with him throwing the game-winning touchdown pass in the Super Bowl. While the recipient of that pass -- Cooper Kupp -- won Super Bowl MVP honors, Stafford's no-look pass to Kupp during the Rams' game-winning drive immediately became part of Super Bowl lore.

Stafford had a prolific run in Detroit before joining the Rams. A Pro Bowler in 2014, he averaged 4,466 passing yards and 27 touchdown passes per season from 2011-18. He did not miss a single start during that stretch while helping the Lions reach the postseason in 2011, 2014 and 2016.

[Why Matthew Stafford is a Pro Football Hall of Fame lock after winning his first NFL MVP award

Douglas Clawson