St Louis Cardinals surprising some fans with their resiliency in early 2026… so far

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 07: Nathan Church #27 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates with Masyn Winn #0 after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on April 07, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It has been encouraging to see the offense win in different ways this season, whether it’s a late inning or extra inning comeback… the team cobbling together runs with small-ball tactics, and just edging out the other team; or, just scoring a lot overall. However you want to frame it, this team has just been a lot more FUN. Even if they’re not super good (yet?).

The Cardinals scored 22 runs vs the Rays, then only scored 7 runs vs the Mets (and somehow still won the series). Vs the Tigers they scored 11 runs, which is sort of more normal (but lost the series). And now they are scoring 6.5 runs vs the Nationals in the first two games of the series, feeling a bit more like the beginning to the season.

Before the season began I expected that the team would be in a lot of close games… so far, 6 of their 11 games have been relative nailbiters, close ones! Only one game I would describe as a big loss, where Detroit defeated the Cardinals 11-6 this last Saturday. Other than that, it’s been pretty exciting except when we got shut out by the Tigers the day before.

The season is still very very early, but it feels like a lot has happened already. Which has made this season a lot more interesting than the past 3, so far. The Cardinals have a chance to score another 6 or 7 runs tomorrow vs old teammate Miles Mikolas. I would think maybe more than that! But baseball is a weird sport.

Despite their winning record, admittedly, only 1 game over .500… the Cardinals are the only team in the NL Central with a negative run differential. It’s too early to worry about that, though. The Reds are tied for first with a +1 run differential. Meanwhile their counterpart the Brewers have an equally absurd run differential, going the other way, of +29, already. The Reds are on a 5 game winning streak, by the way.

The Cardinals so far can beat an over .500 team. They are better at home than on the road, so far. Probably no surprise there. Looking around the NL, the East seems much like the Central, good teams happening in both divisions, while the Dodgers are the only team from the West that seems dangerous (so far).

Did anyone have Jordan Walker as a top 10 MLB hitter by xwOBA? If you did, you’re a genius! so far at least. So what the heck is Walker good at this year and why is there such a difference? He hits the ball harder than just about anybody, he’s the hardest hitting batter in the NL. Only Ben Rice of the Yankees is hitting the ball harder than Jordan Walker.

What’s more important than that? Walker is actually connecting with the ball! His statcast Adjusted Exit Velocity leads the majors, while his whiff % isn’t a total liability. His whiff % is essentially the same as the other hard hitters, Fernando Tatis Jr is a comparison here.

Another difference from last year: Jordan Walker is actually swinging the bat! He swings almost half the time. That is far more aggressive so far than what we have become used to seeing. He seems less confused, less lost at the plate.

Where are the Cardinals in team exit velocity? Right next to the Brewers, who have had a really good offense so far. Their barrel % is actually slightly ahead of the Brewers. Their hard hit % is superior to Milwaukee though. So far. Only the Cubs are hitting the ball harder than the Cardinals in the NL Central.

Have the Cardinals been lucky or unlucky? According to expected batting average, they are underperforming what they can do. That team .222 BA becomes .240, which would be quite the improvement. This may be a pretty mediocre offense at the end of the day, but they have a lot of fight to them, and maybe some unlocked power.

Meanwhile the team we are playing now just has a better offense. The Nationals impressive offense so far might very well be for real. Good news! The Cubs offense xBA is actually looking like they might be a bit of a mirage. The Cubs have one of the worst expected team batting average in MLB.

So far some of my hunches seem pretty true. But I don’t think I expected the Cubs to be in last place at this point. It’s meaningless, but still… fun. The youth movement is in full effect. The Cubs are kinda old. You cannot quantify what hasn’t happened yet.

Pitching… what teams are getting hit the hardest? The Nationals, Brewers, Astros, Reds, Pirates, Cardinals, Tigers, White Sox, and Cubs. Marmol said the strength was going to be the pitching, but we are getting hit HARD. But not nearly as bad as the Nationals and Brewers. In the xwOBA department, ironically enough, we are the worst except for the Nationals. The Brewers improve by a lot in this area.

That said teams have been barreling up more against the Brewers and Cubs than against the Cardinals. Has this season seemed intense, though? That’s because other teams are getting on base at a .366 clip against St Louis. The Nationals have given up 100 hits so far, and the Cardinals have given up 99 hits!

I think things will cool off some vs the Cardinals pitching. It will have to, to sustain any kind of success. Cardinals starting rotation pitching is barely above replacement level so far. Hopefully that will change. And the bullpen… you know it’s been bad. Only the Royals, Cubs, Astros, and Nationals have had worse bullpen performance.

Bullpen bright spots? Riley O’Brien and JoJo Romero. George Soriano seems like he will be fine (xERA backs this up, at least). But, that makes it only 3 of 9 bullpen arms used so far that can be seen in a positive light.

As for the rotation, Dustin May has been an experiment gone horribly wrong, the opposite of what I expected. He certainly could turn it around any start now, but it’s not looking good. Richard Fitts is chomping at the bit in AAA with really good ERA and good FIP numbers (albeit less encouraging xFIP). How long will it take to move May out of the rotation if this continues?

Kyle Leahy also hasn’t been too great, but not nearly as bad as Dustin May so far. He seems a serviceable 5th arm for the rotation, at least. On the bright side, Liberatore leads the rotation with his bright and shiny 1.64 ERA, Pallante has been walking a tightrope with a 1.80 ERA, and McGreevy is leading the rotation in FIP while maintaining a 2.53 ERA. So the rotation numbers are obviously being bogged down by Dustin May’s performances so far.

Still, this is all rather meaningless… May is not the worst by xFIP in the Cardinals rotation… that dubious award goes to Andre Pallante. Outside of Liberatore and McGreevy, the whole rotation is walking too many batters, and Liberatore could probably improve there some as well.

Our “good” pitchers Liberatore, McGreevy, and Pallante all have BABIP against numbers that will most definitely be rising. Leahy’s might come down some, and May’s is just absolutely horrendous; batters are teeing off against him. Will that improve? I certainly hope so! I was hoping he might be a stealthy pickup by Bloom but dude looks like toast.

Just like last week in my April Fool’s post, these numbers are not stable. It’s impossible to draw any conclusions whatsoever right now. But, I think, it was still fun to look at. I hope you enjoyed it too. This team is young and competitive… so far. So good? Maybe not! But absolutely entertaining.

1985

The first WrestleMania happens. It was Hulk Hogan and Mr. T vs Mr Wonderful and Rowdy Roddy Piper in a tag team match as the headlining event. “New Coke” debuted and was such a failure Old Coca-Cola came back within 3 months. The first Nintendo Entertainment System was released in North America as the NES. The world population grew to 4,830,979,000. I entered my 10th year on earth at the end of ‘85.

Back To The Future dominated at the box office, as did Rambo II and Rocky IV. As a kid, I was most into the Goonies. In the underground, The Stuff was one of the most entertaining things I saw back then! It’s like if cool whip took over everything. Later in life, it resembled the gray goo theory of self-replicating nanotech machines growing exponentially. Check out The Stuff!

One of the most entertaining horror movies ever, Fright Night, was released in 1985… my brother and I almost wore out the VHS tape of that vampire flick! I still enjoy it to this day, which cannot be said for a lot of the 80s video stuff I was into back then. I watched the movie Runaway Train with my dad and thought, hey, that was no fun.

Peewee Herman started taking over the airwaves. The movie Peewee’s Big Adventure was released, which lead to a lot of fun tv watching later on. There were of course, plenty of other good movies that year, but I’m running out of time here…

In baseball this of course was a very good year for St Louis, the Cardinals going to the World Series and experiencing a heartbreaking loss due to a botched umpire call… but I prefer to remember Willie McGee batting .353 and Vince Coleman stealing 110 stolen bases in the regular season. Vince Coleman won rookie of the year and Willie McGee was the NL MVP! Willie and Ozzie both got gold gloves. Tony Larussa was the White Sox manager back then, but he was learning… while Whitey Herzog won manager of the year in the NL.

Rod Carew reached 3,000 hits in 1985, but Pete Rose broke Ty Cobb’s all-time hits record with his 4,192nd hit. At the time, only 16 players had over 3,000 hits. The Cardinals of course lost a tough 7 game World Series to the other Missouri team, the Kansas City Royals, in 1985.

Suggested Listening

• Tom Waits – ‘Rain Dogs’ honestly I wasn’t expecting two Tom Waits albums to get my album of the year back in the 80s, but this, in addition to ‘Swordfishtrombone’, are both perfect albums. That just so happen to be from the 80s. They both sound timeless, though, could be from the 70s, 80s, 90s, onward.
• Meat Puppets – ‘Up On The Sun’ I’ve always had a soft spot for this album, it’s sloppy virtuosity is just so weird to me, and it references several genres that I’m not even into, but something about it always piques my interest, maybe its overall positivity? I’m not sure what it is but I love it.
• Cecil Taylor – ‘Winged Serpent’ just an utterly fantastic free jazz album, if you’re into that kind of thing.
• The Ex – ‘Pokeherrie’ The Ex are known for being an improvisational punk band, that are super tight for being so, and can pull it off live… this album I hadn’t heard before, and I thought it was rather impressive. Words fail to describe it, as I have yet to fully absorb its sonic world… but it’s real good.
• Dead Can Dance – ‘Spleen and Ideal’ this one really caught my ear too, something about it… you’d have to hear it. Ahead of their time.
• Killing Joke – ‘Night Time’ it is sort of odd hearing Killing Joke come up with a new wave adjacent album, but they outdid many a new wave band here. Maybe a little more rocking than that genre, but it certainly reminds me of it more than any other Killing Joke album. The track “Love Like Blood” is just top-notch.
• Oingo Boingo – ‘Dead Man’s Party’ mandatory 80’s listening! Danny Elfman doesn’t disappoint here. Masterpiece.
• Kate Bush – ‘Hounds of Love’ probably my favorite Kate Bush album, but I haven’t decided yet. I like it better than the ones before, at least… she’s honed her sound at this point.
• Sade – ‘Promise’ I’m a big Sade fan, what can I say…

Special proto-thrash version of the Honorable Mention section! Raw crazy thrash metal for you, plus a proto death metal album with the guitarist of Primus… check it out!

• Possessed – ‘Seven Churches’ some OG death metal right here! Larry Lalonde of Primus played guitar on this, and yeah Les Claypool tried out for Metallica once. But Ler is the real metalhead. You wouldn’t really know it from his guitar playing in Primus, though.
• Sacrilege – ‘Beyond The Realms of Madness’ what a find, had never heard of this band before but it’s like punk thrash! such attitude… such bad cover art.
• Razor – ‘Evil Invaders’ speaking of bad cover art, this is even worse, maybe? crazy unheard of speed metal meets thrash, though!
• Slayer – ‘Hell Awaits’ crazy blackened thrash energies!
• Destruction – ‘Infernal Overkill’ more early extreme metal insanity!
• Dark Angel – ‘We Have Arrived’ another true early thrash classic. Pretty good!

Ok that’s all I got for this week, thanks for reading, VEB.