The college football fan's guide to this year's NFL draft: Top schools, trends, more

If you're a college football fan who turned off the TV the moment the confetti fell on Indiana's College Football Playoff national title, here's your reminder that the NFL draft is fast-approaching.

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza will almost certainly go No. 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders. After that, the draft fun begins.

What do you need to know before the picks start coming off the board April 23? We have you covered with the college teams that will be big factors as well as trends and projections.

Schools that will dominate the draft

1. Ohio State: You would have to go back to 1967 to find the last time a college program had four players selected in the top 10 picks (Michigan State), according to ESPN Research. This class of Buckeyes has a chance to join those 1967 Spartans, though. Safety Caleb Downs, linebacker Sonny Styles, edge rusher/linebacker Arvell Reese and receiver Carnell Tate could all be selected before the Miami Dolphins are on the clock at No. 11. But the Buckeyes' control of the draft doesn't stop there. Defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, cornerback Davison Igbinosun and tight end Max Klare could go in the top 75, and in all, Ohio State projects to have as many as 12 players drafted.

2. Miami: After their best season under coach Mario Cristobal, it's no surprise that the Hurricanes are loaded with NFL talent. Offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa and edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are likely to be drafted in the top 20. It has been almost 20 years since Miami had three players taken in Round 1 (2007). Miami has plenty of talent projected outside of the first round, too, as quarterback Carson Beck, cornerback Keionte Scott and offensive tackle Markell Bell are potential Day 2 picks. NFL teams have also been complimentary of the Canes' Day 3 talent with safety Jakobe Thomas, interior lineman Anez Cooper and receiver CJ Daniels getting draft buzz. The Hurricanes might have up to 11 players selected.

3. Texas A&M: Plenty of talent was on display in College Station last season. Receiver KC Concepcion, edge rusher Cashius Howell and guard Chase Bisontis are potential first-round prospects, but the Aggies have a lot of other players in the trenches who are likely to be selected at some point. Offensive linemen Trey Zuhn III and Ar'maj Reed-Adams, as well as defensive tackles Tyler Onyedim and Albert Regis, are likely middle-round targets. The Aggies project to have somewhere in the range of 11 players drafted. (Per ESPN Research, Texas A&M has never had more than 10 players taken in a single draft, which happened in 1976.)

4. Indiana: In one of the biggest program turnarounds in college football history, the Hoosiers' 16-0 national championship team was loaded with NFL talent throughout the roster. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the presumed No. 1 pick to the Las Vegas Raiders and would be the program's first prospect selected in Round 1 since Thomas Lewis in 1994 (ESPN Research). He's not the school's only projected first-rounder, though; Omar Cooper Jr. should go in Round 1, and he will be the first Hoosiers receiver drafted since 2014 (Cody Latimer). And even though cornerback D'Angelo Ponds is 5-foot-9 and 182 pounds, NFL teams will overlook his size and likely take him before the end of Round 3. The Hoosiers could have as many as 12 players selected.

5. Oregon: The Ducks could have up to three players in Round 1. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq and safety Dillon Thieneman are good bets, and guard Emmanuel Pregnon could hear his name called. Oregon will likely have a good Day 3 at the draft, too. Scouts have raved about linebacker Bryce Boettcher and cornerback Jadon Canady, and guard Alex Harkey and offensive tackle Isaiah World will also likely be drafted in the middle rounds. -- Jordan Reid

College trends that play into the draft

Major programs as finishing schools. Life with NIL money and free movement through the transfer portal has been great for athletes looking for vertical integration. It's less great if you enjoy underdog draft stories. The days of Central Michigan or Western Michigan producing two top-five picks in five years (Eric Fisher and Corey Davis) might be in the rearview; mid-major schools produced an average of 2.8 first-rounders between 2014 and 2022 but managed just three in the past three drafts. Potential first-rounders Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo), Keylan Rutledge (Middle Tennessee) and Cashius Howell (Bowling Green) all began their careers at mid-major schools, but only one (McNeil-Warren) finished there. Meanwhile, up to eight other potential first-rounders, including Fernando Mendoza, began at Pac-12, ACC or Big 12 schools and finished in the SEC or Big Ten, and others, such as Dillon Thieneman (Purdue to Oregon) moved up the ladder within a given conference.

No one's plumping up their passing stats with heavy tempo anymore. Until 2025, the last time major college football produced just one 4,000 yard passer was the 2000 season. Kliff Kingsbury and Drew Brees were among those who fell short of that mark. But after the sport produced an average of 6.9 4,000-yarders from 2011 to 2024 (not including 2020), only North Texas' Drew Mestemaker topped that mark this past fall. Mendoza needed 16 games just to top 3,500. Between changes in clock rules and the fact that defenses have adjusted to the Mach-speed tempo that college offenses started deploying a decade ago, passing numbers have grown far less extreme in the mid-2020s, and stat lines are less likely to jump off the page. Temper your expectations accordingly.

The running back trends. Since 2018, only three running backs have been selected with top-10 picks; all three of them proved to be strong pros, and none of them actually made the team that drafted them more successful. Saquon Barkley (No. 2 in 2018) produced more than 1,200 yards from scrimmage four times in six years with the New York Giants, who won more than six games just once in those four great seasons. Bijan Robinson (No. 8 in 2023) has averaged 1,883 yards from scrimmage in three seasons, and the Atlanta Falcons have continued to go either 7-10 or 8-9 every year as they did before they picked him. Ashton Jeanty (No. 6 in 2025) went for 1,321 yards as the Raiders fell from 4-13 to 3-14. With the absurdly talented Jeremiyah Love likely going in the top 10 this season, will it remain a similar story? Or will he be able to turn a draft luxury position into an actual difference-maker again? -- Bill Connelly

Where the biggest college football stars will go

Draft analyst Matt Miller looked at ESPN's CFB Player Rank from the end of the 2025 season, picked out the players from the top 10 who are in this draft class and tried to figure out when each prospect will come off the board. We're skipping Fernando Mendoza, though; we know he's going No. 1.

David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech: Arizona Cardinals at No. 3

Bailey led the nation with 14.5 sacks last season, his first as a full-time starter after transferring from Stanford, and he has the type of quickness off the corner that traditionally leads to production in the pros. Josh Sweat is entrenched on one edge in Arizona, but the Cardinals could replace Baron Browning on the other side.

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame: Tennessee Titans at No. 4

The No. 1 player on my draft board, Love is a dynamic, do-it-all running back who could immediately boost Tennessee's offense. He is comparable as a prospect to Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson when they entered the NFL. Love, who is just 20 years old, scored 42 touchdowns in college. That's the type of burst and productivity the Titans' offense is lacking and the type of running mate Cam Ward needs as he develops into a franchise quarterback.

Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami: Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9

The Chiefs don't normally love short-armed pass rushers, but because the team is rarely in position to draft a blue-chip prospect, it should be willing to overlook the sub-31-inch arm length of Bain. His powerful pass rush would open up more one-on-one opportunities for Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. Bain, a three-year starter in college, had 20.5 sacks in his 36 starts and has the type of consistency in his pass-rush production that Kansas City needs on the edge. No defensive player made a bigger impact in the College Football Playoff than Bain.

Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State: Dallas Cowboys at No. 12

Downs is universally loved in this class by scouts, coaches and media alike. He's a high-character leader in the secondary who produced as a true freshman for Nick Saban's defense at Alabama before transferring to Ohio State and winning a national title. Downs would immediately solve the Cowboys' need for a versatile safety who can be a playmaker (six career interceptions) while also being a quarterback of the defense alongside Malik Hooker and Jalen Thompson.

Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M: Buffalo Bills at No. 26

The Bills lost AJ Epenesa and Joey Bosa in free agency and Bradley Chubb, 30, has questions surrounding his health. Buffalo needs another rusher, and Howell was consistently productive off the edge at Texas A&M and is a viable speed rusher who produced 11 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss last season. A stand-up rusher in college, Howell's first-step quickness would be welcomed in Buffalo, where the two existing starters off the edge are larger, longer and more powerful rushers.

Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech: New York Jets at No. 33

Rodriguez is a three-down playmaker who produced in every phase of the game. In 2025 alone, he posted 128 tackles, four interceptions and seven forced fumbles. He won the four major awards that a front-seven player can win -- the Bednarik, Lombardi, Nagurski and Butkus trophies. The Jets have Jamien Sherwood and 37-year-old Demario Davis but have a need for a future starter after Davis hangs up his cleats. Rodriguez has proven to be the type of highly productive player who could step right into an NFL starting lineup.

Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt: UDFA

Pavia is a talented gamer with a penchant for big plays, as the 24-year-old was the Heisman runner-up thanks to his 29 touchdowns and 4,401 yards of total offense. But his lack of ideal measurables at 5-foot-10 and 207 pounds might keep him from being selected in the 2026 draft. Pavia's aggressive, carefree style is great for SportsCenter but raises concerns about durability at the next level. A team could take a swing on him late in the draft, but it would take the right ecosystem for his confident style to be a fit. -- Miller

The FCS prospects you should know

WR Bryce Lance, North Dakota State. The younger brother of 2021 No. 3 pick Trey, this Lance was too much to handle, from both size and speed perspectives, for FCS defenders. Over two seasons as NDSU's go-to guy, he caught a combined 126 passes for 2,150 yards (17.1 per catch) and 25 touchdowns. He threw in a 75-yard touchdown run as a senior, too.

QB Cole Payton, North Dakota State. He was one of the most athletic quarterbacks at the NFL Combine, and he produced better stats than either of NDSU's two semi-recent first-round passers (Carson Wentz, Trey Lance). As a senior, Payton threw for 2,719 yards with a 72% completion rate and rushed for 777 yards and 13 scores.

QB Derek Robertson, Monmouth. In only 19 games as Monmouth's starting QB (his 2025 season was cut short by injury), Robertson threw for 6,419 yards and 58 touchdowns; he topped 300 yards 13 times, reached 500 yards twice and threw for at least four scores eight times. He can sling it. -- Connelly

College football storylines that will affect the 2027 NFL draft

Jeremiah Smith is the best receiver prospect since ... I'll go with Marvin Harrison Jr., who came out of Ohio State in 2024. Smith has turned heads since Week 1 of his true freshman season, when he caught six passes for two touchdowns against Akron. Since then, he has posted 11 games with at least 100 receiving yards and scored 27 touchdowns in just 29 games. Smith is a prototypical X receiver at 6-foot-3 and 223 pounds, with a physique that's close to Julio Jones, to whom Smith compares favorably. Smith will rank alongside Jones and Harrison as the top wide receiver prospects of the past 20 years and should excite teams atop the board. -- Miller

What does Arch Manning need to improve on? Considering his obvious athleticism and running ability, the Texas QB's biggest weakness is a strange one: He can't throw accurately on the run. That's obvious from certain highlights -- such as when he nearly missed a ridiculously open Ryan Wingo in the end zone against Texas A&M -- but it shows up in the stats, too. Among QBR-eligible passers in 2025, Manning ranked just 94th in completion rate (48.6%) and 75th in catchable ball rate on the move. He ranked just 82nd in completion percentage outside the pocket (49.2%), too. His decision-making improved as the year went on, and he ranked first nationally in Total QBR from November onward, but his technique still falters when he goes off script. -- Connelly

Which QBs will rise up draft boards before April 2027? Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker and NC State's CJ Bailey. Mestemaker never started a varsity game in high school but elected to take a walk-on spot with head coach Eric Morris at North Texas. In his first year as a starter, Mestemaker finished with 4,379 passing yards, 34 TDs and 9 interceptions. After following Morris to Oklahoma State, Mestemaker is a signal-caller to keep an eye on. I'm also excited to watch Bailey. With impressive size at 6-foot-6 and 210 pounds, he has easy arm strength to access throws to all levels of the field. He had an impressive 2025 campaign, finishing with 3,105 passing yards, 25 TDs and 9 interceptions. He added another 215 yards and 9 scores on the ground. Bailey must play better against high-quality opponents, but he has the potential to rise up boards very quickly. -- Reid