Betting buzz: Men's Final Four features tightest spreads on record

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Men's Final Four features tightest spreads on record

By Doug Greenberg

The men's Final Four will feature two of the tightest spreads in its history when it gets underway Saturday.

As of Friday morning, Illinois is -1.5 (-115) over UConn and Michigan is -1.5 (-108) against Arizona, according to DraftKings odds. Assuming those lines hold until tip-off, it would be the first time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that both national semifinals had spreads of two or less, per ESPN Research.

At open, Circa Sports race & sportsbook manager Chase Michaelson told ESPN that the handicap of the Wildcats and Wolverines was "as close as it can get." That sentiment is holding true among bettors as well: At BetMGM, Michigan's spread has 51% of the bets and handle, while at DraftKings, it's a completely even 50-50 split on tickets.

In the other contest, UConn-Illinois needed some market correction to reach its tight line. DraftKings opened with the Huskies as 1.5-point underdogs and immediately took action on the Fighting Illini, forcing a move up to 2.5. From there, the sportsbook got buyback on UConn, bringing the spread back down.

"They're still drawing interest," DraftKings director of sports operations Johnny Avello said over email. "UConn is always a popular team in March -- people know Dan Hurley and believe in this group, especially after last week's comeback win over Duke." According to ESPN Research, Hurley is 17-1 against the spread across the last four tournaments.

The Huskies' spread has garnered 57% of the wagers and 55% of the money at DraftKings, as well as a majority of the bets (64%) and handle (56%) on the moneyline of +110. BetMGM has seen some solid action backing the Illini, but characterized the spread movement as "a market move."

Complicating the matter for both programs is the sports betting laws in their home states: In both Connecticut and Illinois, bettors are not permitted to bet on games involving college sports teams from the state. In Connecticut, bettors are allowed to bet on CT college teams' futures in a tournament, but only before the action gets underway; not so in Illinois.

For 2026, this also figures heavily into the women's side, where UConn has been a favorite all tournament and is getting 6.5 points against South Carolina in the Final Four. The lack of Connecticut bettors hasn't stopped the Huskies from racking up substantial action, with 87% of the handle backing their spread for Friday night.

March 27: Women's favorite spreads are historically large for regional semis

By Doug Greenberg

The 1-seeds in the NCAA women's basketball tournament -- UConn (-250), UCLA (+475), South Carolina (+800) and Texas (+800) -- have continued to separate themselves from the field in the futures markets. As action gets back underway in the regionals, the former three will be in rare territory for their round-of-16 games.

UConn is a 29.5-point favorite for its game against North Carolina, UCLA is -18.5 against Minnesota, and South Carolina shows -17.5 against Oklahoma on Saturday. These are tied for or exceed the largest spreads in the Sweet 16 or later since at least 2021, according to ESPN Research betting data that covers that time frame.

The Gamecocks and Huskies have been in this position before, showing -17.5 in this round in 2024 and 2025, and 2021, respectively. Only UConn covered the spread in those games.

In general, double-digit favorites in the regional semifinals or later are 14-4 straight up, but 6-12 against the spread since 2021. South Carolina is 2-7 ATS in this position, while UConn is 2-3 ATS; UCLA has never been this large a favorite at this stage over that time period.

The Bruins' and Gamecocks' spreads have come down a bit from their heights of -19.5 and -18.5, respectively. On the other hand, the Huskies' spread has ballooned from its opener of -27.5.

UConn is, perhaps unsurprisingly, garnering a ton of action at sportsbooks, recording the most tickets and second-most handle of any team at BetMGM on Friday, as well as 85% of the handle split at DraftKings. UCLA and South Carolina are also attracting a healthy split of wagers and money at DraftKings, but BetMGM reports that Oklahoma to cover +17.5 against SC is actually one of its most-backed spreads of the day.

March 26: Tournament's opening rounds featured few upsets as power conferences dominate

The NCAA men's basketball tournament has featured historic point spreads, enlarged margins of victory and only a handful of upsets, continuing a trend of dominance by the power conferences.

The average point spread in the first round climbed to a record 13.6, an approximately 58% increase since the 2023 tournament, according to ESPN Research. The average margin of victory in the round of 64 was a record 17.4 points, up 47.4% from the 2023 tournament.

Six underdogs pulled outright upsets in the opening round, the fewest since 2007. No. 12 seed High Point earned the largest upset, stunning 5-seed Wisconsin as a 10.5-point underdog. None of the other five favorites that lost Thursday -- Ohio State, North Carolina, Saint Mary's, Georgia and BYU -- were favored by more than three points.

Favorites went 16-0 straight up in last Friday's games. It was the first time favorites won every game in a single day in the opening round since 1992, but it didn't lead to a hot streak for the betting public. Sportsbooks told ESPN that they actually had a winning day Friday, despite the run of favorites.

"There were some square 'dogs that the public loved," one bookmaker said.

"We had a huge a day," another bookmaker added.

The playing field leveled to a degree in the round of 32. The average point spread in second-round games was 7.6, the largest since the 2001 tournament.

None of the non-power conference teams that advanced in the opening round survived the second round, leaving a Sweet 16 consisting of all power conference teams for a second straight year. Prior to the last two years, at least one team from a non-power conference had reached the Sweet 16 in every tournament in the modern era. Additionally, only one double-digit seed has reached the round of 16 in four straight tournaments.

There was at least one surprise in the second round, though. Iowa, a 10.5-point underdog, upset defending champion Florida, becoming only the second 9-seed to beat a 1-seed in the past 12 tournaments.

But overall, the divide between the power conferences and everyone else appears to be growing.

March 23: No more perfect men's brackets after record 43-0 run; 166 left on women's side

By Sachin Chandan

History was made in the ESPN Men's Tournament Challenge on Sunday, as one user broke the game's record for the longest undefeated start.

Two perfect brackets emerged 40-0 after Saturday's tournament action, from users Mini-me-2448 and christienter, who then had the same picks for Sunday's first two games. After wins by Purdue and Iowa State, both brackets reached 42-0, matching the previous ESPN Men's Tournament Challenge record. But only one could break the record, as the two users had opposite picks in the St. John's-Kansas matchup. St. John's buzzer-beating layup gave christienter the win and the ESPN record at 43-0 to start the tournament.

However, the perfect run would last only 59 minutes longer, as Virginia lost to Tennessee, leaving no more perfect brackets.

Chances are you're not christienter, and your bracket lost much earlier and many more times. But just because your bracket was busted by Texas (or Iowa, or High Point, or VCU) doesn't mean the fun has to stop. ESPN Men's Tournament Challenge Second Chance allows you to pick up your bracket from the Sweet 16 onward and pick the remaining 15 games.

You can also give it a second try on the women's side, where 166 perfect brackets remain after three days of action. They are all chasing the ESPN Women's Tournament Challenge record of 57-0, set last season.

For those giving it another go, the best part is you can browse the takeaways from Sunday's action, which ended with a thriller between Washington and TCU, and apply your knowledge toward the next round, starting at the conclusion of Monday's action.

You can find all of Monday's women's tournament action on ESPN and ESPN2 starting at noon ET.

More: Men's tournament odds | Women's tournament odds

March 20: Tourney favorite UConn among four favored by 50-plus in women's first round

By Doug Greenberg

The UConn Huskies lost a slight amount of steam since Selection Sunday, moving from -270 to -265, but they'll still be the big favorite to win a record-extending 13th national championship as the women's tournament gets underway. Their future odds going into the fray are the shortest since 2018, which was also the last time UConn was favored to win it all.

That said, despite the perceived chalkiness of the women's game, odds-on lines are not an automatic indicator of success. Three of the past four odds-on national title favorites coming into the tournament ultimately failed to win it all, which includes the last two occasions that the Huskies were in this position.

So, who could conceivably knock them off for college basketball's ultimate prize? One-seeds UCLA (+550), Texas (+700) or South Carolina (+800) are the most likely candidates, none of whom have seen any odds movement since Selection Sunday. LSU notably lengthened from 14-1 to 16-1 over that time period, while Vanderbilt (50-1), Duke (75-1) and Michigan (80-1) all held pat and round out the teams better than 100-1.

Bookmakers note that the top five teams are virtually the only ones receiving any kind of significant action from the betting public, though Caesars college basketball trader Patrick Berbert notes some fliers on Vanderbilt, given the long odds as a 2-seed. Still, it has mostly been the UConn and UCLA show.

"This has been a tale of two halves for the year," Berbert told ESPN. "UConn took the money the whole way up until the conference tournaments started, and then UCLA dominated their conference tournament over in the Big Ten and they took most of the money... Now we're going to be actually rooting for UConn to cut down the nets here, where [before] it was the other way around."

The Huskies and Bruins account for over 50% of the national championship handle at BetMGM, but the Gamecocks, with their slightly longer accounts, are actually the sportsbook's largest ticket holder.

DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello says Connecticut appears to be returning to its dynastic form, explaining its popularity with the public, as well as its eye-popping 54.5-point spread over UTSA in the first round. "[In the past,] UConn just had to win the game by 30, which was a given," he said.

Enormous spreads in the first round of the women's tournament are nothing new, but they're getting even larger with the upswing in elite teams. According to ESPN Research, UConn -54.5 is the second-largest spread in the past five years, just below South Carolina -55.5 against Presbyterian in 2024. However, in that time period, that SC spread had been the only one over 50; in the 2026 tournament's first round alone, there are four such lines.

"The model gets weaker as you get into these higher numbers, these higher spreads," Patrick Glose, the sportsbook director at the Ocean Casino Resort in Atlantic City, told ESPN. "At the end of the day though, we're a market, so we're using the wisdom of the crowd. There are people whose job is to follow the women's game and bet the women's game, so we're tracking what they're doing. We'll post a line, see how it gets a reaction from these sharper bettors and adjust accordingly."

While those big-money bettors gladly snap up those larger spreads at open, casual bettors tend to gravitate toward the tighter spreads and money lines, according to bookmakers. Glose also notes that in-play betting tends get a lot of attention, especially at an in-person book like his.

While the women's tournament isn't expected to put up the immense handle numbers it did during the Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese and Paige Bueckers years, the bookmakers note that the average amount of money in the market has reached a higher equilibrium than it did before those players graced the court. They also say that regular-season betting has seen a big increase in recent years due to the growth of the women's game.

March 19: Tracking odds movement to begin the men's NCAA tournament

By Doug Greenberg

The chalk will be the main topic of conversation as the men's NCAA basketball tournament gets underway.

Duke remains the favorite to win the 2026 tournament but has lengthened to +360 from +330 on Selection Sunday, putting the Blue Devils just ahead of Michigan (+370) and Arizona (+380), who lengthened and shortened, respectively, since Sunday. Florida rounds out the 1-seeds at +750, a move from +700.

Houston (12-1), Iowa State (18-1) and Illinois (22-1) saw their odds worsen in early tournament futures betting, but by far the biggest positive movers have been Purdue and UConn: The Boilermakers were 30-1 and the Huskies were 35-1 on Selection Sunday, but both squads now sit at 25-1.

Each team has received substantial support from bettors, with Purdue garnering a $100,000 wager to make the Final Four at BetMGM, making the school one of the sportsbook's largest liabilities. Caesars Sportsbook college basketball trader Patrick Berbert told ESPN that UConn also received a lot of support early in the season for the national championship and that the Boilermakers got some action when they were 50-1 prior to the Big Ten tournament.

That said, 1-seeds Arizona, Michigan and Florida have also been named as liabilities with the major books, providing some futures variety, even if just within the top nine teams.

"Overall, it's been pretty much a great balance throughout the year," Berbert said. "Whether teams went on their runs or cooled off, it kind of balanced everything out, which is pretty enjoyable to see that so many people have different options to bet on. The top has separated itself, but there's just not one purely dominant team that is catching the bettors' eyes."

Along those lines, the first-round spreads have been benefiting the top seeds in a noticeable way. All of the 1- and 2-seeds -- and even some of the 3-seeds -- are at least 20-point favorites for their first-round games. DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello said he couldn't recall a time when the 1- and 2-seeds had spreads this high in the opening round.

Further, every one of those teams has increased the spread since the opening of betting and, in some cases, by as many as three points, largely due to bettor support. Houston, for example, has received 87% of the bets and handle at DraftKings, pushing the school from -22.5 to -23.5 against Idaho. At BetMGM, Duke -27.5 is getting the fourth-most spread bets by handle.

"It's been extremely chalk-heavy. Just the line movement in these games is something that we really haven't seen before," Berbert said. "The bettors are saying that the chalk is better than it's ever been."