Bitcoin stalls below key resistance as analysts clash over next move

The crypto market remains pinned just below its early-February ceiling, with bitcoin BTC$71,377.41 hovering at $71,200 and ether (ETH) trading at $2,185. The sideways crawl comes despite a risk-on boost from the recent US-Iran ceasefire, leaving analysts sharply divided on the next leg.

Bloomberg's Mike McGlone said this week that BTC needs to reclaim $75,000 or risk a meltdown to $10,000. Fundstrat Tom Lee has taken a contrasting view, claiming that the "bottom is in" on Wednesday, although it's worth noting that his fund holds $10.4 billion worth of ETH.

BTC is up by around 0.3% since midnight UTC while ETH is flat having outperformed the broader market on Wednesday, and while BTC has posted a modest gain, all eyes remain on whether this range-bound stability is a launchpad or a trap.

Derivatives positioning

• Bitcoin's futures open interest (OI) has increased to 726,000 BTC, a one-week high, bouncing sharply from 693,000 BTC over the weekend. The tally has increased by over 1% in the past 24 hours, a sign of continued capital inflows despite spot price's stalled ascent.
• BTC's 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains positive for the second straight day and perpetual funding rates hover just above zero. These datasets, coupled with OI increase, suggests a persistent bias for bullish plays.
• OI in ether, XRP and solana futures has also increased by 1% to 2%. However, CVD and funding rates for these tokens are slightly negative, which suggests growing demand for bearish bets.
• CVD readings for top meme coins like DOGE and SHIB remain negative – a signal some see as constructive for the broader market, as heavy bullish positioning in speculative tokens is often viewed as a sign of excess froth.
• Bitcoin and ether volatility indices continue to decline in a sign of market calm. 10x Research said the market is pricing just 2.5% swing in either direction on the back of Friday's inflation data.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH continue to show a mild bias for put options, which offer downside protection, although its much weaker than a week ago. Speaking of flows, the $80,000 bitcoin call has seen the biggest increase in number of open positions in the past 24 hours followed by the $82,000 call.

Token talk

• The altcoin market continued to impress on Thursday with the likes of MANA and AERO rising by 6% apiece, while decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens MORPHO and PENDLE rose by 3.7% and 2.7% respectively since midnight UTC.
• It's worth noting that MANA's move comes alongside a 25% increase in open interest, suggesting the move was backed by leverage as opposed to spot buying.
• The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) and CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC) were the best performing benchmarks on Thursday, posting gains between 0.4% and 0.5% while the broader CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is unchanged.
• Traders will be keeping a close on on whether bitcoin can break above $75,000 and establish a level of support, which would likely lead to a period of capital rotation into altcoins, many of which are still oversold following a selloff in February and subsequent period of consolidation.