UFC 327’s best betting props, parlays and picks |Prochazka vs. Ulberg

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 04: Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic reacts to his knockout of Khalil Rountree Jr. in a light heavyweight fight during the UFC 320 event at T-Mobile Arena on October 04, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC) | Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC 327 is live this weekend (Sat., April 11, 2026) at Kaseya Center in Miami, Fl. and broadcast on Paramount+. This is will be the most stacked PLE of the Paramount+ era to date, even with one of its title fights falling by the wayside.

The main event is soon to be father Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight title. That belt is available after Alex Pereira said he’d rather fight Ciryl Gane on the White House lawn than defend it.

The co-main event is Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa, in Borrachinha’s first real debut in the Light Heavyweight division. He’ll have his hands full there, with the 16-0 Russian KO machine.

UFC 327’s main card is rounded out by Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit, Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker and Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr.

The featured “Prelim” this weekend is Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico. The “Prelims” also have Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown and Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 327 Main Card Money Line Odds

Jiri Prochazka (-120) vs. Carlos Ulberg (+100)

Prochakza’s shot at the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight title comes after his mythic victory over Khalil Rountree at UFC 320 last October (see it here). That amazing comeback win earned him both the Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night awards. That was Prochazka’s second win a row, having finished Jamahal Hill back in January, 2025 (see it here). Prochazka’s only losses since 2015 are to Alex Pereira.

Ulberg was stunned by Kennedy Nzechukwu in his debut back in 2021, losing by second round TKO. All he’s done is win since then, though. He’s notched nine wins in UFC with six stoppages. Last time out he dropped Dominick Reyes. Before that he took cautious decisions over Jan Blackowicz and Volkan Oezdemir.

To get straight to the point, I’m picking Prochazka here. And I don’t know if I have a good reason why. The man just has ‘aura’, as the kid’s say. It just feels like this is a moment that Prochazka will seize upon, even if he has to suffer to do so.

Prochazka is a special character in MMA and he seems capable of willing himself to victory. We’ve seen him get in a hole, a few times, and just mentally break himself out of that funk and go forwards with almost supernatural levels of endurance and violence.

Ulberg, on the other hand, just seems like a nice fighter. He’s a great striker and has a lot of size and athleticism. And he fights a smart game. In his toughest match-ups to date, against Blachowicz and Oezdemir, he fought with intelligence and a lot of caution. That helped him get his title shot, but I don’t think that will get him the title against a man like the Last Samurai.

On paper, Ulberg’s stats look better than Prochazka’s. But you have to consider the difference in their levels of competition and also the intangibles around Prochazka, which I mentioned earlier.

I think we’re due for a fire fight in this contest, with Prochazka going forwards and Ulberg sitting back looking for a counter shot. If that happens, it will be interesting to see whether Ulberg hurt’s Prochazka and then puts him down or if he hurts him and merely unleashes Prochazka’s final form.

I’ve really fallen in love with the narrative of this fight, so I might not be seeing things as clearly as normal. But even so, I want to stake my money with Prochazka and back him here.

Best bet: Jiri Prochazka moneyline (-120)

Curtis Blaydes (-135) vs. Josh Hokit (+114)

Blaydes got his hand raised opposite Rizvan Kuniev in June, though he should have probably lost that split decision. That was his first fight since he was steamrolled by Tom Aspinall in July, 2024 (see it here) for the interim UFC Heavyweight title. Blaydes’ other recent wins are his TKO over Jailton Almeida, in a fight he was losing, and his win over Aspinall (which was due to Aspinall blowing out his knee).

Hokit has been fast tracked up the UFC rankings after his quick wins over Denzel Freeman and Max Gimenis. His advancement might be due, in part, to his budget Colby Covington act.

I think we’re currently watching the decline of Blaydes. He’s 2-2 in his last four. However, when you throw out the split decision he should have lost to Kuniev and the freak injury in the first Aspinall fight, the only win he’s had in that period was his victory over Almeida (a fight he was getting beat up in). His losses are both first round stoppages to Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. Blaydes’ last totally convincing win was in 2022, over Chris Daukaus.

As repellent as Hokit’s personality may be, I have to admit that he is a blue chip Heavyweight prospect. The former NFL man moves with a lot of speed and athleticism, something seldom seen in the Heavyweight ranks. Physically, he has all the tools to be a top ranked Heavyweight and part of the “Heavyweights who can actually fight well” club.

I think he’s due a big coming out party this weekend, which will likely include another cringy Macho Man impression on the mic.

I’m feeling this way because Blaydes’ has been stopped plenty of times with strikes. All five of his pro losses are due to strikes. His best defense against them is his wrestling. However, Hokit has shown he’s pretty good on the mat so far. I think Hokit is going to be too fast and strong to fall victim to Blaydes’ concrete blanket and that means he’ll have lots of opportunities to land power shots.

Best bet: Josh Hokit moneyline (+114)

Dominick Reyes (-135) vs. Johnny Walker (+114)

Reyes would have been in the main event tonight had he not lost to Carlos Ulberg last September. Reyes lost his chance for a second title fight after going down to a one-two in the first round (see it here). He’d won three straight before then, with stoppages of Nikita Krylov, Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby.

Walker defied his critics last year, surprising red hot prospect Zhang Mingyang with a second round TKO (see it here). Walker was a +300 underdog in that fight. It came after back-to-back KO losses to Volkan Oezdemir and Magomed Ankalaev.

I poured cold water on Reyes’ hot streak before his title eliminator and I’ll do that again here. The win over Jacoby was impressive, but he fought Smith on a night where Smith wept on his way to the cage. Lionheart had just suffered the death of his coach and close friend and was in no shape to fight. And Krylov was returning from a two year absence.

When you consider those caveats, Reyes’ recent form isn’t nearly as impressive as it is on paper and that was exposed by Ulberg.

I think there’s a chance that happens again. Walker is a long way from Ulberg, but he’s lively and not afraid to attack. I still have questions about Reyes’ durability, so I think there’s a chance Walker gets through to him and scores his second stoppage in a row.

Walker will have five inches of reach advantage to help him in that endeavor.

Best bet: Johnny Walker moneyline (+114)

Azamat Murzakanov (-198) vs. Paulo Costa (+164)

Murzakanov has looked brutally effective in UFC thus far. He’s won his first six fights and finished them all, except for a decision win he took over Dustin Jacoby. Last time out he KO’d Aleksandar Rakic with a jab (see it here). Other victims include Brendson Ribeiro and Alonzo Menifield.

Costa is back at Light Heavyweight for this bout. His last fight was a unanimous decision over Roman Kopylov in July. He had to pull out of a fight with Brunno Fereira in March. He’s fought six times since 2020 and is 2-4, with high profile losses to Sean Strickland, Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya.

This should be Murzakanov’s fight to lose. I have questions over how Costa will look at Light Heavyweight, not so much due to his physique, but just because I don’t know how well is he going to train without the discipline that comes with the threat of a weight cut down to 185. Costa has a great chin, but, again, I don’t know what that’s going to look like at Light Heavyweight, where guys can crush.

Murzakanov seems to possess ungodly power. Costa absorbs a ridiculous 6.2 sig. strikes a minute and has only 49 percent defense on sig. strikes. If he keeps those numbers at Light Heavyweight, he’s going to end a few fights looking up at the lights, not knowing what happened.

I really like Murzakanov’s chances of being just the second man to finish Costa. Murzakanov by TKO/KO is +200. I’m going to take him minus the points, though, for a little insurance.

Best bet: Azamat Murzakanov -3.5 (-105)

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Cub Swanson (+102) vs. Nate Landwehr (+114)

Due to Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van needing to be rebooked, Swanson’s retirement fight has been promoted to the main card at UFC 327. This is scheduled to be Swanson’s 35th career bout and his 26th in the Octagon. The 42 year-old has been competitive in his late career, going win-loss-win-loss since 2019. He won his last fight, over Billy Quarantillo, by KO in December, 2024 (see it here).

Landwehr is on a two fight losing skid. Last time out he was TKO’d by Morgan Charriere (see it here). Before that he was dominated, and stopped, by Doo Ho Choi (see it here). When he first joined UFC, Landwehr scored wins over Ludovit Klein and David Onama.

Landwher feels like a tailor made opponent for Swanson to fight (and beat) before he rides off into the sunset. These two are probably going to brawl it out and get the fans on their feet.

In that situation I favor Swanson’s technique over Landwehr’s aggression. I like Landwehr, but I think Swanson will be able to catch him too many times coming in.

Swanson’s age would concern me if he didn’t look so good against Quarantillo in his last fight. And Landwehr is no spring chicken himself. He’s 37.

So give me Swanson to get his Chiesa moment in the Kaseya Center.

Best bet: Cub Swanson moneyline (+102)

UFC 327 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Patricio Pitbull (+270) vs. Aaron Pico (-340)

It’s hard to know who is being trolled with this match-up. Is it Pitbull, Pico, us or everyone?

After spending almost all his career in Bellator, Pitbull landed in the Octagon with a terrible unanimous decision loss to Yair Rodriguez almost exactly a year ago. He followed that up with a largely comfortable decision win over Dan Ige in July. He’s been on the sidelines since then, perhaps frozen out because he refused to fight an overweight Losene Keita in September.

Fellow Bellator vet Pico started his UFC career with a loss, too. He was looking good against Lerone Murphy before getting obliterated with a spinning elbow (see it here). That was in August. That was the fourth KO/TKO loss of Pico’s 18 fight career.

I’m not going to overthink this one. Pitbull is 39 in a few months. Pico, though he’s got some wear and tear on him, is in his prime at 29. Pico is also a lot bigger, with a three inch reach advantage.

Pico’s wrestling had Murphy in a lot of trouble early on in that fight. I think he’s going to have even more success when wrestling against the aging Pitbull. And I don’t think Pitbull can uncork a massive fight ending strike like Murphy did.

The round total is set at 1.5. That’s a little curious. I think Pitbull is washed, but I also think he’s a tough out. And if Pico is going to look to just ground him and guarantee his first UFC win, then he might take a cautious position over submission approach for fifteen minutes.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-188)

Mateusz Gamrot (-180) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+150)

Gamrot’s status as a dark horse Lightweight contender has fallen apart since his split decision loss to Dan Hooker, his uninspiring win over Ludovit Klein and a submission loss to Charles Oliveira (see it here). Before that he was 7-2 in UFC action, including a very questionable decision over Arman Tsarukyan.

Ribovics had one of the fights of the year in 2024, going toe-to-toe with Daniel Zellhuber for a split decision win at Sphere. He failed to capitalize on that big win, though, due to a lack of activity. He’s fought only twice since then, dropping an exciting split decision to Nasrat Haqparast and then winning an exciting unanimous decision over Elves Brener.

This is a really interesting fight. We’ve got a relentless wrestler versus a relentless volume striker and two guys who, at times, struggle to seal the deal.

Gamrot’s wrestling game fell apart after Hooker was able to tag him a few times. If Ribovics is landing early and often, I can see that happening again. I thought there was a risk of that happening in the Klein fight, too, but Gamrot proved just too big and cumbersome for Klein to get space and tee off on him.

Ribovics might be better equipped for standing up to Gamrot’s wrestling. He’s not big, but not terribly undersized like Klein was. Ribovics takedown defense is seventy percent. Though, the best wrestler he’s ever faced (Loik Radzhabov) took him down eleven times on twenty one attempts.

This is going to be a race to see if Ribovics can deplete Gamrot with his striking quick enough to nullify the wrestling, or if Gamrot can deplete Ribovics enough with his wrestling to sap the power on Ribovics’ striking. I’m leaning towards Gamrot here, since his wrestling is better than anything Ribovics has seen and that Ribovics striking is more death by a thousand cuts (head kick win over Terrance McKinney aside) and Gamrot might be able to weather that early on route to imposing his wrestling.

Best bet: Mateuz Gamrot moneyline (-180)

Kevin Holland (+102) vs. Randy Brown (-122)

This is Holland’s first assignment of 2026. She managed five bouts last year (not for the first time in his career). In 2025 he went 2-3 with wins over Vicente Luque and Gunnar Nelson and losses to Reinier de Ridder, Daniel Rodriguez and Mike Malott. He’s 15-12 1 NC in UFC, despite only joining the company in 2020.

Brown was finished by Gabriel Bonfim in his main event debut last year (see it here). He earned that APEX main event with a KO over Nicolas Dalby. Prior to that he lost a split decision over Bryan Battle.

I think this is a bad match-up for Brown and I’m surprised to see the odds where they are. Holland will have some reach and muscle on Brown. Both men are pretty similar in the striking department, but I think Holland has more power.

When it comes to grappling, Holland is more slick and more likely to look for submissions.

Though Holland has had far more highs than Brown, he has had some pretty notable lows, too. Those usually come about through poor decision making. Brown is a lot more steady, albeit less spectacular. Brown is probably not going to do something to put himself in a lot of trouble. But, by the same token, he’s probably not going to do something wild and unexpected that could win the fight out of nowhere.

I’m going to go Holland, hoping the big stage (and the lesser known opponent) conspire for one of his highlight reel finishes.

Best bet: Kevin Holland moneyline (+102)

Tatiana Suarez (-155) vs. Loopy Godinez (+130)

Suarez took a unanimous decision over Amanda Lemos in September. She didn’t have things totally her own way in that fight, though. Prior to that, nothing went her way, in a five round drubbing she took from Zhang Weili. The Zhang loss, for the UFC Strawweight title, was Suarez’s first pro loss.

Godinez took a comfortable decision over Jessica Andrade in August. Before that she took a decision over Julia Polastri. She’s 6-2 in her last eight. The two losses were to Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba.

I’m really not sure what to make of Suarez at this stage of her career. She got tired late against Lemos and then got really lit up on the feet. She likely got tired because of how much Lemos made her work for takedowns. She went three for twelve in that fight.

I think there’s a chance Godinez makes things even more difficult, in that respect. Outside of Zhang, Godinez is probably the best wrestler Suarez has ever faced. Godinez is also a very willing striker, who has shown some nice development in that area. Against Andrade, Godinez landed 107 significant strikes.

If Godinez stuffs takedowns better than Lemos did and is able to land punches, we might see Suarez get worn down. I’m willing to take a chance on that for plus odds.

Best bet: Loopy Godinez moneyline (+130)

UFC 327 Early ‘Prelims’

Kelvin Gastelum (-250) vs. Vicente Luque (+205)

Gastelum won a very fun fight over Dustin Stoltzfus in September. He managed to out muscle Stoltzfus, which might have been helped by him missing weight (by a lot). Before that he lost a decision to Joe Pyfer. His other most recent win was weight assisted, too. He beat Daniel Rodriguez by decision, in Saudi Arabia in 2024, in a bout where Rodriguez was forced to fight at Middleweight due to Gastelum having no chance of making the Welterweight limit. Gastelum is now 14-10 1 NC in his UFC career.

Luque lost a lopsided decision to Joel Alvarez in his last fight. That was back in October. He was supposed to fight Kyle Daukaus here, but Daukaus has been moved onto the White House card (since he’s such a big star). Prior to the Alvarez fight, Luque lost to Kevin Holland by submission (see it here). Luque is now 16-8 in UFC action.

This is a fun fight and it’s great fight booking. Neither of these guys should be facing up and comers or top title contenders. They should be fighting guys like them, vets with name value who are close to being, but not completely, over the hill.

I think the weight class will really favor Gastelum in this fight. Luque fought at Middlweight back in his very early career, but he’s going against an opponent who is known for being heavy and using every ounce of his weight. Gastelum is probably going to weigh a lot more than Luque when they step into the cage. And I think we’re going to see that by how comfortably Gastelum will be able to press Luque up to the fence and keep him there.

Luque is taller and longer than Gastelum, but he won’t be as thick. Gastelum has the wrestling advantage, so Luque will likely need a finish to win this. Gastelum might have the best chin in MMA right now, so I don’t see him going down against Luque.

Best bet: Kelvin Gastelum moneyline (-250)

MarQuel Mederos (+150) vs. Chris Padilla (-180)

Mederos was due to fight Nazim Sadykhov at this event. However, due to injury, Padilla slides in to take that spot. Mederos is 3-0 in UFC, thus far, with decisions over Mark Choinski, Austin Hubbard and Landon Quinones.

Padilla is on a very nice run at the moment, going 4-0 in UFC and 7-0 overall. He debuted in 2024 with a first round submission win over James Llontop (see it here), while a +340 underdog. He then stopped Rongzhu (as a +200 underdog) and won a split decision over Jai Herbert. Last time out he TKO’d Ismael Bonfim (see it here).

Padilla has shown himself to be very crafty and smart, so far in his career. He’s also shown he has plus striking and grappling, which is rare for someone on this rung of the UFC ladder. Mederos has shown some good versatility so far, too, but he’s not done it against the same level of competition.

Mederos has a leg kick heavy offense (25 and 35 percent of his sig. strikes have been leg kicks in his last few fights). I think Padilla is very creative, though, and he will be able to mitigate some of that with checks, stance switches and maybe even a take down.

Best bet: Chris Padilla moneyline (-180)

Charles Radtke (-185) vs. Francisco Prado (+154)

Radtke showed off some improved grappling last time out, by taking out Daniel Frunza with an RNC (see it here). He also showed that he could do more than play rock ‘em sock ‘em robots in that fight. That prior approach had earned him wins over Gilbert Urbina and Matthew Semelsberger. But it had also led to big KO losses to Carlos Prates (see it here) and Mike Malott (see it here).

Prado is on a three fight losing skid. He’s also 1-4 in UFC. His last three losses were decisions to Nikolay Veretennikov, Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber. The Zellhuber fight earned him a Fight of the Night bonus. Many scored the Veretennikov fight for Prado (as did I).

I was very impressed by Radtke’s last outing. He felt very composed and just had a clear idea of everything he wanted to do. I’m not mad at a lot of Prado’s losses. He’s fought tough opposition. But he has been frustrating to watch and seemingly struggles to really assert himself and make convincing arguments for him winning bouts.

This clash of styles really favors Radtke, in my opinion. Radtke also has three inches of reach on Prado and he lands his sig. strikes with much more accuracy (54 percent versus 43 percent).

Best bet: Charles Radtke moneyline (-185)

UFC 327 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Azamat Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+450)

I think Murzakanov is a serious contender in the Light Heavyweight division. And I think Paul Costa’s move to the division is our of desperation and not because he is a genuine fit at this weight class. I don’t think he will be prepared for the power Murzakanov possess.

Two bet parlay: Reyes vs. Walker Over 1.5 rounds, Swanson vs. Landwehr Under 2.5 rounds (+450)

Reyes and Walker will be wild and there has to be a finish in here. However, I think that might be a bit of dancing and prancing in the first round and that a finish is probably going to come in the second period. I’m hoping it happens in the late second round and I’m pairing that hope with my hopes that Swanson and Landwehr ends early. I think Cub has been given a perfect opponent for his retirement fight and he’s got a great chance of stopping Landwehr early.

Josh Hokit vs. Curtis Blaydes First Minute Finish (+1100)

Hokit is an extremely annoying presence in MMA right now. But he’s also, sadly, very good. Blaydes hasn’t looked good over the past few years and I don’t think he’s durable or quick enough to last long against Hokit. I’ll take this and also hope that Blaydes might shock us all by silencing Hokit in under sixty seconds (and thus spare us from him getting any time on the mic).

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