What does the SackSEER model say about the top edge rushers in the 2026 NFL draft?

The 2026 NFL draft is a good one for edge rushers, with seven players projected to go in the first round. Our SackSEER projection system -- which predicts sack totals across a player's first five pro seasons -- agrees with the consensus on many of this year's top prospects. We also identify some strong candidates whose explosive characteristics make them worth taking a chance on despite mediocre collegiate sack production.

Projecting players from college to the pros is very difficult, and there's a wide range of possibilities. So while you might be surprised that no prospect is projected with more than six sacks per season, be aware that obviously some of them will end up as double-digit sack artists, while others will struggle and disappear from games for long stretches.

One major change in SackSEER for this year is that we have removed consideration of three-cone drill times. It is the biggest victim of declining participation in predraft drills, as only two edge rusher prospects ran the three-cone at the combine this year. We can't use it to consider players if no one is going to actually do it!

What follows is a ranking of the top edge rusher prospects for 2026, according to our model. We also identified one strong sleeper and one potentially overrated candidate.

Jump to:
Underrated | Overrated
Full SackSEER rankings
Methodology: How it works

David Bailey, Texas Tech

SackSEER projection: 26.6 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 7
Similar historical prospects: Khalil Mack, DeMarcus Ware

Bailey led the FBS with 14.5 sacks last season, and he's clearly the SackSEER favorite for 2026. He's the only prospect in this year's draft who combines excellent collegiate sack production with outstanding workouts, with a 4.50-second 40-yard dash, a 35-inch vertical and a 10-foot-9 broad jump.

Keldric Faulk, Auburn

SackSEER projection: 23.5 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 24
Similar historical prospects: Preston Smith, Everson Griffen

Faulk is the heaviest edge rusher in this year's class at 278 pounds. A 35-inch vertical is impressive for a player carrying his weight, as was the 4.67-second 40 he ran at his pro day.

Faulk turns 21 in September, so he is coming to the league young. He played all three of his collegiate seasons at Auburn, where he had 10 career sacks and started in his sophomore and junior seasons.

T.J. Parker, Clemson

SackSEER projection: 23.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 17
Similar historical prospects: Robert Quinn, Yetur Gross-Matos

Parker regressed to just five sacks as a junior in 2025 after having 11 as a sophomore in 2024, but that might make him undervalued entering this year's draft. There is a history of edge rushers who dominate as sophomores and then take a step back as juniors once opponents give them more attention.

Not to directly compare Parker to the best defensive player in the NFL, but Myles Garrett is an example, as he went from 12.5 sacks as a sophomore to 8.5 as a junior. Jadeveon Clowney went from 13 sacks as a sophomore to only three as a junior.

Arvell Reese, Ohio State

SackSEER projection: 23.0 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 3
Similar historical prospects: Micah Parsons, Kamerion Wimbley

Reese is a hard player for SackSEER to project because he was never a full-time edge rusher in college. A lot of people are comparing him to Parsons in that regard, though, and the SackSEER numbers agree.

Reese had 6.5 sacks last season but only 0.5 sacks as a sophomore in 2024. He did not do the vertical jump or broad jump at the combine, but his 4.46-second 40 was the fastest among the edge rushers.

Akheem Mesidor, Miami

SackSEER projection: 21.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 22
Similar historical prospects: Whitney Mercilus, Aldon Smith

Rueben Bain Jr., Miami

SackSEER projection: 21.0 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 16
Similar historical prospects: Nick Bosa, Greg Rousseau

These teammates come out with almost identical SackSEER measurements. Mesidor had more sacks last season (12.5 compared with Bain's 9.5), but the SRAM (sack rate as modified) variable takes into account that Mesidor was in his sixth season of college eligibility while Bain was only in his third. Mesidor will be 25 on draft day, while Bain doesn't turn 22 until September.

There has been a lot of discussion of Bain's short arm length (30⅞ inches), but that's not something we incorporate into these projections.

The underrated edge rusher

Malachi Lawrence, UCF

SackSEER projection: 18.5 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 78
Similar historical prospects: Joseph Ossai, Jamie Collins Sr.

Lawrence didn't have great stats in college, with only seven sacks as a senior in 2025. But SackSEER likes him as a sleeper prospect because he was outstanding in his workouts and thus scores very high on the explosion index. Lawrence ran a 4.52-second 40 with a 40-inch vertical and a 10-foot-10 broad jump.

Trey Moore (Texas) and Dani Dennis-Sutton (Penn State) are similar prospects to Lawrence, although slightly lower in SackSEER and in draft expectations. Dennis-Sutton was the only edge rusher at this year's combine with a longer broad jump (10-foot-11) than Lawrence.

The overrated edge rusher

Zion Young, Missouri

SackSEER projection: 16.4 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 30
Similar historical prospects: Uchenna Nwosu, Andre Branch

Young comes out as the most likely to disappoint of the potential first-round prospects. His collegiate sack production was middling, with only 6.5 sacks in his senior year and just five combined sacks in the three seasons before that. His 4.70-second 40 is also fairly average.

Methodology

SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted in the years 1998-2021 and measures the following:

• The edge rusher's projected draft position. Specifically, the rankings from ESPN's Scouts Inc.
• An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap and the broad jump in predraft workouts.
• A metric called "SRAM," which stands for sack rate as modified. SRAM measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college.
• The prospect's college passes defensed per game.

SackSEER was developed by Nathan Forster.