2026 NFL Draft: Fernando Mendoza is a top-end QB prospect in any class. Let's take a deep dive

Fernando Mendoza finished a perfect season at Indiana with a national championship and Heisman Trophy. An all-time final season for a quarterback that was the operator of one of the most effective offenses we’ve seen. Mendoza’s transfer from Cal couldn’t have gone any better. And while he was a surprise for many in the football-watching world, there were glimpses at Berkeley of a talented player with NFL-level tools and advanced operation. He just needed the right place and situation to hone in on the operation and an arm that showed real promise.

Luckily, that place and situation happened to be the same place that had his little brother Alberto was already on the roster, and also had one of the best coaches in the sport in Curt Cignetti.

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When Mendoza was tasked with operating Indiana’s well-designed and well-coached offense, he was constantly making the right decision, no matter what the task was. The ball was out and going to a correct read not only most of the time, but I would dare say an overwhelmingly majority of the time.

Everything is tidy when watching Mendoza operate. His feet get into a good position to throw the ball. His hitches are consistent and lead to a repeatable motion. That repeatable motion leads to repeatable results, too. Mendoza’s accuracy and ball placement are his winning traits. He has plenty of zip to get the ball where he wants to, but he maximizes that zip with where he locates the football and how early he gets the ball out. A solid chunk of the time his receivers are just getting into their route breaks when Mendoza is releasing the football.

Jump to evaluation focus:Why RPOs actually showcase potential | 1 route that reflects strengths as a passer | Toughness and pressure mitigation | Works over the middle and in high-leverage situations | How Cal helped prepare for Indiana, NFL | Nitpicks even contain positives | Effective on move as thrower and runner | Translates to any offense, especially Raiders | Final verdict/player comp

Fernando Mendoza’s work on RPOs at Indiana illustrates his potential

We’ll start with the run-pass options. Indiana did like to use a good deal of RPO concepts in their offense, a large chunk of those being what I call “packaged” concepts with a run play and a bubble or smoke screen attached to that run play.

Every offense uses RPOs. Indiana was very good at running sound variations of them (especially relative to the bastardization of these concepts that I’ve seen from other offenses over the past decade or so). Not every RPO is built the same, and the read is different for quarterbacks on them, too. They can be simple “advantage” reads, like a QB throwing a hitch or out route against a cornerback that is playing off-coverage. It can be to “block” an unblocked player, like using a bubble to occupy an overhang defender on a zone run or an in-breaker attached to a duo run to to make the safety wrong no matter what he decides.

Some quarterbacks and offenses have to rely on RPOs for consistent production. Some just sprinkle it in to alleviate their run game and throw another slew of concepts at defenses, which is how the NFL typically uses them. The reliance on RPOs for some quarterback prospects can be a significant negative working against them, because they simply don’t show the consistent ability to operate when having to drop back and read out a concept and defense without something to streamline their process.

Even on RPOs, there are still traits, processing and attributes that evaluators can glean. Does the quarterback make the right decision on these “simple” reads? Is the quarterback able to get the ball out quickly and with friendly ball placement to maximize the room his pass catcher has? How is the quarterback's footwork? Is he able to change arm angles?

In Mendoza’s case — even before getting into the true dropback concepts that he was asked to operate in situations like third down, red zone and two minute — these simpler RPO concepts were also a way to highlight his skills.

Mendoza was also consistent on underneath stuff, especially the bubbles and smoke screens that Indiana packaged with their run game.

he's a big guy but is able to get the ball out quickly and to a good spot. I really like watching his footwork on these throws. pic.twitter.com/bhjqw8j52q

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 9, 2026

Despite being such a big player at 6-foot-5 and 236 pounds, Mendoza constantly gets the ball out quickly (and accurately) on these packaged concepts, even if there was muck in his face. He’s able to speed up his operation and stay accurate even when throwing with awkward bases.

The RPOs that were packaged with deeper stuff were so successful because Mendoza was able to get the ball out so quickly and accurately, and with plenty of zip to get the ball to his target before the defender can close. It also showed off a willingness to work in tight spaces, and a knack for locating the ball away from closing defenders when needed. Especially when operating over the middle on the packaged in-breakers.

1 route in particular reflects Mendoza’s strengths as a passer

A decent-sized chunk of those RPOs featured out routes, a route Mendoza is an absolute machine in throwing. No matter if the out route was quick, deep, to the slot, on dropback concepts, or packaged as an RPO advantage read, Mendoza was as automatic throwing and completing out routes as I’ve seen from a college prospect.

I pulled clips from six games of Mendoza for this article, and I can only think of one out route where his receiver didn’t have a chance at the football because of an iffy throw or the defender making a play on the ball. Considering the sheer amount of out routes that Mendoza threw, that’s impressive.

Fernando Mendoza is a machine throwing out routes. Quick outs, slot outs, field outs, dropbacks, RPOs, you name it. He constantly gets the ball out promptly and with outside ball placement. pic.twitter.com/wQCfTjvvF7

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 9, 2026

These routes are a quality way to highlight what Mendoza is as a thrower: brutally efficient, accurate, with a metronome in his head calibrated to the timing of a given play. They can also highlight his arm strength that is firmly in the plus territory, and even touches a higher tier at times.

The first play against Oregon during this 2025 regular season was another one of those throws that showed Mendoza’s arm (as well as timing and ball placement). This is called a deep “hinge” route that requires the quarterback to push the ball down the field, preferably early and with outside ball placement so the wide receiver can work into the open space and away from a defender. If this route is thrown late or inside at the NFL level, the quarterback might be the only player left to chase down the defender going the other way.

Mendoza works to the route, throws it well early, puts it on the outside, and does it well within the timing of the play and with a pass rusher bearing down.

Fernando Mendoza working to a deep Hinge route (opposite hash) and throws it with great timing and accuracy. Thrown before the receiver enters his break and with ideal outside ball placement. pic.twitter.com/d8VTkLCG5A

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 8, 2026

Don’t undersell Mendoza’s toughness or ability to operate in chaos either

What’s so promising about Mendoza is that he can access his arm strength without a perfect pocket. He’s able to change arm slots and complete throws from flat-footed or a straddled position. You can see it when he’s throwing quick passes, but also when he has to deal with a free running pass rusher or blitzer on deeper throws. Pressure doesn’t make Mendoza’s operation go askew; he is more than willing to stand in there.

Mendoza’s toughness is one of his strongest attributes. Don’t let his interview persona fool you: Mendoza is a high-end competitor who keeps coming back even after taking big hits or a negative play.

With pressure in his face, Mendoza is willing and able to push the ball and constantly finds success. He’s seldom late with a throw and his eyes constantly go to the right place with an answer. Even when he does get hit, Mendoza’s size and strength allow him to at least get rid of the football and not eat a sack.

Mendoza can work over the middle too, and in high-pressure situations

A lot of the throws I’ve highlighted so far have been to the outside, which is a product of what was called at Indiana. But Mendoza shows an aptitude for working between the numbers when needed and can drive the football.

Note the two seam throws in a two-minute drill against Penn State in the video below. Indiana was down four points with under two minutes to play and with a running clock. The drive was capped off by a couple of great catches, and a brilliant connection between Mendoza under pressure and Omar Cooper Jr.’s all-time twirling grab in the back of the end zone.

Down 4 to Penn State with under 2 minutes to play and after taking a sack on the first play of the drive. This is how Fernando Mendoza and Indiana respond. Some dynamite Seam throws by Mendoza and great catches from his teammates on this drive.

All capped off with a TD throw… pic.twitter.com/UbXXGIaZQv

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 9, 2026

I always take discussions of intangibles with a grain of salt, but there’s something to be said about how Mendoza operated in the highest pressure situations for Indiana this season. There’s the two-minute drive against Penn State; his response after a pick 6 at Oregon (which was still a good decision, especially under pressure); two dynamite passes in the second half to open up a total fistfight against Ohio State (another game Indiana trailed); and the throws and go-ahead running touchdown against Miami in the national championship. Indiana’s offense faced the fourth-toughest offensive schedule in the country per FEI’s rating, and Mendoza seldom felt overwhelmed. And when he made a mistake, he was able to respond on the very next drive.

Mendoza’s iffy surroundings at Cal helped prepare him to shine at Indiana

He improved on his sack rate by leaving his abysmal surroundings in Berkley for Bloomington. His sack rate went from 9.4% in 2024 to a much more tolerable 5.8% (which was close to his freshman starting season rate of 6.2% in 2023). Mendoza has the burst to get to the edge to at least get out of harm’s way, but he kind of knows what he is as a runner: He isn’t shifty so he doesn’t attempt to make anyone miss in space and prefers to get the first down and get down.

When Mendoza feels heat closing in the pocket, he doesn’t attempt any hero scrambles, preferring instead to try and get rid of the football. And if he can’t, then just goes down making the same face as John Cena was when tapping out in his final match.

The issues at Cal weren’t just with the talent level, either. Indiana had a way more sound offense that gave him answers on everything they ran or in case of emergency. Too often at Cal, Mendoza was forced to hold onto the ball or eat a sack because their pass concepts didn’t have a valid safety outlet or checkdown, or the RPO advantage read got absolutely smothered.

A reel of some sacks on Fernando Mendoza pic.twitter.com/WPxR5aXJaz

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) May 22, 2025

But those Cal days weren’t a total negative. In fact, how Mendoza was able to circumvent and succeed despite his less-than-ideal surroundings is why I had him as my No. 1 quarterback last May. Even then, you could see Mendoza’s top-tier accuracy and timing, as well as his ability to consistently operate in high-leverage situations like third and fourth down.

It's a lot of fun to watch Fernando Mendoza operate on 3rd and 4th down.

He shows off a real understanding of the presnap operation and how to sort things out postsnap. And that's before you get to see his arm zip, aggressiveness, and ball placement on some of these throws. pic.twitter.com/0bTieFP1sJ

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) May 6, 2025

I keep talking about those moments in high-leverage situations because Mendoza’s aggressiveness, which he taps into constantly at the right time, keeps defenses honest. And it got rewarded at all the right times, including my favorite throw of his: a third-and-2 launch to Charlie Becker (a talented player in his own right) against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship while trailing in the third quarter.

Have referred to this play a few times on shows, but this is probably my favorite Fernando Mendoza throw of the season.

3rd & 2 and down 4 in the 3rd quarter in what's been a fistfight of a game against Ohio State. Rather than instantly defaulting to an underneath option (which… pic.twitter.com/lbJrdFw4vv

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 9, 2026

Indiana, of course, was able to finish this drive with a touchdown in what turned out to be the winning points. That score was a reception by Elijah Sarratt on a slot fade route with a back shoulder location. Back shoulders are another strong point of Mendoza’s game, another throw type that highlights his combination of zip and ball placement.

Even when you nitpick Mendoza, he gives you reasons to be excited

If I had to nitpick Mendoza, it would be that his deep throws too often can be more of a line drive than a proper arc that his receiver can run underneath. Those line drive throws benefit him in the red zone and on those back shoulders, but they can also take catchable yards out of deep throws.

Having said that, Mendoza isn’t outright bad with his deep ball. He has real range and is willing to launch throws, even if the arm isn’t truly elite. That third-and-2 against Ohio State is a great example: Mendoza could very well work underneath to his tight end on that throw, something he has done consistently enough in the past.

But instead, Mendoza read the play out properly. The post route by Becker is an “alert” route for the quarterback, meaning it’s not always a live route to worth considering under a large swath of circumstances. But under certain conditions the quarterback should “alert” that route as live and be ready to go bombs away.

So it’s a deep throw that was on time and properly located (again). It was an aggressive read, but the absolute proper one. He did it with pressure in his face. And it was when his team was down in the second half against the defending national champions. Why get the first down to his tight end on a bang-bang play when he can get five first downs in one go?

Mendoza is effective on the move too

Mendoza’s accuracy holds up when he has to throw on the move, too. He’s effective throwing left or right, and willing to work against the grain when needed, whether that’s creating a throw or getting to a backside route on a bootleg or sprint-out concept. And pressure doesn’t get to him in these situations either. Mendoza will keep attacking the edge even with a defender coming at him.

Fernando Mendoza's consistency shows up when throwing on the move, too. Whether it's in structure or out of it, he is able to change arm slots and keep his accuracy when throwing across his body. Even working left.

These movement throws and the clips of Mendoza flipping his hips… pic.twitter.com/MFkxzt2fLX

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 9, 2026

Mendoza has real burst that makes him a valid threat on quarterback read concepts, which means he has to be honored as a runner, too. He scrambled at a decent clip (6.2% for his college career), and was highly efficient when doing so. In fact, in 2025 Mendoza was used as a runner (scrambles and designed rushes) 64 times. His 71.9% success rate on those runs was first among all FBS quarterbacks. Among the 761 FBS quarterbacks since 2019 with 200 or more pass attempts and 40 or more runs, Mendoza’s success rate ranks fifth.

Why Mendoza’s game will translate to any NFL offense, but especially the Raiders’

That operation in true passing situations, combined with the size, toughness and tools, is why Mendoza’s game is going to translate to any NFL offense. Yes, even after being primarily in the shotgun for his college career, which is more a byproduct of the modern college game than anything Mendoza can’t do.

He’s a good athlete with clean footwork and is an obvious hard worker. He will be just fine in working from under center more often under (presumably) new Las Vegas Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak. And he did have experience turning his back to the defense on play-action concepts, but just when working out of the pistol. (Funny enough, even though Mendoza was under center for just 2.5% of his snaps in 2025, that was still in the 47th percentile amongst 413 qualifying FBS quarterbacks since 2020.)

Speaking of advanced stats (all per TruMedia), Mendoza had a season for the ages in 2025. A whopping 58.7% of his dropbacks resulted in a successful play for Indiana, which is in the 99th percentile quarterback seasons since 2020. He racked up EPA in the 97th percentile. Mendoza really felt like a supreme point guard, distributing the ball all over the place throughout the game for others to make big plays before picking and choosing his spots to hit daggers. Chris Paul isn’t the first name that comes to mind when watching Fernando Mendoza, but here we are. Think of the out routes as Paul hitting those midrange jumpers.

I think Mendoza will transition nicely into Kubiak’s offense thanks to his ability to operate on passing downs and also throw consistently on the move. Mendoza is actually an excellent fit for this type of offensive scheme, one that thrives on a lot of throws with timing and a lack of conscience from its quarterbacks as they take another excursion on a throw over the middle. I think that’s an aspect of Mendoza’s game that hasn’t been tapped into yet, and something that will fit his timing and ability to drive the football well.

The Raiders adding a veteran center in Tyler Linderbaum also makes me optimistic about insulating Mendoza early on until he is able to handle more. Kubiak’s offense is a run-first operation, which will help the offensive line grow together too, and the presence of Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers gives Mendoza much better weapons than highly drafted quarterbacks usually enjoy.

Las Vegas signed Kirk Cousins to hold down the fort until Mendoza is ready to take over. I think that time will come early.

Final verdict on Fernando Mendoza: Very good franchise-level QB

Mendoza is an intelligent player that stands out when the lights shine brightest. He’s such a consistent operator that it can seem boring at times, but that boringness is what leads to the big plays in the big moments. He puts himself in position to make those plays because his process is streamlined, and his aspects of his game, like his footwork, keep getting better.

What I really like about Mendoza’s player profile is that he doesn’t take away much from an offensive menu. He can execute every throw. Again, those out routes to the field and seam balls over the middle are promising indicators of his arm strength. He understands the intent of concepts and avoids big mistakes. He’s a good athlete that can be used as a runner or for movement throws. Hell, he’s even big enough for quarterback sneaks. He has already started a good amount of games while not being old for a prospect.

He excels in the harder aspects of playing the quarterback position. Things like pre-snap operation, play changes, handling of motions and shifts, and protection changes are all aspects of the position that Mendoza has already shown he can handle. And often in the most tense of game situations imaginable, too.

I don’t have him in the same tier as prospects like Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence because I think Mendoza’s traits are all more good than excellent. His deep balls can have an inconsistent arc, and his greatest strength of playing so on time might limit his ability to tap into something more because he might not have those tippy top tools of those other guys.

But his operation is so excellent a lot of the time. And he’s good, and even very good, at a lot. He’s shown the willingness and ability to tap into more throughout his college career, which is an encouraging indicator for further growth.

I think he can firmly be in what I consider the Tier 2 of NFL quarterbacks for a long time. Matt Ryan is the name I originally put down in my deep dive on Mendoza last May, and it’s the name that continues to come to mind as my potential comparison. From build (Mendoza is even bigger than Ryan) to arm (Mendoza touches a tad higher, but Ryan had a little better touch), to throwing on the move, to their psycho competitiveness and toughness. Mendoza is a top-end quarterback prospect in any type of draft class, not just in a down cycle like this year. In any class, this is a top-10 lock profile that teams should be giddy as a Fernando Mendoza interview to have as their franchise guy.