3 Polymarket traders made a timely bet on a US-Iran ceasefire

Three newly created wallets profited a combined $484,575 on Polymarket betting that the US and Iran would agree to a ceasefire by Tuesday, in the latest event to raise suspicion of insider trading.

The wallets were created and funded on Tuesday and had no prior onchain activity before betting on Polymarket’s “US x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market, blockchain data shared by Lookonchain revealed on Wednesday.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

The "yes" bets were placed at probabilities between 2.9% and 10.3%.

One Polymarket trader made their first trade on the “US x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, roughly eight and a half hours before US President Donald Trump confirmed that a ceasefire agreement had been made in a post on Truth Social at 10:32 pm UTC.

The other two traders placed their first bets at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday.

Source: Lookonchain

The bets were paid out after both the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, although neither side has ruled out the possibility of further military action.

Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing uses for crypto and are consistently surpassing $10 billion in monthly trading volume.

However, lawmakers and regulators around the world have heavily scrutinized prediction platforms over fears of rising insider trading and market manipulation.

Polymarket insider trading alleged in the US and Israel

In January, US lawmakers introduced a bill to restrict government officials from trading on prediction market platforms after one Polymarket user profited over $400,000 on a market related to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being captured by US forces.

The successful bet raised suspicion of insider knowledge.

Related: Polymarket takes down market on missing US pilot after backlash

In February, Israeli authorities arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets related to Israel striking Iran on Polymarket in June 2025.

One of those arrested was a member of Israel’s military.

Polymarket and Kalshi have implemented their own measures to spot and deter insider trading.

In February, Kalshi said it formed an independent advisory committee and partnered with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs “to detect, investigate, and address market abuse.”

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