Best value bets for UFC 327: Jiří Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg

UFC 327 is Saturday at the Kaseya Center in Miami, and it’s a fun card with some notable names, headlined by Jiří Procházka and Carlos Ulberg facing off for the vacant light heavyweight title. Let’s jump in and see if we can find some actionable value in one of the UFC’s marquee events.

Jiří Procházka (-120) vs. Carlos Ulberg (+100)

(Fightnomics)

This could escalate into a banger, and at light heavyweight, bangers don’t last too long. The first thing to notice is that neither fighter has landed many takedowns. In fact, they hardly ever attempt them, and both have above average takedown defense. This suggests they will remain standing for extended periods.

And that’s where things get interesting. There are similar metrics on both sides of the tape. Both have landed plenty of knockdowns, with above average knockdown rates. They use an identical pace of distance striking, and both have very high offensive accuracy. That’s a lot of strong metrics in the offensive categories. However, both have below-average striking defense, relying on historically solid chins to get them through firefights.

While Procházka is younger, he’s more experienced and has more wear and tear, so predicting who will land the first clean, fight-altering shot is hard. That’s keeping the betting line very close. I see Ulberg’s stats as slightly superior, but his strength of schedule isn’t quite the same. It’s a toss-up for me, but I’d be tempted to take a small flier on an upset TKO, even though the models won’t go that far.

Best bet: Official pass, but FDNGTD (-340) is a candidate for parlays as Jiri rarely lets judges get involved in his fights

Mateusz Gamrot (-190) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+155)

(Fightnomics)

You know by now I like to back strong wrestlers. But finding betting value in them requires other key variables about the opponent. Gamrot is a wrestle-first fighter, wasting no time initiating contact. He might not get the first attempt, but he’ll keep trying to get the fight down until he does. And once there, he can hold position and stay busy enough to safely win rounds. Of established fighters on a very deep card, only Tatiana Suarez and Curtis Blaydes spend more Octagon time controlling opponents on the ground than Gamrot.

Ribovics clearly prefers to stay on the feet. However, statistically, his metrics for accuracy, defense and power don’t stand out much. In some cases, they are actually worse than Gamrot’s. That’s encouraging if we want to back Gamrot, as the risk of a walk-off knockout is less. More importantly, the insane pace of striking that Ribovics uses could work against him versus such an eager wrestler. You can’t throw a strike every other second while standing without opening yourself up to someone hellish level changes.

Best bet: Gamrot for the win, and we’ll probably have to wait three rounds for it

Azamat Murzakanov (-185) vs. Paulo Costa (+150)

(Fightnomics)

Like the main event, this one is more likely to remain mostly on the feet. And where it counts, Murzakanov has the edge in key metrics like knockdown rate, accuracy and defense. While he’s over the 35-year-old threshold, Costa is just barely behind him. More importantly, Costa has a big liability in his head-strike defense, which is a dangerous train to carry into a fight with such a powerful puncher. And that doesn’t even account for Costa moving up a weight class.

While ground time may not be a factor, if it is, it’s more likely to be Murzakanov who initiates it. That’s a wild card, but if he needs a way to secure a close round, that outlet remains. Still, it’s the consistent advantages on the feet that have me seeing value in the favorite.

Best bet: Murzakanov to win