Bitcoin rallies on report of Iran ceasefire talks, Algorand extends gains

Bitcoin BTC$69,881.10 climbed to near $70,000 as traders reacted to signs of possible de-escalation in the Iran war and amid a short squeeze that liquidated more than $270 million in shorts.

Crypto prices rose, along with equity index futures and equities, as Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire. The report raised hopes that hostilities could ease, potentially lowering the risks for ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.

That is improving appetite for risk assets across markets, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell. The retreat is being amplified as reports suggest Pakistan is brokering what’s being called the “Islamabad Accord.”

Under the deal, a ceasefire would take effect immediately and the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. Nevertheless, markets still need convincing.

On Polymarket, the odds of a ceasefire this month are at around 30%, up from 18% before the Islamabad Accord came to light. Oil prices remain elevated, and the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

If a ceasefire materializes and the conflict winds down, a relief rally could further benefit risk assets. For now, though, traders appear to be treating the headlines with skepticism.

Derivatives Positioning

• Notional open interest (OI) in bitcoin and ether (ETH) has risen by 7% and 11%, respectively, outpacing spot price gains. This suggests fresh capital inflows into the market, likely chasing bullish exposure, as both funding rates and cumulative volume deltas for BTC and ETH remain positive.
• Among altcoins, ADA, AVAX and LINK stand out with double-digit increases in open interest alongside positive funding rates. In contrast, sentiment appears bearish for BCH and HYPE, which are sporting negative funding rates.
• Bitcoin's volatility meltdown continues, signaling market calm and supporting bullish price action. The 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has dropped below 50% for the first time since early February. Ether's index, EVIV, also fell to the lowest level in weeks.
• On Deribit, bitcoin's $60,000 put and the $80,000 call are the most popular options bets, each boasting a notional open interest of $1.40 billion at press time. These, therefore, are key levels to watch, as they represent areas where traders are heavily positioned for either downside protection or upside participation.
• Volatility, therefore, could pick up sharply if prices move outside of the $60,000-$80,000 range.
• Broadly speaking, the mood in options market remains cautious despite bullish hints in futures. BTC and ETH puts remain pricier than calls, a sign of sticky demand for downside hedging. Some of the bias for puts also stems from persistent overwriting of calls, a yield-generating strategy.

Token Talk

• Algorand’s ALGO token has surged nearly 50% in the past 30 days after a Google Quantum AI research paper highlighted its approach to quantum-resistant security.
• The Google report examined how blockchains can defend against future threats from quantum computers, which might be able to break current encryption methods. Algorand drew notable attention for its use of FALCON, a post-quantum signature scheme selected by U.S. standards body NIST.
• The network already uses the system for features like state proofs, which confirm ledger updates, and for certain transaction types.
• ALGO rose from about $0.08 to near $0.12 so far, bringing its market capitalization past $1 billion. It’s up more than 7.3% in the last 24 hours amid a wider market rally.